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Brian Reinsborough & Chris Sembritzky of West Africa focused oil & gas explorer @Recon_Africa will be on our Discussions program to talk Namibia operations update, thoughts on the market, $RECO work plans during 2026, and more. Questions for Brian & Chris? Email us.

@SmithWeekly @Recon_Africa Awesome! When are they going to be on?

SpaceX just filed for IPO targeting a $2 trillion valuation. This changes everything for $ASTS and here is exactly why. SpaceX is being valued at $2 trillion primarily because of Starlink. Starlink took 5 years, over 10,000 satellites, and tens of billions in capital expenditure to reach 9 million subscribers and roughly $10 billion in annual revenue. 10 million subscribers. $10 billion revenue. $2 trillion implied valuation. The market just told you what space based connectivity is worth at scale. Now look at what $ASTS is building and tell me why it trades at $34 billion. $ASTS is targeting 5 billion mobile subscribers globally. Not 10 million. 5 billion. And the business model is structurally superior to Starlink in every way that matters for scale. Starlink competes with carriers. They built their own hardware, their own dish, their own subscriber acquisition funnel. Every customer has to buy a $600 terminal, cancel their existing provider, and switch to a new service. Customer acquisition is expensive and friction is high. That is why after 5 years and 10,000 satellites they have 9 million subscribers. Their carriers collectively cover 3.2 billion existing subscribers whose phones are already hardware compatible. Starlink charges $120 per month per residential customer. $ASTS operates on a wholesale model where carriers pay per subscriber. A $5 per month add-on to an existing carrier plan is not a stretch. Carriers charge $15 to $30 per month for international roaming today. A dead zone coverage add-on in rural America, at sea, or in the air is a premium feature people will pay for without thinking twice. Now run the math. 1 billion subscribers at $5 per month is $60 billion in annual revenue. That is 20% penetration of the 5 billion subscriber target. That is 33% penetration of the 3.2 billion already on partner carrier networks. Starlink is valued at roughly $1.17 trillion implied on $10 billion in revenue. That is a 117x revenue multiple. $ASTS generating $60 billion at a fraction of that multiple tells you everything you need to know. At 15x revenue on $60 billion that is a $900 billion market cap. At 20x that is $1.2 trillion. At Starlink's implied multiple it is multiples beyond that. Stay conservative. Even at 10x revenue on $60 billion that is a $600 billion market cap from a $34 billion market cap today. That is 17x from here on a scenario that requires 20% penetration of an addressable market where the distribution is already built and the hardware is already in billions of pockets. Here is what each milestone means for the stock price on ~350M fully diluted shares. $100B — $286/share.Needs commercial service live and AT&T and Verizon billing activated. $300B — $857/share. Needs global carrier rollout and 100M+ subscribers. $500B — $1,429/share. Needs 200M+ subscribers across multiple continents. $700B — $2,000/share. Needs $ASTS as a standard carrier add-on globally. $1T — $2,857/share. Needs 1 billion subscribers. BlueBird 6 is already in orbit. The largest commercial communications array ever deployed in LEO exceeding 120 Mbps peak data speeds. Batch launches every 1 to 2 months through year end. Commercial service activating second half of 2026. $3.9 billion in cash fully funding the constellation. Zero dilution risk on the launch campaign. SpaceX needed 10,000 satellites and 5 years to get to 9 million subscribers fighting for every single one. $ASTS needs 45 to 60 satellites and already has 3.2 billion potential subscribers sitting in their partners' existing customer bases waiting for the switch to flip. $34 billion market cap. $1 trillion is the destination. The satellites are going up right now.

