Doug Morehouse

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Doug Morehouse

Doug Morehouse

@DMo2010

Husband, Father, Farmer - Child of God - Hoosier by birth Boilermaker by the grace of God & sarcastic, mostly sarcastic

Prairie Hawk Estates IN เข้าร่วม Kasım 2012
884 กำลังติดตาม863 ผู้ติดตาม
Kyle
Kyle@KsStockton·
@shanaka86 Came to burn your awful "corn belt" map but realized you have so much info misleading if not just wrong that all I know to say is that you might want to stay away from talking about the farm gate. You don't understand it and are embarrassing yourself, not helping anyone.
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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86·
A law written for energy independence is now the mechanism for food dependence. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates that 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol be blended into American transportation fuel annually. That volume consumes approximately 43 percent of the US corn crop. The mandate was established by the Energy Policy Act of 2005 and expanded by the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. It was designed for a world where corn was abundant and America wanted to reduce reliance on foreign oil. That world no longer exists. Corn acres are falling to 94 million from 98.8 million because urea at $610 makes the nitrogen economics impossible. The RFS takes its 15 billion gallons from a shrinking harvest. The percentage of remaining corn available for feed, food, and export compresses with every acre that switches to soybeans. The mandate does not flex. The biology does. Waiving the RFS requires the EPA Administrator to make a formal determination that implementation would cause severe economic or environmental harm. The process involves a public comment period, regulatory review, and potential legal challenges from the ethanol industry. The EPA proposed 2026 and 2027 RFS volume requirements in June 2025 and has been targeting Q1 2026 for the final rule. The rulemaking machinery was designed for normal agricultural cycles. It was not designed for a war that closed the world’s most important fertiliser transit route during planting season. Even if the EPA Administrator initiated a waiver today, the timeline from announcement to implementation stretches weeks to months. The corn planting window closes in three to four weeks. The legal process cannot outrun the biological calendar. By the time a waiver could take effect, the acreage decisions it was meant to influence would already be irreversible. The RFS is the transmission belt that converts a fertiliser crisis into a food crisis. Without the mandate, a shrinking corn crop would still produce less total output, but the available supply could be allocated flexibly between feed, food, and fuel based on market signals. With the mandate, 43 percent of whatever corn exists is legally spoken for before a single hen eats a kernel or a single tortilla is pressed. The flexibility that markets provide is overridden by the rigidity that law imposes. The cattle herd is at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low. Poultry operations rebuilt from the 2025 avian flu but face rising feed costs. Dairy herds are contracting. Every animal that eats corn competes with a fuel pump that has legal priority. The protein cascade, from corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the grocery shelf, begins at the point where the RFS takes its cut. Corn Belt legislators who championed the RFS to support their farming constituents now face a perverse outcome: the law they wrote to help farmers is the law that prevents the market from adjusting to a crisis their farmers are living through. The ethanol industry will resist any waiver. The livestock industry will demand one. The consumer will pay the difference. And the EPA rulemaking process was designed for annual adjustments, not emergency response during a 21-day-old war. Fifteen billion gallons. Written into statute. Consuming 43 percent of a crop that just lost 4.8 million acres to a fertiliser price that originates in a strait the law never contemplated. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡ tweet media
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

