zack - 4c ☯︎

@astraffon 🫡

"But the biggest prediction markets today are not primarily built around trading efficiency. Kalshi, for example, operates more like a square sportsbook than a sharp sportsbook. Its model is built around bringing in price-insensitive takers and letting market makers trade against them....Polymarket appears to be moving in the same direction. They went from charging no fees to roughly 1.5%+ on takes. Volume only dropped about 20%."

@RetardedGambler enjoying the ride :)

motion!

@XOXOTHANKU @4castersbet lees of risk/win x2

@4caster20 @4castersbet how do you guys calculate matched volume??

@no_crystal_ball crazy pull

@4caster20 szn 2 survivor contestant nick brown

can't lie the ag of washington cooked with this one

@dfsx42 too humble

I am not the adam in the story, just another adam

@real_fats stay up fats!!

Thanks and appreciation to all who have been supporting me.

@nigeleccles states keep sports betting feds get sports insurance prediction parlay contracts

@4caster20 This is largely the same court that ruled sports betting was a states rights issue in 2018

predicting how the supreme court votes for legal national sports betting

@thedeutsch96 crank dat

@4caster20 Turn yo speakers down bruh

The beauty of prediction markets is that there’s some market in the world where YOU have an edge.

@RetardedGambler we will have markets on how each justice will vote

@4caster20 ASIAN LADY 90-1 TO APPROVE IT

@retardedhustler ice ice baby!

just realized cfb title game is during ice in barcelona who’s gettin turnt

@4caster20 DELETE THIS

In a few years, we’ll look back at the idea that the CFTC would regulate sports betting long term and have a good laugh.

@DustinGouker my hunch is generic polls will of 10,000 semi informed people answering honestly would be more accurate than the PMs if you assume there isn't some whale with inside info in the market

Like do you see a market resolve on Maduro on Polymarket and say “wow, interesting, I don’t need to know anything else”? No, you are going to look to primary sources or the news for more context.

The idea that a yes or no market replaces the news is completely overblown. Congrats, you know a thing happened. You have no idea how or why. Mainstream media fails us a lot but binary markets are still informed by the news. And provide us more than a headline with no context.

681M in matched volume for a prediction market ain't what it used to be. And that is 𝘴𝘰 𝘣𝘦𝘢𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘧𝘶𝘭. Thank you to all of the chads who used 4casters this year. We appreciate you so much. Happy 2026 :)

@chattim3 @RetardedGambler almost back 🤫😼

@RetardedGambler Doesn’t appear to be a site left to bounce on anyways

IF JAKE PAUL LOSE IM FINNA BOUNCE ON MY 4CASTERS BALANCE PLEASE DONT TELL ZACK 🤫 🤐