Devesh
673 posts

Devesh
@Diamondhunteerr
Think in systems, not headlines.



Xi is insecure about his powers, there is a growing coup against him in PLA. Also US blocking strait of hormouz will disrupt chinese gas supply from ME and if US allows Europe to buy russian gas, russian supply will diverge which will be a disaster for china. They'll try to divert the situation from their public also, can try some misadventure like taiwan invasion or near galwan valley.


🇨🇳🇺🇸 Everyone is focused on what the blockade does to Iran. Nobody is talking about what it does to China. About 5.5 million barrels of Chinese crude imports and 30% of its LNG flow through the Strait of Hormuz every day, roughly half of China's total oil supply mix. China has an estimated 1.2-1.4 billion barrels in reserves. Sounds enormous, right? But a reserve isn’t immunity, it’s a clock. The disruption started February 28th, meaning China has burned through roughly 45 days of that buffer already, putting the crunch point at around June 8th. And it’s more than an economic concern: The same reserve barrels China would need for a Taiwan military contingency are the barrels it may need just to keep its factories running. Every barrel used to stabilize the domestic economy is one fewer barrel available to the People's Liberation Army, whose wartime fuel window is estimated at just 60-100 days. Russia helps through overland pipelines, but Russia doesn't solve this, you can’t just snap a pipeline into existence. China looks terrifying on paper: carriers, hypersonics, rocket brigades… but industrial warfare is downstream of logistics, and logistics is downstream of energy. You don't have to destroy China to constrain it, you just have to make it burn its reserve barrels faster than it can replace them. June 8th, start the countdown… Source: @RyanMcbeth

The standard for male artist is so low



















