@AdamMancini4 @bryce_schilling In these cases do you apply NAP to 37 or 35? Was interesting to see you applied NAP to the 92 shelf yesterday and not the 82 low
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Jonathan Brunner
219 posts
@bryce_schilling There is a clear shelf there, its best to see 37 clear in that case though since its the higher of them
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Yesterday was about 2 levels: 6593 & 6623 in #ES_F with reclaims triggering long. I posted here & newsletter 4pm that 6623 reclaims trigger up. We got it. Targets were 6638, 6647, 6664 (hit)
Plan today: Ride runner. 6647, 6638 (watch traps)=supports. Next targets=6678, 6690-95
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Very typical #ES_F to wait until the market closes to run, but we are pushing targets. Newsletter just sent out before the pop stated 6623 reclaims trigger long. Targets posted 1hr ago were 6638 (hit), 6647 (hit), 6664 (hit). 6690-95 remains only outstanding target. Ride runner
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@AdamMancini4 Did you consider 77 more of a pullback leg rather than where the move ignited from? Or just because better to be in from lower since 77 would call for 17+pt stop?
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@AdamMancini4 No wrong way and both worked, but when do you decide to enter from lower (69, Yest. 3am Low) v. letting the 75-77 recent shelf clear just above? Does it vary by scenario based on the structures/levels u find hold more weight at the time?
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No shock to anyone where we are now on this OPEX day in #ES_F, back to 6993. Protect gains. After running to 7002 target this morning, we went elevator down to 6961. I gave two entries: The 6969 reclaim, or the 6977 reclaim. ~6993 target, here now
7002, 7010 above. Same supports
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Its a choppy OPEX session but #ES_F still giving us trades. As posted 8am 6993 reclaim sees 7002. We hit 7002, then dipped. 6977 (magnet), then 6969 were supports. Per newsletter 6969 flush & recover was long, and back to 6977 now. 6993, 7002 above. Bulls want to hold 6969 now
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@AdamMancini4 @Stockgod202377 Do you find the big Macro lows like this often take a few FBD attempts before resolving? Especially when it’s a deep flush?
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@Stockgod202377 I've talked about it in newsletter but this was not a routine Failed Breakdown where ES flushes the prior days low, or flushes a multi-hour low from earlier in the session. This was a Failed Breakdown of a 3 week old low that started the big late October leg higher
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On Friday #ES_F got the most powerful variant of my core setup: The macro Failed Breakdown. We flushed the Oct 22nd low, trapped, longs triggered. Targets given were 6766, 6798, 6815. Little to do unfortunately now but hold runner
Flagging. 6824, 6834, 6841, 6851 next. Dip<6807
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We are now +130 points from Friday's 6690 Failed Breakdown long, posted live 1:10PM Fri + newsletter. Target given was 6766, 6798 hit 98 last eve. 6pm last night I gave next batch: 6806 (hit), 6815 (hit), 6851 Plan: Ride your runner. 6824, 6834, 6841, 6851 next. 6807=1st support
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@AdamMancini4 @AnotherX2802 @poker848768148 When playing at/around the reclaim level after completing acceptance, are you typically instantly entering at/just above the level or still waiting ~1min or so,making sure it wants to be above? Thought acceptance complete by 11:52am, but was out in front a bit. 12:44 much cleaner
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@AnotherX2802 @poker848768148 I took it - its an A+ failed breakdown that meets all the criteria. We had nice acceptance and its played out 2x to 6756 1st up. And its still active
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Its been one way traffic since the open today as #ES_F continues to sell from yesterday's 6852 backtest of the Monday breakdown. 6798-6802 was next big backtest this morning and flushed since.
No change: 6748-51 must recover to see 6766+. Bears fully control<6798-6802 minimum
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Sell bounces continues in #ES_F as posted, bears control until we get some structural reclaims. 6852 back-test started it yesterday. 6798-6802 was huge resistance this morning, and we back-tested, flushed. Bulls must recover 6748-51 now to pop to 6766+ again. 6728 next down
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@AdamMancini4 @50 Momentum looked good to get to 62, but mismanaged by not reacting in the 2mins I had to trim some to limit my loss, now tapped out 2 L’s for the day. The next setup always works, but I’m always in DD and then stuck watching, can’t seem to not get out in front too early.
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@AdamMancini4 Always losing on these days where we only bounce a level and fail. Took 11:53 entry @51, after acceptance since 11:37, trapped. Took 12:06 entry @50 again after dip to 6736(further acceptance). Hit 56 1st up, was looking for ~60 since 15pt stop, didnt react fast enough to take +6
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Sell bounces continues in #ES_F as posted, bears control until we get some structural reclaims. 6852 back-test started it yesterday. 6798-6802 was huge resistance this morning, and we back-tested, flushed.
