albert
1.2K posts

albert
@Albert0Crypto
CEO of this profile exploring @polymarket member @zscdao
เข้าร่วม Mart 2022
82 กำลังติดตาม307 ผู้ติดตาม

@Albert0Crypto @PolymarketTrade @Polymarket next few days will decide everything, I think it’s time to take a good profit already
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@parlettodotbet in crypto even flash crash can be opportunity to make some $$
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@Albert0Crypto better to be careful in such situations
congrats to those who could predict that
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Flash crash this Friday?
today's insane 3K BTC squeeze in literally 1 minute was pure manipulation
risk/reward looks good himos to load up massive shortshere
even after Iran called Trump's statement fake price didn't react
Trump's 5-day ceasefire clock runs out Friday, right at US market close
current Polymarket "What price will Bitcoin hit in March?" odds:
- 65k: 26%
- 60k: 7%
risk/reward looks good here imo

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@Albert0Crypto Friday's gonna be interesting if that ceasefire ends
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STOP BUYING SHARES AT 90% ON POLYMARKET
Most people see 90% and think: “Only 10% downside risk”
Wrong.
Here’s why buying at 90% is usually a bad idea - explained with math.
Break-Even Win Rate
Every price you pay has its own minimum Win Rate you need just to break even.
Break-even WR = Entry Price / Payout = Entry Price / 100¢
At 90¢ you need to be right 90% of the time just to not lose money long-term.
Even if the market is pricing 90% probability - that doesn't mean you have a 90% edge.
Buying at 90¢ isn't “low risk.”
It's high conviction or die.
Most people overestimate their WR by 10-20%.
At 90¢ that gap turns small mistakes into big rekts.
Better zones: 55-72¢ where your real edge actually compounds.
Hope this saves someone today from losing money.

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You can win 10 times in a row and still be a loser
Most see: “65% win rate = printing money”
But in reality it’s:
EV = (WR × Avg Win) - ((1 - WR) × Avg Loss)
That's the only metric that decides if you win long-term on Polymarket
Real YES share example (65% WR):
Entry 62¢
Win = 100¢ - Profit = +38¢
Loss = 0¢ - Loss = -62¢
EV = (0.65 × 38) - (0.35 × 62) = 24.7 - 21.7 = +3¢ per share
But most of smart traders use exit ladder
If average exit ~94¢ - real profit drops to +32¢
EV = (0.65 × 32) - (0.35 × 62) = 20.8 - 21.7 = -0.9¢
Now you’re losing money long term
Fix? Disciplined -25% stop-loss
Average loss becomes ~15.5¢ instead of 62¢
EV = (0.65 × 32) - (0.35 × 15.5) = 20.8 - 5.43 = +15.4¢
Now you’re making money long term
You’re not trying to be right 90% of the time
You’re trying to make sure every trade has +EV
And then survive long enough for math to work

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I got invited to an OpenClaw Mastermind today.
I drove through one little dirt path, crossed an asphalt road for 10 meters. drove through another little dirt path.
I opened the door of a beautiful villa:
- An health influencer with 4.1M followers.
- A few other huge ones.
- A guy who raised $30M with Y Combinator
- A few SaaS Founders
We talked about OpenClaw for a few hours.
This is what I love about living in Bali:
a big city vibe in a village.


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@agentcardai now buying shares at beast price can be easier than ever
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Your AI agent can now trade on Polymarket using AgentCard.
May the best agent win 🤖
AgentCard@agentcardai
Introducing AgentCard. Your agent can now buy anything: • pay for inference & APIs • order DoorDash, Amazon, Ubers • run marketing • trade Polymarket 24/7 Open to all, not just businesses 🔥 Instant. Private. Reusable. Live today.
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