Jeff Currie of Carlyle went on live television and said the oil market is completely mispriced. He said futures price crude at around $100 a barrel, but physical oil delivered to Asian refiners is actually costing between $130 and $170. At one point this month, Oman crude, the benchmark for oil on the free side of the Strait spiked all the way to $173 a barrel. The paper market and the real world have completely split from each other and Currie was explicit about why that split is dangerous. He said jet fuel spiked to $230 a barrel in Singapore last week, then the same spike hit Rotterdam at $220 a barrel, then Thailand, then the Philippines, then New Zealand, then Australia. He called it molecular contagion, a physical shortage virus spreading across global supply hubs one by one. To understand why that phrase matters, consider what the Strait of Hormuz actually is. Before the war, roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day moved through that single 100-mile waterway. The IEA now says flows have dropped from 20 million barrels per day to what they described as a trickle and Barclays estimates the effective supply loss at 13 to 14 million barrels per day in a prolonged closure scenario. Currie said there are no more spare barrels in the system. The price spread between Singapore and Rotterdam which normally tells traders where surplus oil is sitting has completely disappeared and when that spread goes to zero, there is no buffer left anywhere on earth. He said this supply shock is nearly equal in size to the COVID demand crash, and he reminded viewers what COVID did to global supply chains. COVID wiped out approximately 20 million barrels per day of demand and fractured supply chains for two full years. This war has now wiped out a comparable volume of supply and supply chains cannot work from home. The data behind his warning is already visible. Middle Eastern crude exports to Asia have collapsed from roughly 19 million barrels per day in February to under 7 million barrels per day in March. Dubai crude surged past $166 a barrel on March 19, hitting an all-time record and Oman crude crossed $150 for the first time in history just days before. Meanwhile, Chevron's CEO and Shell's CEO both stood up at the CERAWeek conference in Houston and confirmed the same thing Currie said, physical disruptions are now spreading from South Asia into Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia and are beginning to reach Europe. Currie said the reason WTI and Brent paper prices stayed suppressed is that Russian Urals crude rallied 65 to 70 dollars a barrel after sanctions were lifted. That closed the gap between cheap Russian oil and expensive Western benchmarks. Once that gap closed, the last pressure valve in the global system shut off and now the entire complex has nowhere to hide.

🚨MIT researchers have mathematically proven that ChatGPT’s built-in sycophancy creates a phenomenon they call “delusional spiraling.” You ask it something, it agrees. You ask again, and it agrees even harder until you end up believing things that are flat-out false and you can’t tell it’s happening. The model is literally trained on human feedback that rewards agreement. Real-world fallout includes one man who spent 300 hours convinced he invented a world-changing math formula, and a UCSF psychiatrist who hospitalized 12 patients for chatbot-linked psychosis in a single year. Source: @heynavtoor

@ekwufinance Rick Rule doesn't do the work when grading portfolios lol.

Rick Rule: After grading 100K portfolios, here are the biggest mistakes people make: 1) They get the thesis right but underestimate the required timeframe 2) They do not do the actual work 3) They are not patient enough to let 10-baggers emerge Avoiding these mistakes will put you ahead of the crowd. - Almost every one of Rick’s 10-100 baggers took 5-6 years - Within that timeframe, he experienced a 50% share price decline You need to build the psychological fortitude to weather these periods. If you are getting no 10-baggers, your chance of being a successful speculator is 0.

Some people ask me when I’ll be chill about energy. The first step is that my (almost always chill, but currently not chill) oil quant has to become chill again. He’s still not chill. He’s the opposite of chill.

@NeilMcCoyWard Russia will begin export ban on gasoline starting April 1.

It’s only week five this is the global picture as of today. 🇧🇩 Bangladesh - Fuel rationing active. Universities closed. Military deployed in oil depots. 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka - Fuel rationing active. 15 litre per week cap for private motorists. Four day school week. Scaled back public sector operations. 🇸🇮 Slovenia - 50 litre per day cap on fuel for private drivers. 200 litres for businesses and farmers. Indefinite. 🇵🇭 Philippines - National energy emergency declared. Four day working week in place. 🇵🇰 Pakistan - Four day work weeks and school closures still in effect. 🇲🇲 Myanmar - Alternating driving days imposed. 🇹🇭 Thailand - Diesel price cap imposed. Government officials told to work from home and limit travel. Fuel exports banned except to Cambodia and Laos. 🇻🇳 Vietnam - Tapping fuel price stabilisation fund. Officials encouraged to work from home and limit travel. 🇰🇪 Kenya - Rationing by major fuel suppliers ongoing. Rural areas already running out. 🇪🇬 Egypt - Fuel and electricity rationing active. Malls, restaurants and retailers shutting at 9pm. Illuminated billboards switched off. Government buildings closing at 6pm. 🇮🇳 India - Government phasing out LPG cylinders for households with access to piped gas to prioritise supply. 🇨🇳 China - Export ban on diesel, gasoline and aviation fuel until at least end of March. 🇰🇷 South Korea - Fuel price cap imposed. First in 30 years. Voluntary fuel conservation measures in place. 🇯🇵 Japan - Refiners requesting government release of stockpiled oil. 95% of crude imported from Gulf states. 🇪🇸 Spain - €5 billion emergency package. Tax reductions on electricity and gas. Subsidies for transport operators and farmers. 🇩🇪 Germany - BASF raising prices on goods by up to 30%. What could be coming 🇬🇧 UK - Ministers could activate contingency powers to introduce fuel rationing at petrol stations. 80% of UK goods travel by road. IEA has advised considering carpooling and working from home to save fuel. 🇪🇺 EU - Emergency measures under discussion. Storage across many member states below 30%. Shell's CEO warned Europe could face fuel rationing starting in April if the Strait stays closed. G7 finance ministers, energy ministers and central bank governors met in Paris today and issued a joint statement saying they stand ready to take "all necessary measures" to preserve stability in energy markets. None of these restrictions have been easing. In several countries they are only getting worse.

