Dominick Donald

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Dominick Donald

Dominick Donald

@DominickGDonald

Geopolitical risk analysis by day, fictional mayhem by night. Advisor to marine war risk market since 2004. Ex-lots of things, some of them useful.

Oxfordshire เข้าร่วม Ağustos 2018
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Dominick Donald
Dominick Donald@DominickGDonald·
@zappaterrologo Still not convinced - all bar the shadow fleet seem pretty weak. The GCC loathes & fears al-Sharaa, so no soft power from Syria links; Syria has no money for arms sales; + al-Sharaa has said Russia is welcome & has not closed Tartus etc. I'm sure I'm missing something but...
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Dominick Donald
Dominick Donald@DominickGDonald·
I can see clearly the benefit of Ukrainian engagement with 🇹🇷, the 🇦🇪, 🇸🇦 and 🇶🇦, but Syria? (Even if Turkey are the brokers, as it appears). Preventing 🇷🇺 getting its foothold back? Halting Syrian purchases of stolen grain? Basing for ops against the shadow fleet?
The Kyiv Independent@KyivIndependent

⚡️Zelensky arrives in Syria for talks with leadership amid Middle East war Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Syria on April 5, the latest in a string of visits to the Middle East in the wake of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Zelensky will meet with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa in Damascus, Syria TV said. kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arriv…

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Dominick Donald
Dominick Donald@DominickGDonald·
So: 🇷🇸's military say: it isn't 🇺🇦; the source of explosives ≠ culpability; but they're 🇺🇸 explosives so it's the 🇺🇸. I *think* the message is it's a 🇺🇸-backed effort to u/mine 🇷🇸 - but what *is* clear is that the 🇷🇸 mil is not having the 🇺🇦-did-it story Orban needs.
Yasmina@yasminalombaert

Transcript of Serbian General Jovanić’s address to a general audience: Moderator: Ladies and gentlemen, regarding today's events in the area of the villages of Trešnjevac and Vojvoda Zimonjić, the Director of the Military Security Agency, Lieutenant General Đuro Jovanić, will address us. General, please, come forward. Đuro Jovanić: We met in the early morning hours during the execution of an operational action taking place in the territory of Kanjiža. I can tell you that today, some of you were witnesses to an extremely successful action by the Serbian security services. This operational action was preceded by some time. For months, we have been signaling to the Commander-in-Chief and President Aleksandar Vučić, as well as the state leadership, that something like this could happen today. I must be honest—we encountered disapproval and disagreements, for example, in cases where we had to present relevant signs that compressor stations and gas infrastructure could be endangered. Of course, the state leadership manages resources carefully—this is extremely expensive, but beyond being expensive, it requires additional efforts, meaning enormous efforts on the part of the military. What I want to say is that today’s work was preceded by operational field work. There was a good exchange of information with related services, and in this specific case of what happened today, we had information that a person from a militarily trained migrant group would attempt to sabotage the gas infrastructure. Of course, we faced—and face daily—a lot of misinformation, most often regarding the timing and method of the act itself, i.e., the sabotage attempt. Today, after a successful action, we are also facing disinformation. We are looking for that person, and we will certainly take them into custody. The only question is whether the investigation will take three days or several months. But as always, we perform our duties consistently. What I want to say is that the disinformation continues. Disinformation suggesting that the Serbian army and its members would work for some other or third party by stealing Ukrainian explosives, and therefore accusing the Ukrainians of organizing the sabotage. Let me say immediately that this is not true. It is not true because what does it matter who the manufacturer of the explosives is? It does not mean they ordered it or carried it out. Today we successfully searched the area, and during that, we found the following: Here you can see the specially packaged, hermetically sealed explosives. You can see specially prepared and packaged items, as well as the fuse and the explosive, and other tools and equipment. I will reveal one detail from the investigation: the markings on the explosive clearly show that it was manufactured in the United States of America—meaning that the United States is supporting something like this at this moment. Please, inform the public. The Serbian army is a serious institution, and the Serbian army consistently carries out all its tasks. The Serbian army does not interfere in the political processes of the Republic of Serbia, let alone the political processes of any other country. We are continuing our work. Teams are already working on preparing all these pieces of evidence found today for forensic examination. We will be coming forward with new information very shortly. Long live Serbia!