Bulls must recover 6748-51 now to pop to 6766+ again. 6728 next down
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Yesterdays target was 6851 to backtest Monday breakdown. We hit it & bounces sold since. 6798-6802 was huge resistance as posted, hit, sold again. Bears control until major res reclaims (6798-6802) Chop now 66-57. Bulls must reclaim 6772 to try a bounce. 51, 45, 28 below
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@AdamMancini4 @samcoleman069 @BoydSpecter And we just need to see that push through with momo as we wouldnt have returned to 93 if there was sufficient supply?
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@AdamMancini4 @samcoleman069 @BoydSpecter So when we have acceptance prior, then flush out those lows to 73, return 93, you can long above ~94, even when it ends up in (deep) territory on the flush and we have ~20pts green behind? Is it ideal to see further acceptance after the 2nd return to 93 or not necessary?
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Today's target slate for yesterday's 6869 Failed Breakdown was 6907 (hit), 6916 (hit), 6928+. We got to 6916 then after that 50 point squeeze, began the 1st dip. I posted bulls had to recover 6893 to see a pop (6893 is a clear overnight shelf).
Protect gains. 6907, 6916+ above
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
After a 50 point squeeze off yesterday's 6869 4pm Failed Breakdown, #ES_F in a retracement leg now. Levels respecting well. Bulls had to recover 6893 to rally again as posted. We back-tested it, rejected. Must clear later to run the targets again. 6881, 6872-69 (key), 6857 below
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@AdamMancini4 @jpmanx03 So just have to buy at 2:43pm ~56 and hope that the push through 55 isnt going to be a trap? And it’s likely not to be since we completed acceptance by 2:39pm?
Waited for it patiently but the 22pt 5min spike threw me off and felt too late by the time ripped to 60’s
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@jpmanx03 That was definitely an A+ failed breakdown. Choppy session but saw great follow through and structurally perfect
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As I've posted #ES_F never sells in straight lines - it is always interspersed with sharp squeezes (true even in strongest downtrends). Good follow through today. 6655 had to reclaim to squeeze as posted. +15. *Protect gains*
6695/6702 must clear for bulls to be out of the woods
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
That was quick and there is 6642 1st down. Its been very precise day trading day and conditions remain excellent in #ES_F. 6655-59=core uptrend line. We held it, ran to 6695/6705 target. Returned to 6655-59, flushed. 6655 must reclaim to squeeze. 6633, 6623 below if we dip more
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@AdamMancini4 @comptofreedom @CorlukaDejan Is 6653 stronger now that we’re selling into it from 50pts higher, or is it still likely to cave since it’s been bounced so much already? Does it differ when bears control?
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@comptofreedom @CorlukaDejan Yes that would meet the criteria. Because bulls have bounced off that zone so much already though not sure if it would spring back up again upon failure but no need to guess.
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After 3 red days, #ES_F saw a big Failed Breakdown ystd 2pm: We swept a big low at 6631, trapped. Targets given were 6660 (hit), 6673 (hit exact overnight), 6683 (not yet)
Plan today: This is the shot for bulls. 6661, 6650-53=supports. 73, 80-83, 99 remain targets. Dip<50 to 35
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
6660 target hit for the 2nd time today in #ES_F. Volatility makes our job easy. More setups, more through. 6631 was support given this morning. We held it. Targets were 6660 (hit), 6673 (hit), 6680-83 (not yet) We then swept 31, perfect Failed Breakdown, back up. 73, 80+ above.
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@AdamMancini4 Hard to reenter after a loss thinking may repeat the same error again & even more frustrating, have to get a decent sized move to even make the previous L up. Tough when always playing catch-up
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@AdamMancini4 Frustrating to continually get trapped within 1-2pts of the high on what looks like acceptance and a reclaim, then stopping at the lows just for the next play to work ~100% of the time. Just cannot seem to take the right plays at right time, without missing it or buying the top.
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We just arrived ~6454 support in #ES_F. After running to 6523 bonus target to the tick yesterday, we are getting needed cool-off to setup the next leg. I posted 6488 fail sees 6472, 6454 and we saw 6455.
Watch for Nvidia Low FBD. 6472 above, then 6484, 6488+. 6439, 6429 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Yesterday was a trend day up in #ES_F: At 10:26AM, I posted 6488 triggered long. My target was 6515 (Hit). 6523 was bonus target. We hit 6523 *to the tick* & sold Plan today: Protect those gains. 6488=support(held). 6501 must reclaim to see 6507, 6511+. 88 fails, dip 72, 55
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@AdamMancini4 Ever any hesitance to step aside for a bit and let the dust settle when unprecedented headlines like this pop up? Or still always fully ignore and only waiting for the technical setup?
TRUMP REMOVES FED’S COOK, EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY, AND SENDS LETTER TO POWELL — TRUTH SOCIAL.
