Yet another commodity guy

11.8K posts

Yet another commodity guy

Yet another commodity guy

@tleilax___

Commodity Portfolio Manager - Systematic mid-frequency futures & options - Switzerland - Options - Quantitative trading - Data driven

Genève Katılım Şubat 2012
2.7K Takip Edilen42K Takipçiler
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Yet another commodity guy
Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___·
Hey guys, just a quick message to say hello to all my followers👋 Dangerous time we live in, so expect me to post color on the commodity markets I trade, geopolitics and military/spy stuff. I'm politically leaning left so expect a small modicum of rambling about that too. I've also made a part fictional miniseries with my trading lore, if you want to discover more about the world of commodity trading. I have nothing to sell. This is for your enjoyment ;) x.com/tleilax___/sta… x.com/tleilax___/sta… x.com/tleilax___/sta… x.com/tleilax___/sta… x.com/tleilax___/sta… x.com/tleilax___/sta… x.com/tleilax___/sta… x.com/tleilax___/sta… x.com/tleilax___/sta… x.com/tleilax___/sta… x.com/tleilax___/sta… x.com/tleilax___/sta… x.com/tleilax___/sta… x.com/tleilax___/sta…
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Israel-Alma
Israel-Alma@Israel_Alma_org·
As part of ongoing efforts to secure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, US Forces have been heavily striking IRGC bases on Qeshm Island. On March 17, Sentinel-2 imagery @CopernicusEU revealed that 2 bunkers storing UAVs and missiles at the UAV airfield were completely destroyed, along with 3 buildings in the IRGC naval base located north of the airfield. In addition, imagery on March 13 reveals that at least 6 buildings were also destroyed at the UAV airfield, where mobile ground control stations, Mohajer-6 UAVs, and Shahed 171 UAVs are known to be stored from past imagery. Also revealed are at least 8 buildings destroyed at the naval base. This makes a total of 19 buildings destroyed at these two collocated IRGC sites since the start of major combat operations.
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War Monitor
War Monitor@WarMonitors·
Now that everyone calmed down can we actually begin to ask how tf Iran was able to even lock on to F-35 in the first place, let alone hit it without flare dumping. Crazy.
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Yet another commodity guy
Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___·
@Supertanker2020 That is pretty much what the news I'm retweeting said. Maybe the news misrepresented what Qatar said then ? Potential FM on long term contract with selected countries BECAUSE of yesterday's Iranian strikes
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SuperTanker
SuperTanker@Supertanker2020·
@tleilax___ They did not serve FM after the new hit, where did you see that they did. They said they will. At this time they don’t have the capacity - new projects delayed and something like 15% of current capacity knocked out. Declare FM, protect yourself then sort out the mess
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Yet another commodity guy
Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___·
Obviously selectively defaulting / declaring force majeur only on the cheap contracts is not gonna fly in court. Pari passu usually means you have to reduce ALL outstanding commercial contracts by 17% if your claimed force majeure'd disability is 17% of your production. This is assuming the sales were FOB Ras Laffan. If the sales were CnF Japan for example, this would be even more fragile.
Jack Prandelli@jackprandelli

🚨BREAKING: Qatar just declared force majeure on LNG contracts to Italy, Belgium, South Korea, and China. For up to 5 years. Here's what the CEO just told In an exclusive interview with Reuters, Qatar's Energy Minister and CEO of QatarEnergy just confirmed the damage from Iran's attack on Ras Laffan. It's worse than anyone thought. → 2 out of 14 LNG trains damaged → 1 of 2 gas-to-liquids (GTL) facilities damaged → 12.8 million tonnes per year of LNG offline for 3-5 years → 17% of Qatar's total LNG export capacity gone → $20 billion annual revenue loss → $26 billion in damaged facilities (the CEO said they "should not be attacked") QatarEnergy may declare force majeure on long term LNG supply contracts to: → Italy → Belgium → South Korea → China For up to 5 years. Additional exports declining: → Condensates: Down 24% → LPG: Down 13% → Naphtha: Down 6% → Sulphur: Down 6% → Helium: Down 14% The damaged trains: → Train S4 and S6: 30% owned by ExxonMobil, rest by QatarEnergy Production cannot restart until hostilities cease. What this means? 12.8 million tonnes per year = 17% of Qatar's LNG capacity. 17% of its capacity just disappeared for 3-5 years. Italy, Belgium, South Korea, China: These countries had long-term contracts with Qatar. Force majeure means those contracts are suspended. They now have to compete in spot markets for replacement cargoes. Against each other. And against every other buyer scrambling for LNG. $20 billion per year in lost revenue for Qatar. $26 billion in facilities damaged. The only country with capacity to absorb Qatari volumes at scale is the United States. I wrote a full breakdown on how this shift benefits US LNG producers and which stocks are positioned to win from Qatar's structural supply loss👇 open.substack.com/pub/themerchan… #Iran #Qatar #LNG

