Arthur Baker

@AaronBergman18 This whole post is unnecessary. First you absolutely do not need to repost racist anonymous messages. Second, how much searching did you do before accepting their main point? Loads of neighbourhoods in London including mine disprove this (Peckham, Lewisham, Brixton)

the last sentence of the first paragraph seems basically true (evidence: I tried to find counter-examples and could not), although I just wouldn’t be personally terrified to live in PG County as one example. On the “what if…actual impossibility” question: I’m happy to play along, and the honest answer is that I don’t know what to do; it’s genuinely non-obvious. Like supposing that is an actual constraint, first thing is that I’d want to conceptually and empirically separate the “black people tend to be victims” phenomenon from “black people tend to be perpetrators *even controlling for who they encounter irl* (ie not just because they run into people who are themselves more likely to be victims)” phenomenon - “black % vs crime rates” correlations don’t tell you whether one or the other or both are the important drivers But fine, let’s suppose, as I think people like the anonymous responder think, that the second phenomenon is substantial (ie even if you yourself don’t have any risk factors for being a victim, you’re more likely to be a victim in the presence of more black people); ok well what are the literal possible policy options and which one is least bad? We could do slavery We could do segregation We could deport black people We could subject black people to legal discrimination on the basis of race in various ways We could do nothing We could try woke We could try various policies that reduce crime but don’t punish anyone for race per se (note that this may lead to disparate impact) And my genuine, literal best guess is that *something* in the last option umbrella is best (ofc that doesn’t specify a ton, it’s a massive category). I don’t know how to prove that this is really truly what I think in the sense that matters, and I don’t really deep down think that I secretly endorse one of the race-specific policies To be anti-woke for a sec, I think ending disparate impact enforcement is good and this is one of the only good policy moves/changes by the Trump administration. You actually do want to just do good, impartial, ethical policy on its own terms and if that leads to correlations with race then so be it

Oof, maybe this is ill-advised but the response seems earnest so I’m gonna respond to it (my response below)

@evavivalt Is this just diminishing marginal returns to income?

Cash transfers continue to have different effects on labor supply in LMICs vs. high-income countries:

@NathanpmYoung It's a bit like saying "increasing life expectancy reduce child mortality more than vaccines". If you want to compare better to pick a lever rather than an outcome. Macroeconomic policy research? Campaigning for better economic policy?

@NathanpmYoung What do you mean by economic growth and poverty? If economic growth is "increase in aggregate incomes" and poverty is being below a certain income threshold then economic growth *is* poverty reduction for countries close to the threshold, and irrelevant to poverty otherwise

Economic growth has brought more people out of poverty than all charity combined.

@s8mb @Aria_Babu I’ve invented a better solution. Tea + caffeine tablet. I call it “supertea” I like good espresso, but I think tea tastes better than other coffee. Its also even cheaper and more convenient

@Aria_Babu I wish there was a 'museum of food' where you could try all these old attempts.

Instant coffee started out as a baked paste of ground coffee, butter and tallow. Unfortunately, the fats went rancid. People have wanted instant coffee for centuries. During the American Civil War, transporting the 12.5 tons of coffee that made up 100,000 soldiers' daily ration was a logistical nightmare. And they still needed to roast, grind, and brew it in the field. Most attempts have had serious drawbacks: - Boiling coffee down to concentrate destroys the flavour. - Dry hot-air dehydration, which is what's used for drying pasta, oxidizes the coffee. - Spray drying, used for dried milk, loses important compounds because molecules in coffee become sticky and clump together at different temperatures. - Freeze drying and flash freezing are expensive and cost several dollars per cup. But we cracked coffee in the end, and it's getting better. New at Works in Progress by @OscarSykes7 and Benjamin Stubbing, the story of how instant coffee became drinkable. worksinprogress.co/issue/a-brief-…

@JustinSandefur Good point. Isn’t the actual disagreement that the more orthodox view is that IMF/WB reforms in the 90s largely addressed these issues, while the Hicklers think that the issues are more fundamental?

