Brandon Weber

@DerivativesDon One of my favorites, partially for my association of them either the Masters and warmer weather

Nothing says Masters time more than the azaleas in full bloom.

Bond traders are the least bearish in 10 years ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report: BMO survey. Just 24% of respondents saw the next 15 bp move in 10-year yields as being higher, the lowest since Nov. 2010. Most see the oil-price surge as being a hit to growth more than inflationary.

👍📺Highly recommend Jimmy's new & very insightful interview with world's largest #Uranium producer Kazatomprom $KAP 🇰🇿⚛️⛏️👥as Dastan talks about the "turning point" he's seeing in the mindset of #Nuclear fuel buyers this year, as #U3O8 prices continue heading higher.📈 Here's an excerpt: Jimmy: "Given everything that's going on in the world especially in the Middle East now is there a sense of urgency among fuel buyers? And I want to get a sense if there's a difference between fuel buyers in the east versus fuel buyers in the west." Dastan: "Yeah, that's an excellent question and spot on because there's always been like not always but for the past couple of years at least there's been a huge difference in terms of uh behavioural patterns from the fuel amongst the fuel buyers whilst the eastern fuel buyers think in terms of not even I say decades but maybe even centuries, and of course I'm exaggerating a bit but uh they look forward like and purchase and procure and try to get everything they get get they can get their hands on. Whereas uh western utilities they have always shown this elevated interest but sometimes it's just failed to be backed up by a concrete set of actions and measures. But this year should be a turning point because we're witnessing a lot of positive signals in the market and I think that a lot of fuel buyers are coming to terms with the new reality and essentially starting to grasp it." Jimmy: "And given everything that's going on in the Middle East, uh are you getting a lot more phone calls, like is there a sense of maybe panic going on with some Western fuel buyers?" Dastan: "I need to check with the with the commercial team, but just let me check the internal system here. Yeah, eight people are still here and it's 700 p.m. here in Astana. It's been almost an hour since the end of the business hours. So I assume these guys are on their phone calls with some because their only job is to talk to our clients. So it's a fair observation." Jimmy: "So the strategy of some fuel buyers just hoping that the price is going to drop, they're waking up to the new reality now that it's not going to drop?" Dastan: "No, God willing. And yes, as I said, we're seeing these things happening and uh I've received a lot of feedback from uh our Bethesda office because we have this office in Bethesda DC and uh they they're receiving a lot of and usually they're receiving a lot of engagements from the state bodies in the US whereas now the US administration essentially is being concerned with the security of supply. This should serve, if it doesn't serve now, it should serve as a wake-up call for everyone who's not taking this matter seriously."🤠🐂

@HayekAndKeynes New KPI for government officials: stock indices

Dow is down and Bondi is out

@HayekAndKeynes It’s always easier to bash the one in charge.

For the life of me I do not understand the people who want to define victory as an unwinnable ground war yet keep calling Trump the moron. He ended Afghanistan, he’s not going to kick off a similar operation next door. The dude literally erased the leadership (twice), the military, and the US has come out completely unscathed. They have already killed all the staff involved with the nuclear program. Iran’s only response has been to take hostage global oil flows and bomb innocent third parties - even then Trump has not taken the bait. He did as much as he could without causing WWIII and is now leaving without a scratch. If that is not victory, I do not know what is.

Crazy how vulnerable the US is.

@Brad_Setser Thanks. I partially remember reading Obstfeld (2012), Bordo & McCauley (2016) and Hardie & Maxfield (2016) that discussed fin assets and valuation changes as a bigger driver of the NIIP. Could be wrong. Also if focus is on trade flows than it’s less important.

i do need to update this cfr.org/articles/us-in… but cumulative current account flows actually tend to drive the NIIP over time; the US net debt position is the sum of current account deficits since 2000 more or less. the equity bit of the NIIP is badly valued and moves with global equity prices, I don't find it that interesting TBH but the data is there

Happy to welcome the Bank of England to the growing club of "imbalancistas" Would just note that if they used the 2025 data rather than the 2024, the return of imbalances would be even more apparent. Asia's surplus went up by $600b ...

Global imbalances were meant to be behind us. They are not. This Bank of England Substack summarises new evidence—and why it matters—based on recent work with brilliant colleagues at the Bank: bankofengland.co.uk/bank-insights/…

And we haven’t even started the fiscal stimulus phase yet.

Trump pumps up and running Less than 5 hours from this post.

@TMTLongShort Bye Patagonia vests and button ups Hello @rhoback and crocs

Hedge funds get your shit together. First movers will have their pick of talent and late movers will get taxed to death as NY’s budget hole worsens. It’s a cheap hedge.

@tleilax___ Deep alpha is her stripper name?

Deep alpha

@conksresearch @DeepDishEnjoyer Yeah the comments are saturated now savvy trading comeback lines.. shit missed my shot

.@DeepDishEnjoyer stole my line, so I had to improvize

anyone got his discord link?

@agnostoxxx Invesco is going to make a smart beta ETF off this soon

First, Iran competed with me in Memes. Now they are stealing my trading strategy. IS NOTHING SACRED ANYMORE?!😭

@mb_ghalibaf Would you like to be a guest on my podcast and talk about trading strategies?

Heads-up: Pre-market so-called “news” or “Truth” is often just a setup for profit-taking. Basically, it’s a reverse indicator. Do the opposite: If they pump it, short it. If they dump it, go long. See something tomorrow? You know the drill.

@TMTLongShort Often travel to NYC for work and it’s insane how little my colleagues get and how miserable their commute is. Unfortunately for us looking for new opportunities, most are still in NYC it appears.

@DerivativesDon @BlacklionCTA Thanks! So simply put, buyer needs term funding for 30Y which comes at a premium? What if most buyers fund o/n?

It’s absolutely Treasury funding. ALM manager promise a cash return on a risky index with a guaranteed floor to their customer. The only way to guarantee the return is by defeasing the rate risk. ALM manger doesn’t require the cash upfront from the customer Without that demand for duration, Treasury could not fund a 30yr Treasury without that demand for duration. But now they need to pay someone to pony up the cash for 30 years . That is the term funding cost for leverage (swap spread). Intermediation implies no risk taking other than CP risk. There is real funding risk being taken by whoever provides the cash (at a price - the swap spread). Swap rate = duration price Treasury rate = duration price + term funding cost

Weekend Macro Thread. The big theme is the rates market adjust from the absurd fantasy that the Fed will raise rates into this energy shock to the medium/long-term reality this Iran adventure will have on growth. Beginning with breakevens moderating.

@BlacklionCTA @DerivativesDon Treasury intermediation costs may be better term. Idk if funding stress is the best way to put it considering how repo has traded (maybe in CP, FHLB advances?). Also, esp with shift in policy expectations, how much receiving demand from LDI community is impacting narrowing?

So, where is the stress showing up in Treasury/funding markets - Swap Spreads @DerivativesDon especially on the long end.

@DerivativesDon Did our annual ice fishing trip in Canada a month back and caught over 200 jumbo perch. Can’t wait to retire

I go fishing for two days and this is wha you all do with the market? Well, fishing was good.