A.J. Button

Hello new followers who came from @BrianTycangco's post! Here are the things you can expect me to tweet about on this account:

@eftegarie @benln yes

@benln @AJButton2 we should join sometime

Cafe Cursor in Bangkok

@eftegarie So many options all over Bangkok

spacious apartment for rent 64sqm, 1 bed, 1 bath located in Phrom Phong $830/month only in Bangkok

@Sino_Market China has gone absolutely NUTS for OpenClaw.

🇨🇳🦞Tencent’s QClaw Launches Full Public Beta Tencent’s PR Director Zhang Jun announced that QClaw is now in full public beta with no invitation required. Users can download the latest version from the official site and complete installation in 20 seconds to issue commands to “OpenClaw.” The new version integrates multi-platform remote control channels, including WeChat, QQ, Feishu, and Alibaba's DingTalk. #CHINA #TECH #AI #TENCENT $TCEHY #OPENCLAW (mktnews.com/flashDetail.ht…)

@SwissKnifeInv They’re essentially starting a new, massive business here. They are aiming for the business to become as large as the legacy e-commerce business. Of course profit’s gonna decline for a while.

$BABA Q3 earnings dropped this morning. My take: the thesis isn't just intact - it's accelerating. Yes, GAAP net income fell 66%. EBITA down 57%. Free cash flow dropped year-over-year butI don't care and here's why. Management is deliberately forgoing short-term profits to widen their moat and most Western investors can't understand the size of their dominance. This is exactly what the SKI framework looks for: price dislocation and leadership willing to sacrifice today's margins for tomorrow's ecosystem dominance. The AI Cloud story is getting louder: Cloud revenue from external customers grew 35% this quarter - up from 29% last quarter. That's acceleration, not deceleration. AI-related revenue posted triple-digit YoY growth for the 10th consecutive quarter. 10-straight quarters. Token consumption on their model studio platform grew 6x in three months. Eddie Wu's 5-year target: $100B in combined cloud and AI external revenue. Management just gave you the conservative roadmap. T-Head chips matter more than people realize: 470,000 proprietary AI chips shipped. 60%+ going to external commercial customers. Annual revenue already at RMB 10B. In a world where AI compute is scarce and geopolitical risk around chip supply is real - Alibaba is the only Chinese cloud company building its own silicon. This won't stay a side project for much longer. Quick Commerce is the consumption engine that never gets full: 56% revenue growth. AAC base grew 150M in 2025 alone, more than the prior 3 years combined. Target: RMB 1T GMV by FY28, profitable by FY29. The short-term EBITA hit isn't ideal, but to widen the long-term moat its necessary. The balance sheet gives them room to do all of this: $42.5B net cash. They're not borrowing to invest. They're deploying their own cash. That's the kind of optionality I want behind a decade long thesis. I entered $BABA around $130 with a $300 price target and a ~32% IRR expectation. Everything from AI cloud acceleration to the T-Head supply story tighten my conviction. Long-term thinking requires patience. Find something else if you're not ready to wait. $BABA 🇨🇳

@Babadookey Yep

Still bullish af on $BABA. Nothing’s changed IMO. Management going all in on Qwen as their new “everything ecommerce app” is the right decision. The “browse and search” model is already dead. Just that nobody knows it yet. Agentic commerce is the next evolution.

started looking heavily at the tech scene in china for inspiration on what to build in the west

@CompoundinGirl Alibaba Intelligence

Alibaba changing its name to AI baba? $BABA

@dudedal9 they have 400 enterprise customers they're selling them to!

@AJButton2 What level is the mass scale? 10 chips a month?

Earnings release insight: T-Head--Alibaba's chip segment--is now reportedly producing GPUs at mass scale. $BABA

@EquityBrian They have guided for improved EBITDA. I like that.

Maybe some of us (myself included) thought they were sandbagging a bit more than they were. Fair enough. But the quarter wasn’t bad, it just looks bad on a headline basis because of the divestitures and a late Lunar New Year that pulled activity out of the December quarter and into March. — Strip out Sun Art and Intime and you’re at 9% like-for-like growth. — Quick commerce grew 56%, right about where I expected. — Cloud grew 36% and management now has a $100 billion revenue target by 2030 (INCREDIBLE!) Cloud profitability keeps improving quarter over quarter and I think that only accelerates from here as we’re already seeing price increases flow through. That being said, the next quarter will be very important… Lunar New Year spending falls into it this year, Qwen crossed 300 million MAUs with 140 million users trying AI-driven shopping in February alone, and management themselves flagged strong momentum heading into Q4. I think the ecommerce numbers look noticeably better next quarter. Broader market is very weak today and has been very weak and I think that’s weighing on this more than anything fundamental. Still very much a bull.

