Tongs Ya Bass
46.1K posts

Tongs Ya Bass
@AuldSkin
Switch to Curly Fries for 50p
Glasgow เข้าร่วม Eylül 2013
325 กำลังติดตาม317 ผู้ติดตาม

A lot of people, including some so-called conservatives, act like Trump is the reason things are the way they are, but that is completely backwards. Iran has been a terrorist state since 1979, illegal immigration has been a persistent problem for decades, the media has been corrupt and fraudulent since time immemorial, NATO has been freeloading on U.S. security guarantees since 1949, Europe’s energy problems started long before 2016, Ukraine and Russia have been at war since 2014, Xi has been running the CCP since 2012, and the list goes on. Trump did not create any of this, he just pointed it out, forced everyone to see it, and has been trying to confront it head on.
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@shanaka86 If Iran is stopping ships outbound through the Strait, why is the U.S. Navy not blockading ships inbound?
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JUST IN: Four ships left Chinese ports carrying sodium perchlorate and arrived at Iranian harbours after the war began. Sodium perchlorate is a white crystalline salt. When heated, it decomposes and releases oxygen. Mixed with aluminium powder and a polymer binder, it becomes solid rocket fuel. Solid rocket fuel propels ballistic missiles. Ballistic missiles close the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz sets the global oil price. And China, the country that shipped the chemical, is buying that oil at a discount, paying in yuan, while co-authoring a five-point peace plan to end the war the chemical is helping to sustain.
The Telegraph reported on April 3rd that the vessels Hamouna, Barzin, Shabdis, and Rayen, all sanctioned Iran-flagged ships, loaded cargo at Chinese chemical ports including Gaolan in Zhuhai and delivered it to Iran since the war began. Analysts assessed the shipments could enable production of hundreds of additional ballistic missiles. In early 2025, over a thousand tons of sodium perchlorate were shipped on similar routes. One shipment was linked to an explosion at Bandar Abbas.
Follow the molecule. Sodium perchlorate leaves a Chinese factory in Guangdong Province. It crosses the Indian Ocean on a sanctioned vessel that no Western insurer will touch. It arrives in Iran. It enters a dispersed production facility that the US Air Force has spent five weeks trying to locate and destroy. It is mixed, cast, cured, and loaded into a solid-fuel motor. That motor is fitted to a ballistic missile. That missile is aimed at a tanker, a refinery, a bridge, or a base. The tanker it hits was carrying oil through the strait that the missile was built to close. The oil that does not pass through the strait becomes scarce. The scarcity raises the physical price to $140. And China, whose factory produced the precursor, buys the scarce oil that its own chemical helped make scarce, at prices negotiated bilaterally in a currency that is not the dollar, through a strait it helped close with a chemical it shipped on a vessel it knew was sanctioned.
The circle has tracking numbers, port manifests, vessel IMO codes, and satellite timestamps. No government has denied the cargo. China says it “strictly controls dual-use exports.” The vessels are sanctioned. The chemical is a known propellant precursor. And the shipments arrived during a war in which China blocked the UN resolution to reopen the strait, co-authored a peace plan with Pakistan, supplied the rare earth magnets inside every F-35 sent to bomb the missile facilities, and published the tutorial that taught Iran to shoot down the aircraft carrying those magnets.
Supplier of the missile fuel. Supplier of the jet engine magnets. Teacher of the countermeasure. Blocker of the resolution. Author of the peace plan. Buyer of the oil. China does not have a side in this war. China has a position at every point on the circumference of a circle whose centre is the Strait of Hormuz and whose radius is measured in the distance a sodium perchlorate molecule travels from a factory in Zhuhai to a missile silo in Khuzestan.
The chemical left China. The missile closes the strait. The oil price rises. China buys the oil. The peace plan fails. The war continues. The next shipment loads. The circle turns.
open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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Trump has been demanding their unconditional surrender for 3 weeks now, that’s “the deal”. They had their many chances to “negotiate”, they failed, and they ignored every warning.
Trump:”don’t shoot the protesters or we’ll come to their rescue! We’re locked and loaded!”.
Iran: kills 45k protestors.
Crybabies wonder why Trump attacked two months later.
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@drpezeshkian You bloodthirsty savages slaughtered 50,000 of your own people! You hang teenagers for daring to protest! You rape female political prisoners like beasts!
You are terrorists. Every last one of you is drenched in blood and guilt. You will all pay.
Iran will be free!
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Somebody share this with Joe Rogan. A little education can go a long way.
washingtonexaminer.com/opinion/451342…
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Trump's conflicting statements about the Strait of Hormuz are an example of applied game theory.
The Islamic regime uses the Strait of Hormuz as a point of leverage against the world. Other nations fear confronting the Islamic regime because losing access to the Strait of Hormuz would cause painful consequences.
To remove that leverage, Trump diminishes the perceived importance of the Strait. He makes statements to the effect that the Strait of Hormuz doesn't matter to him. He doesn't need it. He doesn't care what happens to it. He denies the regime their desired leverage.
Trump also needs to manage oil markets, and he's trying to negotiate a peace agreement with the regime.
If market makers believe Trump will eventually take control of the Strait, oil prices will go down. That same threat causes leaders in the regime to want to negotiate a deal since they don't want to lose control of the Strait.
This second angle requires Trump to continually hint that he can easily take control of the Strait if he wants to.
The conflicting statements serve different purposes, and work together to accomplish different objectives.
People may accuse Trump of being delusional, but he's doing what he does best. Setting himself up for success by working both sides of the equation to his advantage.
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