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Dominick Donald
Dominick Donald@DominickGDonald·
@zappaterrologo Thx v much. I think my question is more about the big-picture future. The Gulf has money & clout of its own; Syria, not so much. So what is the benefit to 🇺🇦 of a strategic relationship? (The benefit to al-Sharaa is clear.)
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Dominick Donald
Dominick Donald@DominickGDonald·
I remember the first time I was asked if I wanted to parachute I said I'd be happy to if the plane was broken but otherwise meh. This did not go down well. (For the record, I had no problem with fighting, and was indeed accused of an unhealthy eagerness on the bayonet run...)
16 Air Assault Brigade Combat Team@16AirAssltBCT

"Show me a man who will jump out of an airplane and I'll show you a man who will fight." Lt Gen James 'Jumpin' Jim' Gavin Find out more: army.mod.uk/news/army-and-…

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Dominick Donald
Dominick Donald@DominickGDonald·
As an editorial writer during NATO's 1999 air war vs Yugoslavia, I said precedent pointed to real damage being only 25% of NATO's claims. The Defence Editor (& the paper) believed NATO. Afterwards he went into Kosovo & saw burnt plywood tanks & wrote an award-winning exposé.
Nicole Grajewski@NicoleGrajewski

Good piece by @nytimes, key point here on why getting a precise number on Iranian missiles has been difficult nytimes.com/2026/04/03/us/…

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Dominick Donald
Dominick Donald@DominickGDonald·
In the last 2 weeks Zelensky has lined up defence agreements with: 🇹🇷 🇸🇦 🇦🇪 🇶🇦 & a drone production deal w 🇧🇬 (to handle global demand). Before, the only region with a hard vested interest in a sovereign independent 🇺🇦 was Europe. Now, it's the Gulf too. Real strategic depth.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський@ZelenskyyUa

During a meeting with President of Türkiye @RTErdogan in Istanbul, we discussed bilateral relations between our countries, as well as the situation in Europe and the Middle East. It is important that joint and coordinated actions strengthen the protection of life and help deliver greater security to people in every part of the world. We agreed on new steps in security cooperation. This primarily concerns areas where we can support Türkiye – expertise, technology, and experience. There is firm political readiness to work together, and our teams will finalize the details in the coming days. We discussed practical steps to implement joint projects in developing gas infrastructure, as well as opportunities for joint development of gas fields. I am grateful to the President and the people of Türkiye for their consistent support for our independence and territorial integrity. We value our close cooperation over all these years, which enables us to work on truly significant projects that can strengthen our entire region.

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Dominick Donald รีทวีตแล้ว
Patrick Bury
Patrick Bury@PatrickBury·
The Iran war has caused a lot of people to clock how thin UK defences actually are. But the uncomfortable truth is: Brexit has made the economy ~4% smaller. That’s ~£100bn/year; £35–45bn/year less tax. And the current Defence budget? ~£60bn. Without Brexit we could have maintained a military fit for purpose, a better NHS… and less potholes! Instead we’re arguing about which to prioritise while having permanently shrunk the economy that pays for it. Brexit was an act of strategic self harm that has left Britain economically and militarily weaker, right as the world gets more volatile …
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Dominick Donald
Dominick Donald@DominickGDonald·
The 'all necessary means' wording is routinely misunderstood. People think it means total war or something. Actually it's just boilerplate that accompanies a Chapter VII resolution (which allows enforcement action and/or the deployment of a war-fighting capability).
Dr. Carol E. B. Choksy@cchoksy

UN Security Council split over Bahrain draft calling for ‘all necessary means’ to secure Strait of Hormuz | The National thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/0…

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Dominick Donald
Dominick Donald@DominickGDonald·
🇷🇺 may have lost 15 generals in four years but in the 1956 Suez invasion the 🇬🇧 & 🇲🇫 put at least 6 in one landing craft and then pointed them at an enemy-held shore. They only changed course when the Egyptians shot up the craft.
Igor Sushko@igorsushko

💥 Russian Lieutenant General Alexander Otroshchenko and 6 officers among 29 killed aboard the plane over occupied Crimea. 14th Russian general to be eliminated since 2022. Commander of the Northern Fleet's Mixed Aviation Corps.

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Dominick Donald รีทวีตแล้ว
ᐱ ᑎ ᑐ ᒋ ᕮ ᒍ
The reason there's a rift between Europe and Russia (I mean apart from the fact that Russia is dropping bombs on Europe) is that Russia doesn't see 90% of Europe as legitimate geopolitical actors. Every door was open in the 90s but Russia is simply deeply offended by the idea that they would sit at a table with the likes of Belgium or Denmark (let alone Poland or the Baltics) as actual equals. Whatever US policy in Europe has been, Americans didn't change the Russian nature.
Pascal-Emmanuel Gobry@pegobry_en

The irony with all this is that the reason there’s a rift between Europe and Russia is because of US policy. Europe-Russia is a much more natural alliance in many ways than Europe-US. This shit is so tiresome

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Dominick Donald
Dominick Donald@DominickGDonald·
The snag with this is that the Chinese will tell themselves that both of these wars were set in train by staggering political and strategic incompetents (which they were) and that they won't be as dumb, no sir.
Tatarigami_UA@Tatarigami_UA

The recent struggles of two ostensibly dominant global military powers (the United States and Russia) to meet their stated objectives, despite initial advantages, should give China serious pause as it contemplates the most complex amphibious operation against Taiwan in history

