Doug Peta

@BrentBeshore @PermanentEquity You forgot to mention the semi-annual bond issues to fund dividends to return all the GP’s capital and then some. April Fool!

After years of resisting industry norms, we’ve decided to modernize @PermanentEquity. Going forward, we will charge: a 2% management fee on committed capital a 2% management fee on invested capital a 2% management fee on appreciated capital a 1% transaction fee a 1% monitoring fee a 1% technology fee a 1% convenience fee a 1% liquidity-preference optimization fee and, for the sake of alignment, a still-evolving alignment fee We believe this new structure better reflects our highly credentialed pedigree, tremendous success, and of course our commitment to capturing value wherever it accidentally appears.

The article talks about Fibonacci retracement but today was the seventh straight session that the S&P closed below its 200-day moving average.

@bcaresearch @business The article looks for support at 50% retracement (~5,980), but the simpler technical story is that the index has broken below its 200-day moving average and each attempt to get back above it over the last six sessions has been repelled.

⚠️ Energy chokepoint keeps pressure on risk Our US Investment Strategist @DougPeta told @business: 🛢️ Until Hormuz flows normalize, inflation pressure is likely to stay elevated 📉 Higher energy costs could keep weighing on global growth ⚠️ From a technical perspective, the worst may not be over yet bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

You mean like saying investment banks do “God’s work?”

Agreed, especially with the savings rate already near its lows. But January’s 0.8% month-over-month rise in aggregate weekly payrolls (workers * avg hourly earnings * avg weekly hours) means that the gap will narrow next month and the OBBBA tax refunds are coming.

It made my week to learn @greg_ip has been following @bcaresearch for the 30 years I’ve been reading him. Btw, our math checks out: after taxes, a 10% gain in equities is tantamount to an 18% boost in income. Wealth’s influence on activity is rising.

Full disclosure: This post was written by a Commanders fan from the DMV. Just sayin’

Thanks to @BNNBloomberg for giving @bcaresearch a chance to weigh in on D.C.’s latest private sector intervention. You really can’t take @ChicagoBooth out of the strategist, even if he graduated an eternity ago. bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/th…

There’s still nothing doing on the hiring front away from Health Care & Social Assistance and Leisure & Hospitality. Don’t be fooled by December’s unemployment rate decline; the Fed will cut more than expected this year.

Health care and social assistance cemented its hold over hiring in October and November, while leisure and hospitality remains the only other source of meaningful YTD job creation. We’re lucky to have those spaces, but they don’t pay well.

@juleshyman From the first Yo La Tengo Hanukkah shows in 2001. Ira signed it, with some concern, after learning I’d attended the first seven. I made it to the first 20, back when they were at Maxwell’s in Hoboken. Best part of the holiday season.

Beyond breadth concerns, job creation concentrated in Health Care & Social Assistance poses two challenges: 1. HC&SA activity has nowhere near the multiplier effect of homebuilding, mfg or lending. 2. The functions added YTD pay 85% of the average job.

Ex-Health Care & Social Assistance, and Leisure & Hospitality, nonfarm payrolls would have shrunk by 21k YTD and 220k since May. And people say equity breadth is narrow. October and November numbers out Tuesday.

Slipped out to catch a 5:30 showing of the John Prine movie. Brought our daughter with me, too, in case genetics haven’t made her the most uncool kid in the 7th grade. I know I’m out of touch, but I haven’t felt this good since Willie’s set at Farm Aid.

Equity market concentration has gotten a lot of attention since FANMAG was a thing, but breadth in hiring is much narrower. Without Health Care & Social Assistance and Leisure & Hospitality, payrolls would have shrunk by 21k YTD and 220k since May.

Cap-weighted y/y EPS growth for the Bottom 20 SPX subindustries (-9%) is 20 ppt below the overall SPX (11%). It’s good $NVDA keeps knocking it out of the park b/c it’s getting less and less help from key segments of the other 493.

Highly cyclical and/or consumer-facing companies dominate the SPX’s 20 worst subindustries (YTD thru last Thursday). The forward-looking stock market must have some questions about the economy.

We interrupt our regularly scheduled market and economics programming to bring you the following update from Charlottesville. Wahoowa

@timhanso Better.

Decent.

What’s a bond vigilante to do? Continue biding their time. Choosing to slow federal revenues is structurally bond bearish, but bond-bullish cyclical labor market stasis will override it for now.