
Dominick Donald
8.9K posts

Dominick Donald
@DominickGDonald
Geopolitical risk analysis by day, fictional mayhem by night. Advisor to marine war risk market since 2004. Ex-lots of things, some of them useful.



⚡️Zelensky arrives in Syria for talks with leadership amid Middle East war Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky arrived in Syria on April 5, the latest in a string of visits to the Middle East in the wake of the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. Zelensky will meet with Syrian President Ahmad al-Sharaa in Damascus, Syria TV said. kyivindependent.com/zelensky-arriv…



"Show me a man who will jump out of an airplane and I'll show you a man who will fight." Lt Gen James 'Jumpin' Jim' Gavin Find out more: army.mod.uk/news/army-and-…



Good piece by @nytimes, key point here on why getting a precise number on Iranian missiles has been difficult nytimes.com/2026/04/03/us/…

During a meeting with President of Türkiye @RTErdogan in Istanbul, we discussed bilateral relations between our countries, as well as the situation in Europe and the Middle East. It is important that joint and coordinated actions strengthen the protection of life and help deliver greater security to people in every part of the world. We agreed on new steps in security cooperation. This primarily concerns areas where we can support Türkiye – expertise, technology, and experience. There is firm political readiness to work together, and our teams will finalize the details in the coming days. We discussed practical steps to implement joint projects in developing gas infrastructure, as well as opportunities for joint development of gas fields. I am grateful to the President and the people of Türkiye for their consistent support for our independence and territorial integrity. We value our close cooperation over all these years, which enables us to work on truly significant projects that can strengthen our entire region.


Turkmenistan had a military show to impress the son of the dictator and it was as awesome as you'd expect.

UN Security Council split over Bahrain draft calling for ‘all necessary means’ to secure Strait of Hormuz | The National thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/0…


This is the reality. No-one is going to put warships escorting a slow moving convoy through the Strait in the face of Iranian opposition. Ergo it has to be on the basis of negotiation, as I have been saying from the outset.

💥 Russian Lieutenant General Alexander Otroshchenko and 6 officers among 29 killed aboard the plane over occupied Crimea. 14th Russian general to be eliminated since 2022. Commander of the Northern Fleet's Mixed Aviation Corps.

The irony with all this is that the reason there’s a rift between Europe and Russia is because of US policy. Europe-Russia is a much more natural alliance in many ways than Europe-US. This shit is so tiresome




The recent struggles of two ostensibly dominant global military powers (the United States and Russia) to meet their stated objectives, despite initial advantages, should give China serious pause as it contemplates the most complex amphibious operation against Taiwan in history

The Strait of Hormuz is not closed. It is sorted. Iran has built a three-tier access system for the most important waterway on earth. Tier one: allies transit free. Malaysia cleared seven vessels through diplomacy at zero cost. India negotiated zero-fee passage. Pakistan secured clearance for 20 ships. Iraq transits without charge. These countries proved geopolitical alignment and the IRGC waved them through the Larak corridor without collecting a rial. Tier two: compliant neutrals pay. At least two tankers, likely Chinese-linked, paid up to two million dollars each in yuan through Kunlun Bank intermediaries. COSCO container ships attempted the corridor, were turned back on first approach when documentation was incomplete, then succeeded days later with revised paperwork. These are the vessels that prove the system works. They submit IMO numbers, ownership chains, cargo manifests, and crew lists to the IRGC’s Hormozgan Command. They receive clearance codes. They are escorted by pilot boats through the five-nautical-mile channel between Qeshm and Larak. They pay in a currency that does not route through SWIFT. Every successful yuan transit is a live proof-of-concept for non-dollar energy settlement. Tier three: adversaries are denied entirely. The committee plan bans American vessels, Israeli vessels, and vessels from any country participating in sanctions against Iran. These ships do not get vetting. They do not get codes. They do not get escorts. They get the AL SALMI, burning off Dubai, as illustration of what the corridor looks like without permission. But the toll is not the real cost. War-risk insurance is. Premiums have surged from $40,000 per VLCC transit before the war to $600,000 to $1.2 million today, a 30-fold increase, now running five to ten percent of hull value. A VLCC carrying $50 million in crude oil can absorb a combined $3 million in toll and insurance as a fraction of cargo value. A container ship carrying $5 million in manufactured goods cannot. The insurance premium alone exceeds the profit margin on non-oil cargo. The strait has become an oil-only VIP lane. Crude flows selectively for those who can pay the combined cost. Everything else waits, reroutes around the Cape of Good Hope, or does not move at all. And the US Navy is not inside the strait. The Abraham Lincoln strike group operates from standoff in the Arabian Sea. Three Littoral Combat Ships sit in the Persian Gulf. Marine expeditionary units are positioned for contingency. But zero American warships have transited the strait or escorted commercial traffic since the war began. The Navy told the shipping industry it has “no availability” for Hormuz escorts. The world’s most powerful fleet keeps respectful distance from a waterway controlled by a country whose navy is 92 percent destroyed because the mines, drones, and shore missiles that remain make close-in presence prohibitively risky. The result is a geopolitical sorting algorithm operating at the molecular level. One hundred and eighty-one vessels transited in all of March. Pre-war traffic was 138 per day. Of those 181, roughly 70 percent were Iranian-affiliated. The remaining 30 percent were vetted allies or yuan-paying neutrals. The 20 percent of global oil that once flowed freely through this strait now flows selectively, conditionally, and in currencies chosen by Tehran. Iran lost its air force. It lost its navy. It lost two thirds of its production capacity. It retained the only thing that matters: 39 kilometres of coastline on both sides of the narrowest point. The US Navy will not enter. Chinese tankers will. And the sorting algorithm processes another vessel, collects another yuan payment, and demonstrates once more that geography is the one military asset that cannot be degraded by precision strikes. The strait is not closed. It is under new management. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Orbanists are becoming embarrassingly desperate. @CatherineBelton was slapped with a lawsuit by Roman Abramovich a Russian oligarch, close Putin associate, and target of Western sanctions. This is a a politically motivated smear - and a clear case of crude transnational repression.


Exclusive: The US has made its offer of security guarantees needed for a peace deal in Ukraine conditional on Kyiv ceding all of the country's eastern region of Donbas to Russia, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told Reuters reut.rs/3NPWIkK