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Dominick Donald
Dominick Donald@DominickGDonald·
I don't know about most of the content of this tweet, but the bit about war risk insurance is so egregiously wrong - by a factor of about 5 - that it makes me suspect the rest ofbit might be horses**t too
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86

The Strait of Hormuz is not closed. It is sorted. Iran has built a three-tier access system for the most important waterway on earth. Tier one: allies transit free. Malaysia cleared seven vessels through diplomacy at zero cost. India negotiated zero-fee passage. Pakistan secured clearance for 20 ships. Iraq transits without charge. These countries proved geopolitical alignment and the IRGC waved them through the Larak corridor without collecting a rial. Tier two: compliant neutrals pay. At least two tankers, likely Chinese-linked, paid up to two million dollars each in yuan through Kunlun Bank intermediaries. COSCO container ships attempted the corridor, were turned back on first approach when documentation was incomplete, then succeeded days later with revised paperwork. These are the vessels that prove the system works. They submit IMO numbers, ownership chains, cargo manifests, and crew lists to the IRGC’s Hormozgan Command. They receive clearance codes. They are escorted by pilot boats through the five-nautical-mile channel between Qeshm and Larak. They pay in a currency that does not route through SWIFT. Every successful yuan transit is a live proof-of-concept for non-dollar energy settlement. Tier three: adversaries are denied entirely. The committee plan bans American vessels, Israeli vessels, and vessels from any country participating in sanctions against Iran. These ships do not get vetting. They do not get codes. They do not get escorts. They get the AL SALMI, burning off Dubai, as illustration of what the corridor looks like without permission. But the toll is not the real cost. War-risk insurance is. Premiums have surged from $40,000 per VLCC transit before the war to $600,000 to $1.2 million today, a 30-fold increase, now running five to ten percent of hull value. A VLCC carrying $50 million in crude oil can absorb a combined $3 million in toll and insurance as a fraction of cargo value. A container ship carrying $5 million in manufactured goods cannot. The insurance premium alone exceeds the profit margin on non-oil cargo. The strait has become an oil-only VIP lane. Crude flows selectively for those who can pay the combined cost. Everything else waits, reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope, or does not move at all. And the US Navy is not inside the strait. The Abraham Lincoln strike group operates from standoff in the Arabian Sea. Three Littoral Combat Ships sit in the Persian Gulf. Marine expeditionary units are positioned for contingency. But zero American warships have transited the strait or escorted commercial traffic since the war began. The Navy told the shipping industry it has “no availability” for Hormuz escorts. The world’s most powerful fleet keeps respectful distance from a waterway controlled by a country whose navy is 92 percent destroyed because the mines, drones, and shore missiles that remain make close-in presence prohibitively risky. The result is a geopolitical sorting algorithm operating at the molecular level. One hundred and eighty-one vessels transited in all of March. Pre-war traffic was 138 per day. Of those 181, roughly 70 percent were Iranian-affiliated. The remaining 30 percent were vetted allies or yuan-paying neutrals. The 20 percent of global oil that once flowed freely through this strait now flows selectively, conditionally, and in currencies chosen by Tehran. Iran lost its air force. It lost its navy. It lost two thirds of its production capacity. It retained the only thing that matters: 39 kilometres of coastline on both sides of the narrowest point. The US Navy will not enter. Chinese tankers will. And the sorting algorithm processes another vessel, collects another yuan payment, and demonstrates once more that geography is the one military asset that cannot be degraded by precision strikes. The strait is not closed. It is under new management. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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toomas hendrik ilves
toomas hendrik ilves@IlvesToomas·
Not to worry. In two weeks we will see one of two outcomes: 1. Fidesz and Orban are out of office. 2. They "win" using the old Russian bag of tricks: ballot stuffing, intimidation, titushki beating people. If #2, they will be suspended from the EU. And something Maidan-like. Either way, in the end, the top leadership will have fled to Moscow and the Fidesz apparatchiks will face trial.
Marcus Kolga 🇨🇦🇪🇪🇺🇦@kolga

Orbanists are becoming embarrassingly desperate. @CatherineBelton was slapped with a lawsuit by Roman Abramovich a Russian oligarch, close Putin associate, and target of Western sanctions. This is a a politically motivated smear - and a clear case of crude transnational repression.

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exit266
exit266@exit266·
@DominickGDonald Have they had the weapons to do something like this at an inflection point before?
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Dominick Donald
Dominick Donald@DominickGDonald·
Could 🇺🇦's attack on Primorsk & Ust-Luga - its biggest ever oil strike: 40% + of 🇷🇺's Baltic oil export capacity knocked out - be a response? The limits of 🇺🇦's oil targeting have always been set by what 🇺🇸 will tolerate. Now 🇺🇸 has lost its leverage & 🇺🇦 can tell it to f off.
Reuters@Reuters

Exclusive: The US has made its offer of security guarantees needed for a peace deal in Ukraine conditional on Kyiv ceding all of the country's eastern region of Donbas to Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters reut.rs/3NPWIkK

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