JUST IN: The most irreversible consequence of this war is not happening in Tehran. It is happening in a barn in Iowa. A farmer is standing over a kitchen table looking at two seed catalogues. One is corn. One is soybeans. Corn needs 180 pounds of nitrogen per acre. Nitrogen costs $610 per ton on the CBOT March futures settlement as of yesterday, up 35 percent in a month. Soybeans fix their own nitrogen from the atmosphere through root bacteria called rhizobia. They need nothing from the Strait of Hormuz. The farmer is choosing soybeans. Millions of acres are choosing soybeans. And once the planter rolls into the field, the choice cannot be reversed until next year. USDA projected corn at roughly 94 million acres for 2026, down from 98.8 million. Soybeans at 85 million, up from 81.2 million. Those projections were published February 19, before urea surged past $683 at New Orleans. The actual shift will be larger. USDA Prospective Plantings reports March 31. By then the seeds will be in the ground. This is the transmission channel the world is not watching. A 21-mile strait enforced by provincial commanders with sealed radio orders just rewrote the planting economics of 90 million acres of the most productive farmland on Earth. Not through sanctions. Not through diplomacy. Through the price of a single molecule that corn cannot grow without and soybeans do not need. Now follow the cascade. The Renewable Fuel Standard mandates 15 billion gallons of corn ethanol annually. That consumes roughly 43 percent of the entire US corn crop. The mandate is set by the EPA. It does not flex when corn acres shrink. It is inelastic demand consuming a fixed share of a declining supply. When supply tightens against a fixed mandate, the remaining corn reprices upward. Corn above $5 per bushel compresses every margin downstream. The US cattle herd stands at 86.2 million head, a 75-year low per USDA NASS. Poultry and pork operations face compression from higher corn prices. Feed is the single largest cost in livestock production. When feed reprices, protein reprices. When protein reprices, every grocery shelf in America absorbs the increase. This is the protein cascade. Corn to feed to meat to eggs to dairy to the checkout counter. Each link tightens because the link before it tightened. The originating cause is a urea molecule that cannot transit a strait because a provincial commander’s sealed orders say it cannot. The farmer did not start this war. The farmer cannot end it. The farmer responds to the price on the screen and the biology of the two crops in front of him. Corn needs the molecule. Soybeans do not. At $610 the arithmetic is settled. The planter rolls. The season is locked. Israel just authorised the assassination of every Iranian official on sight. The US has spent $16.5 billion. South Pars is burning. The Fed is holding rates because oil inflation will not break. Gold touched $5,000. Bitcoin is bleeding. China is running exercises near Taiwan. Sri Lanka shut down on Wednesdays. And underneath all of it, a man in a barn is making the decision that determines whether four billion people pay more for food this year. He has never heard of the Mosaic Doctrine. He does not know what a sealed contingency packet is. He knows what nitrogen costs. And he is planting soybeans. Full analysis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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NBC News
NBC News@NBCNews·
NASCAR indefinitely suspends Daniel Dye — a second major penalty against the young driver — after he used what he called a "gay voice" to mock another racer during a livestream. nbcnews.com/news/us-news/n…
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Bodie Kitchel
Bodie Kitchel@Bkitch1Bodie·
Just absolutely love to see it! First bin almost emptied. It’s been a huge learning experience for never having bins but I’m glad we did it. Corn is moving smoothly today and that makes ya feel better
Bodie Kitchel tweet media
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JJWalker
JJWalker@CoachWalker1981·
@itsAntWright Officiating has been bad both ways. Numerous calls not being made and barely any contact called.
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ᗩᑎT ᗯᖇIGᕼT
ᗩᑎT ᗯᖇIGᕼT@itsAntWright·
Refs just screwed Purdue.. call the first foul on Benter and that play doesn’t happen
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Jordan Stocks
Jordan Stocks@StockTalks21·
💀💀💀
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Dozzzzz
Dozzzzz@DozzzzzEric·
Anyone have a purple brand mattress?
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Ben Scholl
Ben Scholl@ottoscholl·
With friends like these....
Kyle@KsStockton

@ottoscholl Not in Central IL, not interested in a side hustle. But thanks for the offer.

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Eric Wappel
Eric Wappel@wapp56·
@tihoma Honestly, I drove past this and it looks easier to clean up than where farmsteads got hit and their sheds and grain bins are scattered across hundreds of acres
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adam baldwin
adam baldwin@iamyourfarmer·
There was a time when ag twitter actually still existed and there were people focused on tweeting how much better of a marketer they were than you. Then all those guys got their face ripped off when Russia invaded Ukraine. Twitter hasn’t been the same since.
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Garrett Toay
Garrett Toay@agtradertalk·
If the cartel takes over Gatlinburg the end of March I’m gonna be pissed
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Cody Etter
Cody Etter@Cetter15·
@bprofit09 On the bright side, I won’t be able afford one of these until my kids are old enough to not press it out of curiosity.
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Brock A Profit
Brock A Profit@bprofit09·
Anyone who has ever had a kid ride with them knows immediately how terribly placed these buttons are.
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Doug Morehouse
Doug Morehouse@DMo2010·
@GoddessofGrain The Supreme Court did not convene till 1790 and was not established until 1789 Do better
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