20 years before Hickel discourse, right-leaning economists were surprisingly open to the idea that IMF programs in the '80s and '90s had undermined global development. Here's Bob Barro and Jong-Wha Lee (JME 2005)

@Michael_J_Hil It's so odd to me that someone would write this tweet and not do a BOTEC to figure out how much it would raise. The numbers have to add up!

When was the last time someone in politics made an argument that taxes on anyone outside the richest 1% should increase. Lib Dems in 2005?

@NathanpmYoung Also is the question “does African history colonialism have a negative impact on modern day growth?” Or “is it responsible for most of the difference in modern growth btwn SSA and Asia” or “is it responsible for most of the income difference”?

@NathanpmYoung All of this pretty disputed ofc. But the strong-man position typically isn’t “colonialism is always bad for growth”. Not just Asia, also the Americas!

I don't think colonialism explains why Africa has such low growth. Asia had colonialism too.

@AaronBergman18 Additional point: status or positional goods are zero or negative sum. As consumption rises, it's not just that the marginal value falls. A higher % is spent on positional goods. Your billionth dollar is negative-sum even before taking into account resource use.

Why I think spending a billion dollars on oneself (over a normal human lifetime) is bad and should be socially condemned

Freedom of movement is one of the best immigration policies ever. Complete, no-borders free movement. Almost complete access to labour markets and benefits. Integrating countries with incomes as different as the US and Mexico today, with huge benefits and relatively few issues.

@Aria_Babu @NathanpmYoung The boob thing was also strongly against my priors so I clicked through to the blog you cite. It's evidence comes from sex doll sales and anime. I'm not sure those are representative of most men. I feel like there must be better data out there

@NathanpmYoung I think they don't know how common boob jobs nor what they look like. The better comparison would be pictures of the same woman, but one flat chested and one with large breasts and ask which would they rather marry knowing the one with large breasts had had a boob job.

Most women underrate how much men care about looks. And when they do try to get more attractive they waste time and effort on tanning, contouring their face, getting their nails done. Instead, almost everyone could be considered attractive if they lost weight, grew their hair long, and cleared up their skin. All these things are within your control. There's other basic advice that should be obvious. Wear makeup everyday and go for a youthful, dewy look. Remove your body hair. Ditch your glasses. For the extreme looksmaxxers, focus on your body. Your face is probably fine and hard to change. Get a boob job, precisely control your weight, and do hourglass-enhancing exercises. You are no longer stuck with the looks God gave you. ariababu.co.uk/p/get-sexier

@s8mb @PMArslanagic Ah if this is just to stop people forgetting / procrastinating rather than because they’re serious anti-vaxxers that may be right

@AW_Baker @PMArslanagic Neither Phoebe nor I think families need to be reliant on these benefits for the incentive to work.

Parents in the UK who choose not to vaccinate their children should not be eligible for benefits. That includes no Child Benefit and no free childcare. All children need to be vaccinated against killer diseases like Meningitis B and measles.

@s8mb @PMArslanagic Maybe chuck in no free childcare and no tax relief on pension contributions?

@s8mb @PMArslanagic I said relying on not receiving!

@PMArslanagic @s8mb How strongly are non-vaccinated kids concentrated in families relying on benefits. You might want to pick a lever(s) that affects a larger share of people unless it’s v concentrated

@s8mb Yes. And I strongly expect it’s not that hard to incentivise more parents to take these vaccines up once not doing so is made inconvenient.

@sam_atis What’s it from?

It's pretty funny that these fake North Korean workers are apparently sometimes doing a better job than actual employees. The scam here is basically doing competent work and receiving payment in exchange (plus some ID fraud, of course).

@notanastronomer @JustinSandefur a 17 hour layover in Shenzhen sounds fun tho

@JustinSandefur I am resolutely ignoring these really quite decent flights in favor of a... 17 hour layover in Shenzhen.

i need to get from Delhi to Rabat and back to Beijing in the next couple weeks and... there are some *cheap* tickets through the gulf

I always think these claims are odd, because they either imply: A) We don’t need any climate targets, standard economic analysis aiming to lower prices would have the same outcome. B) The best way to lower prices is to peruse a totally orthogonal objective.