CapitalEdge

Periodical reminder that the S&P requires 'reasons' to sell off, and not reasons to rally. Also, another reminder that there is very little benefit in getting married to any particular bias, but were you to get married to one, in the long run history favours a bullish one. There will be fluctuations and sell offs along the way, but for better long-term mental health you'd probably want to be the person on the right far more often than the person on the left. Just saying. Have fun.

If you're an active trader you have to read this...and then read it again.

FX Vol latest

Arno (@Capital_Edge_) on Brent Crude positioning

Brent positioning is flashing bearish. But the geopolitical backdrop couldn't be more bullish. So which one is right? The answer depends on what positioning is actually measuring right now, and it's not what most people think. Want to know more about the market? Drop your question in the comments. #CrudeOil #OilMarkets #Commodities #TradingPsychology #MarketPositioning #WTI #Brent #ICE #NYMEX #MacroTrading #EnergyMarkets #GeopoliticalRisk #TradingMindset #AskArno

Quick comparison on rate expectations for the FOMC following yesterday's decision. Notable hawkish shift across the curve, and rate markets pricing reflects what we know right now, but the path is HIGHLY dependent on the path for oil prices and inflation.

$US100 new highs after solid earnings from $GOOGL and $AMZN Reminder that the weighting in names like $GOOGL (>10% of $NAS100) and $AMZN (>6% of $NDAQ) , meaning they matter more on good earnings than $META, which is closer to 4% in weighting.

Meanwhile, at the BoJ and MoF...

$USDJPY pushing towards the July high near 162... the BoJ is in a tough spot because it's hard to argue against the fundamental upside. Might see some jawboning from the MoF later.

$US100 within striking distance of all-time highs as $GOOGL and $AMZN push higher in after-market trading following solid earnings results.

Yields will rise after the FOMC sees rate markets pricing 17 basis points of tightening by the middle of next year. Goes without saying, but the blue line (oil) is all that matters for these expectations right now.

@VolaTim @PiQSuite 😂😂100%

@Capital_Edge_ @PiQSuite There's always ample opportunity with him tbf

Arno (@Capital_Edge_) on tomorrow’s BoE decision 👇

@VolaTim @PiQSuite 😂😂 There was ample opportunity, but unfortunately I didn't, next time though, just for you Tim

@PiQSuite @Capital_Edge_ If he doesn't insult Andrew Bailey, I'm not watching it

Interesting setup in Brent positioning at the moment. Similar to the divergence between ICE and NYMEX in both March and June 2022.

The BoE is priced to hold rates. Focus for the decision will centre around any drastic shifts in the vote-split, as well as the bank's language around the market's expectations for two hikes by year-end. Some thoughts from our Market Analyst, Arno 👇 fusionmarkets.com.au/posts/boe-deci…

Rate markets have priced in very close to 3 hikes by year-end, with a 87% chance of a May hike. That means the bar for even more hawkish pricing might be a bit high heading into this one.

The forecast distribution is fairly tight, and given the RBA's sensitivity to inflation risks, any print at or below the min or at or above the max expectations could carry more weight than usual.

Aussie CPI coming up at 01:30 UTC Markets expect a sizeable pop in headline CPI, with very little acceleration seen in key core measures like the Trimmed Mean. Worth noting we get both the monthly & quarterly measures, but RBA decisions will be based largely on quarterly figs

@PiQSuite Both good and smart doing some serious heavy lifting there 😂

Great to see my boy @Capital_Edge_ back on X more regularly with his market analysis. One of the good guys, and one of the smartest guys.

Big Tech earnings on the schedule this week 👇 Tech makes up over 50% of the #US100, and close to 40% of that comes from these 5 of the 'MAG 7'. Given their big share in the Index, their earnings and guidance can impact broader risk sentiment, whether positive or negative.

Another all-time high for #US500 But not everyone is celebrating, with some investors cautious due to the unresolved conflict. As the market climbs the wall of worry, the burden of proof falls to the bears and not the bulls, with eyes turning to Big Tech earnings.