Arman Grigoryan

It is no coincidence that this culture has the copyright on the concept of chutzpah.

Donald Crassus.

I have been assigning your book (co-authored with Helen Pluckrose) in some of my courses over the past few years. I will not do it anymore, but not because I disagree with you, but because for the last couple of years you make the impression of a mentally handicapped person. You have lost your goddamned mind. If a student tells me that what’s in the book has no credibility given the garbage you write on X, I will have no answer.

Gotta say, watching the world turn against Israel for absolutely ridiculous Father-of-Lies reasons is pretty amazing to watch unfold.

Trump's Iran Downfall

This is a vivid demonstrates that some cherished ideas must be abandoned. I am talking about universal franchise, freedom of religion, freedom of assembly, and the first amendment. We should also start a conversation about the wisdom of making selective sterilization a tabu.

If the NY Times allows this much on its front page, one can only imagine how deep the kimchi is the US and Israel are in.

If I was @TulsiGabbard, I would write a similar letter and resign.

It NOT incompetence. It is catastrophic institutional decay and unimaginable levels of corruption of the American political system. That is the explanation for the mess this country has gotten itself into. Incompetence is endogenous to that corruption.

Air power alone is hardening the regime and escalation favors Iran, as my new Foreign Affairs article explains foreignaffairs.com/iran/why-escal…

Très intéressant ! L'ancien chef d'état-major des armées américaines, le général Mark Alexander Milley, aujourd'hui à la retraite, et qui avait fait l'erreur de sous-estimer l'armée russe, a présenté son analyse. Toutes les bases et installations côtières américaines ont été détruites, et nous dépendons désormais des ports indiens pour notre approvisionnement et notre logistique. Les Iraniens, contrairement à nos attentes, ont fait un excellent travail, et nous sommes dans une situation délicate. L'Iran a remporté de grands succès en frappant des cibles américaines et israéliennes. La Russie et la Chine suivent de près la guerre et fournissent des informations à Téhéran. Les bases de missiles souterraines que l'Iran a construites dans toutes ses provinces n'ont pas été endommagées, et le pays dispose d'un stock inépuisable de missiles. Dans cette guerre, notre faiblesse réside dans l'approvisionnement et la logistique, contrairement à l'Iran, puissance continentale de 93 millions d'habitants et dont le territoire équivaut à celui de toute l'Europe occidentale. Son analyse rejoint celle du journaliste israélien 🇮🇱 Alon Mizrahi !

Kurds should catch up on their recent history before deciding how to respond to Trump's encouragement to rebel. In particular, they should read up on what happened when Bush Sr. encouraged them to rise up against Saddam Hussein in 1991, then abandoned them. They should remember what Saddam did to them in 1988 when they cooperated with none other than Iran during the Iran-Iraq war.

It is not different in kind, but in the magnitude of the problem. Past support for Kurds has also negatively affected those relationships. In fact, that is the main source of tensions between Israel and Turkey as far as I understand. They also have common interests, which has prevented a more serious conflict, but this might put things over the edge.

@Arm__Grig I understand, but why would it be different now than when they supported the same in Iraq and Syria?

They must know in Washington and Tel Aviv that nudging Iranian Kurds toward a rebellion will seriously test Turkey's alliance with the US and make Turkey's hitherto suspect hostility toward Israel real. It will push Turkey toward actively supporting Iran. One has to wonder then, why are they willing to run that risk?

@ProfessorPape It is also likely to push the tensions between Turkey and Israel into open hostility, create a very serious rift between Turkey and the US, and push Turkey to lend support to Iran.

US arm the Kurds to topple regime in Iran? More likely to unify the Kurds than march on Tehran and widen the war to Turkey, Syria and Iraq — destabilizing vast parts if the Middle East.

This morning I was asked on Boston radio about the US–Israel strikes on Iran. Here is the strategic reality most people are missing: Airpower alone has never produced positive regime change. I don’t mean rarely. I mean NEVER.

Three historical lessons about bombing campaigns and regime change:

We live in a new world starting today. This is more consequential for reordering international politics than the collapse of the Soviet Union.