I wrote a whole post on $BABA back in January walking through exactly what management was telegraphing on the pre-earnings sell-side calls… They told the street to lower the bar on basically everything. Cloud, ecommerce, margins, all of it. And then they delivered pretty much right in line with what they guided. So I’m genuinely confused why the market is acting surprised… coughlincap.com/p/alibabas-pre…

@CDInewsletter Thoughts on Granite REIT?

Morguard Residential might be the cheapest way to buy apartments in North America. EV: $2.6B No. of suites: 13,089 Cost per suite: $198.6k 59% of suites are located in the U.S., too, meaning you're paying ~$145k USD for each of those units. They rent for an average of $1900 per month. The 1% rule is alive and well with Morguard, and all without a single minute of active management. $MRG.un pays a generous 4.6% distribution and has grown the payout 7 of the last 10 years. FFO payout ratio was 42% in 2025, which is among the lowest in the sector. Management thinks shares are undervalued too, as evidenced by the buyback. At the end of 2022 there were 39.1M shares outstanding. Today? 34.9M. That's a 10.8% decline in just over 3 years. I mention MRG.un today because in less than a month shares have fallen more than 10%, going from almost $19 each to under $17. Not quite at a 52-week low, but getting there. $17 puts us at about 10x fwd. FFO, which I think is very cheap for a REIT with Morguard's reasonable leverage profile. So, in short, we have a REIT that: - Trades at a significant discount to peers using just about every metric - Has a conservative balance sheet - Is repurchasing shares - Has a nice record of distribution growth, with a low payout ratio - Has potential to eventually be taken private by the parent I'm interested in buying more, and will do a deeper dive sometime in April on the newsletter.

🇯🇵🇮🇷 Japan’s PM Takaichi on Iran: "Global economy is about to experience a huge hit because of Iran" Talk about the understatement of the century. This isn't a blip; it's the mother of all energy crises barreling toward us at full speed. x.com/clashreport/st…

@ConvexDispatch I remember buying Google at $165 on a dip that took it to a low of $159. Almost bottom ticked it!

Missed $GOOG at $180 in 2025? Same FUD. Same "dying business" narrative. Same hidden AI infrastructure story. I think $BABA at $125 is the same setup. Here's what the market is missing: → $30B+ of hidden value in AI stakes (Moonshot AI ~30-36%, MiniMax ~14%) → Cloud growing 36% YoY with triple-digit AI revenue → T-Head IPO could unlock $50B+ (the "Waymo moment") → Trading at 18x earnings while MAG7 trades 25-30x The market sees a Chinese retailer. I see an AI infrastructure company with a venture portfolio carried at zero. I wrote a deep dive on why this could be a 2x+ opportunity from here: Disclosure: Long $BABA. One of my largest positions. Added more today!

@lazyboyinvestor @SeekingTheValue lol

@AJButton2 @SeekingTheValue I sold at $166 will buy back at $80 bro

Growing at rates of 36% only in the midst of the AI ​​wave is a mediocre result $BABA should be 60%.

@eftegarie exterminate the regime, yes

@AJButton2 ok i thought you said “Not kill a few, not blow up some buildings, EXTERMINATE.”

Somebody want to tell me what the freaking off ramp is here? Israel and Iran both think that the other country is trying to *EXTERMINATE* them. Not kill a few, not blow up some buildings, EXTERMINATE. How do you get two such countries to stop fighting? Even if the U.S. pulls out it seems unlikely it will be able to get these two countries to kiss and make up.

@andrewsun_83 LOL

@AJButton2 Did you see her reply? LOL x.com/i/status/20345…

I hadn't considered the 'SpaceX in space' part but, yeah.

@eftegarie no, exterminate the regime

@AJButton2 hmm never heard an iranian government official claim israel wanted to ‘exterminate’ iranians, i could be ignorant on this tho

@eftegarie In Iran's case, only the people in power fear extermination. In Israel, the fear is more widely felt.

@AJButton2 I’ve never heard of any Iranian think Israel wants to “exterminate” them. However, many Israelis have been led to believe Iran want to exterminate them.

@buccocapital Well said.

We will put these people in prison long before they achieve their delusional, ego-driven, masturbatory dream of world domination Dario just got stuffed into a locker by the US Government. These people need to read a fucking book on the way the world actually works

@MarioNawfal The stakes are indeed high.

If the Iranian regime capitulates, the U.S. will come out stronger than ever as it gains control of the world’s most important energy chokepoint If the Iranian regime survives militarily, the American empire could begin its decline as it gets dragged into another forever war

@LivingITMoney Don't watch minute by minute stock market swings, it'll just freak you out.

Climbing back, can $BABA go red to green??