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Fear
Fear@Aion19834333·
@tleilax___ Iran doesn’t want a ceasefire. Iran won’t let go of the strait. The US won’t stop attacking until they do. Therefore, there is an indefinite impasse.
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Yet another commodity guy
Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___·
Point 1 and 3 are in play at the moment. Expect Trump and Netanyahu to hint every few hours at the imminent end of hostilities. Expect the Iranians to pushback any ceasefire and keep shooting at stuff.
Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___

At this point the only four bearish factors I can see : 1/ Shipowners/China heavily bribes the IRGC folks along the strait and get safe passage in exchange 2/ Ukrainian-designed drones allow to control the Shahed threat enough to make some nighly scud-runs across the strait possible. 3/ A big, fat, greasy TACO. 4/ The mother of all SPR releases, products if possible. Pretty much everything else is bullish.

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Yet another commodity guy
Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___·
@Breadan1A FM is a right, not an obligation. They could use other LNG to perform the contract. It means they deemed it to be unprofitable.
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Brendan
Brendan@Breadan1A·
@tleilax___ Believe at least some contracts were tied to individual trains
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Yet another commodity guy
Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___·
@VGDeepDive FM is a right, not an obligation. They could use other LNG to perform the contract. It means they deemed it to be unprofitable.
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Yet another commodity guy
Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___·
@Supertanker2020 Force majeure is a right not an obligation. If those long term contracts were great they could have waited before serving FM notice or delivered using spot cargoes or other capacity they have.
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SuperTanker
SuperTanker@Supertanker2020·
@tleilax___ What makes you think these are cheap contracts ? Has it occurred to you usually LNG spas are tied to a specific train or venture .. for the exact reasons of FM.. I ask can’t imagines sales to Korea or China to be cheap
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Just Another Pod Guy
Just Another Pod Guy@TMTLongShort·
Schizo idea of the day. If I was attempting decoupling and wanted the Chinese to remain placid and patient I would subtly manipulate betting markets to push the narrative that i would be a lame duck after midterms. Would cost me less than a single Tomahawk too 😉
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Yet another commodity guy
Yet another commodity guy@tleilax___·
The middle east keeps unsurprisingly building inland crude oil inventory.
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Tuvidex
Tuvidex@tuvidux·
@tleilax___ Any thoughts on Demand Destruction/Recession here?
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Zouhair
Zouhair@Zouhair__m·
Everyone’s talking about Claude and OpenAI. Meanwhile, Mistral just shipped in a single week: → Small 4: 119B param open-source model. Reasoning + multimodal + coding. Apache 2.0. 40% faster. → Forge: announced at Nvidia GTC. Lets enterprises build frontier-grade models on their own data. ESA, Ericsson, ASML already onboard. → Leanstral: code verification agent. Beats Sonnet at 15x less cost ($36 vs $549). Arthur Mensch says they’re tracking $1B ARR this year. Europe’s AI champion doesn’t hype on Twitter. It signs enterprise contracts. Might be the better playbook. W’ll see
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Melissa Chen
Melissa Chen@MsMelChen·
Iconic moments in Trump diplomacy You think he won’t really go there but then he does
Melissa Chen tweet mediaMelissa Chen tweet mediaMelissa Chen tweet mediaMelissa Chen tweet media
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Keşfet

@CopernicusEU @Supertanker2020 @Aion19834333 @Breadan1A @VGDeepDive @TMTLongShort @tuvidux @TheNorthernH