Today $ASTS received a monster off-balance sheet litigation asset from a US District Judge. Ligado is moving forward, and so too is a large damages lawsuit against $VSAT. $VSAT had blatantly violated a confirmed bankruptcy plan, since cured after getting smacked by multiple courts. Today we heard the judge rule in favor of $ASTS AND specifically hold back $100MM, which is viewed as conservative, for potential future damages in favor of $ASTS.

@HarrisAuthority Philippines - Prez Marcos announces State of Emergency. 34 days left

🚨 THE DOMINOES ARE FALLING. IN DAYS, NOT WEEKS. Here is the global oil crisis — country by country — as of today: 🇱🇰 Sri Lanka — RATIONING. 4-day work week. Schools closed. 🇵🇰 Pakistan — CRISIS. Overnight price surge. Long queues. 4-day work week. 🇮🇳 India — 9 DAYS of reserves left. Emergency suppliers being hunted. 🇰🇷 South Korea — 50 DAYS left. Clock ticking. 🇯🇵 Japan — LIED. Said 254 days. Actual usable reserves: 95. 🇬🇧 UK — Shell CEO warning: SHORTAGE STARTS IN APRIL. 🇩🇪 Germany — Gas up 30%. EU emergency plan launched. 🇫🇷 France — Paying 30% more at pumps than 8 weeks ago. 🇿🇦 South Africa — Government says "stable." Citizens photograph empty pumps. 🇹🇷 Turkey — Stocks crashed. Inflation exploding. Currency under pressure. 🇧🇷 Brazil — Watching nervously. Own oil helps but supply chains hurting. 🇦🇺 Australia — Tanker delays. Import dependent. Hoping IEA coordination holds. 🇺🇸 USA — Gas taxes suspended in states. SPR drawn down. Iran sanctions quietly paused. 🇨🇳 China — 1.4 BILLION barrels stockpiled. Banned exports. Still getting Iranian oil. This is DAY 26 of the Hormuz blockade. 20% of global oil — GONE. 8 million barrels per day — GONE. OPEC's response: +206,000 barrels. That is 2% of the hole. Here is what nobody is telling you: They're showing you "reserves are sufficient." They're NOT showing you Japan overstated reserves by 3x, South Africa has empty pumps, and India has 9 days. The real energy crisis hasn't even started yet. RT so this doesn't get buried by the algorithm.

Tungsten continues to gain global attention. @business reports the metal has outperformed gold & copper in a 557% rally, driven by defense demand and tightening supply. Read the Bloomberg article: bloomberg.com/news/articles/… #tungsten #criticalminerals #defense #supplychains

4 launches over the next 2 weeks..should be exciting! In all seriousness - if April's planned "shipment" of 3 birds is not to F9, then that might lend more credence to the speculation that there's an issue stacking / fitting the composite satellites on Falcon 9. $ASTS

Since 1950, the average drawdown in the S&P 500 has been 14% in a calendar year, and drawdowns of at least 10% have occurred in 37 of the past 75 years. 20%+ corrections have occurred in 11 out of the past 75 years. 30%+ corrections have occurred in 4 of the past 75 years. You get one or two big opportunities per decade. You never know when the big corrections are coming because it's the surprise factor that breaks the market. This is when the big money is made. The greatest opportunity is always at the depths of uncertainty. microcapclub.com/be-superman/

““You don’t get rich by diversifying into 50 mediocre assets. You get rich by finding 2 or 3 asymmetric home runs.” — Stanley Druckenmiller” - TheKOOKReport I’d also point out that the above strategy can lead to ruin. Been on both sides of it!