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Closing Update #ES_F: "Hangover Monday" and these low volatility days are normal after a squeeze like Friday. Lvls respecting well. 6461 support as posted at 7am, with 6474, 6480, 6484 upsides. We held 61 exact & got to 6482 high. Flagging.Newsletter out soon talking next entries
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0 volatility but lvls respecting perfectly. As warned, after a rally like Friday #ES_F needs to "work it off" & base. This can take all day. Don't overtrade* 6461 support as posted. Held exact 830am & popped to 6474, then 6480 1st target. 6484, 6494+ next.
Sell<6461 to 55, 34
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Friday's monster #ES_F squeeze was driven by a 3am Friday Failed Breakdown of Thursdays low, which activated upside targets of 6461, 6494 as posted. Now, we work it off Plan Today: 6461, 6455=supports. 6474 must reclaim to see 6480, 6484, 6494. Take profits *fast* today. Dip<55
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@TimothyBon194 @wolveran1 @AdamMancini4 Exactly, although had acceptance at 10:22am, hard when feels like chasing with 25+pts of green behind you. The 11am 69 reclaim or 12:10 2nd form of acceptance there makes much more sense to me. But its probably the context of we just sold ES standard ~70pt sell in 1,1/2 hours.
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@wolveran1 @AdamMancini4 Great question. Aggressive (69-74) vs conservative entry (87) perhaps?? Which (if true) goes against my thinking in realtime because by the time were back to 87 I'm thinking this seems more risky now given the ~24pt lift from the low to 87 reclaim.
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There's 6420 hit in #ES_F. Today was very typical. We got the usual "elevator down" sell to provoke panic. 100% of the time, this leads to a short squeeze. 6387 reclaim was long trigger given 10:20AM. Targets given were 6405-10 (hit, spent hours), 6420 (hit), 6429, 6436-39 next
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We continue to play the levels perfectly as we digest this mornings sell. 6387 reclaim targets 6405-10 as posted at 10:20AM. We hit 6405-10 exact, then spent 2 hours there. 30mins ago, we did a quick re-test of 6387, now back at 6405-10. Chewing through supply 6420, 6429 above
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@AdamMancini4 Knew this was likely going to rip through 87 after, so wouldve been nice to be in runners by then
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@AdamMancini4 Hesitated and ultimately skipped the 11:05am 6370 reclaim. Put a nice 15pt bounce from 70 at 10:18am, but only defended for ~20mins. Is this quality/confidence upped by the fact we sold 90pts since the open? And in combo with that mini structure within that zone its actionable?
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As we grind down (little to do but wait for triggers) key to remember *why* #ES_F selling. As written yesterday/in newsletter, ES lost 1 week 6460 (17 touches) to 6500 range, giving bears control
Ultimately, bulls need to recover 6460 after Jackson Hole to restore prior trend
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@AdamMancini4 @comptofreedom I’m often stuck holding full positions under BE trapped, and when returns to level or staying just around entry I holding on what feels like hopes of getting back close to that 1st level up
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@AdamMancini4 @comptofreedom If derisk around-at BE (little to no profit) you still find it worthy to hold a small runner though as long as the trades still valid, even if it results in a small L? Better than taking a full position loss and still having exposure in case ends I suppose
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There's 6469 hit in #ES_F and in back to support of the two day flag in true OPEX form as we retrace yesterday's rally and build structure. Quick bounce to 6477 1st up off it. 6488, 6497 above.
6469 fails, next dip sees 6456 to retest yesterdays lows. Flag is 6469 to 6488/97 now
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
Slow OPEX day underway in #ES_F but some mild volatility pick up. Yesterday's 6461 reclaim triggered long to 6503+, and now getting some retrace. 6488 1st support down as posted, we tested, spent 15mins there, headed down. 6477, 6469 remain below. 6488-90 must reclaim to pop
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@AdamMancini4 Was going to add that 4pm edge in there too ran out of space.. Thank you for the clarification as always
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Its my end of day edge - ES has a very strong tendency to bottom around 4pm then rally into the evening, so on any days where we close at the lows, I'll typically long any nearby Failed Breakdown, even if its low quality. Though this wasn't bad (an 11 point bounce), not great quality on its own though
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Today has been all about 6410 in #ES_F & an ATM Machine. We are flagging 6410-6422/29. Its support as posted at 8am. It held 2x. I then posted to watch for the failed breakdown, we got it, rallied to 6422/29. Now, probing below again.
6410 recover works back up. 6404, 6394 below
Adam Mancini@AdamMancini4
We continue to work the flag in #ES_F and today has been clean range trading, to setup next trend leg. As posted 11:10AM, 6410=flag support, and its reclaim would trigger us to 6422+. We reclaimed 6410, ran targets, now back to 6410. 4th test today. Same upsides, same supports
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