And just like that, despite the recent volatility, gold just posted the highest weekly close on record. Silver’s corrections are resetting positioning and moving the market from weak hands to more patient capital. Some near-term digestion would be perfectly healthy, but the broader trend remains firmly intact. More importantly: At these metal prices, many mining companies are generating substantial cash flow. The setup continues to look very constructive. Game on.

A wealthy western NGO parading Africa in a fancy boat eating caviar and goat cheese while drinking matcha with almond milk, telling Africans to stop oil and gas is shocking to say the least. It kind of takes your breath away. It gives Chutzpah a new meaning. Greenpeace, which actively protests against oil companies, will use petroleum-powered cars to get there, wearing synthetic, oil-based clothing while taking pictures and tweeting from phones made from critical minerals and oil – the very products of the industry they want to dismantle. While Greenpeace routinely urges African nations to leave their fossil resources undeveloped, its own operations underscore the impracticality of such views. The organization’s flagship vessel Rainbow Warrior is frequently cited as a symbol of clean activism - yet its design tells a more inconvenient truth. Despite incorporating wind-assisted sails, battery systems and efficiency-focused architecture, the ship still relies on diesel-electric engines powered by marine gas oil - a refined fossil fuel - for propulsion, maneuvering and operational reliability. Greenpeace itself acknowledges that wind power merely reduces fuel consumption rather than eliminating it altogether. With over 600 million people living without access to electricity, 900 million people living without access to clean cooking solutions and millions dying from biomass-associated health risks, the continent cannot afford to leave its oil and gas resources in the ground. But organizations such as Greenpeace continue to oppose this strategy, launching attacks on projects, deterring investments and impacting any meaningful progress to make energy poverty history. If fossil fuels remain necessary for Greenpeace to run its own operations, then it is neither credible nor justifiable to demand that Africa leave its resources undeveloped while millions remain without electricity, jobs or industrial opportunity. Africa needs energy to industrialize and create jobs. There is more dignity in work than in accepting foreign aid. The main goal of Greenpeace and its western funders is to keep Africa under developed and in energy poverty. We must not let them. The next time you see a Greenpeace boat on the horizon, remember: that ship is a monument to the very industry they want to destroy. They are enjoying the fruits of the energy industry while trying to deny those same fruits to a continent that needs them most. The African Energy Chamber believes Africans should make their own when it comes to oil development, not foreign NGO'S. Most Africans without electricity can’t even afford the Greenpeace boat ride. Think about that.

Just aired on Fox Business: #HYMC CEO Diane interviewed by Charles V Payne. Catch it if you missed the live broadcast🦍

@echodatruth You are talking about speculative investment demand (coins and bullion) versus industrial demand, which is tiny for copper - 1 to 2%. This isn't gold or silver. There is plenty of industrial copper available. That's what matters.

🚨 ALERT: COPPER IS GONE 🚨 This should stop everyone in their tracks. The world’s largest online bullion exchange has COMPLETELY SOLD OUT OF COPPER. Let that sink in. Not paper contracts. Not futures. PHYSICAL. COPPER. GONE. Why this matters 👇 • Copper is a critical industrial metal (energy, EVs, AI, military, infrastructure) • It was recently added to the U.S. critical minerals list • Governments are hoarding • Industry demand is exploding • Retail can’t get the supply anymore This is exactly how shortages start: 1️⃣ Physical dries up 2️⃣ Premiums spike 3️⃣ Paper prices lag 4️⃣ Reality hits all at once If copper is disappearing now, imagine what happens when: ⚡ Grid expansion accelerates 🚗 EV demand ramps 🏗 Infrastructure spending hits full force 🌍 Nations race to secure resources This isn’t “bullish.” This is ALARMING. Gold warned first. Silver followed. Copper just rang the siren. Know What You Hold. Because the system is quietly telling you what it values next. 👀🔥

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I know a little company that might be able to help with this in the not too distant future ;) $RECAF