FactorDork

Look at the troughs on this chart: * 2000–2002 (post-tech bust) * 2008–2009 (financial crisis) * 2011 (GFC second bottom) * 2016 (global slowdown / China deceleration) * 2020 shock * Today All were the tail ends of late-cycle slowdowns right before small, value and cyclicals ripped.

@RMcdonnold @HML_Compounder @choffstein @pansareV Not exactly equity mean reversion, but close, AA has covered a few papers on time series reversal in trend-following strategies. I'm a believer although I haven't directly targeted a strategy that uses it. alphaarchitect.com/combining-reve…

Does anyone have any data on "mean reversion" in equities? $CTA for example has mean reversion incorporated as shown below I believe more in equity mean reversion than equity trend, similar to anti-volatility targeting @HML_Compounder @choffstein @pansareV @FactorDork

@todd_cfa @RyanPKirlin @MebFaber @BluesummersLLC @GMOInsights He can't answer (compliance!) but I will, QVAL/IVAL/AVUV/AVIV/AVDV all good choices.

@RyanPKirlin @MebFaber @BluesummersLLC @GMOInsights If imma allocate to this, which alpha architect ETF(s) deserve my due diligence?

The expensive stocks are really expensive, the cheap stocks are really cheap. via @GMOInsights

Chart shows cumulative performance (since ~2000) * SPYG (S&P 500 Growth) on top * SPYV (S&P 500 Value) below it Rising line → Growth outperforming Value Falling line → Value outperforming Growth Over ~25 years, Value has slightly outperformed Growth in absolute cumulative return (≈495% vs ≈438%). 2023-2025 Growth countertrend now seems to be breaking down. Value isn’t exciting, but it’s quietly doing what it always does: surviving cycles and compounding.

It’s a great day to be part of the SCV GANG 🗣️🔊

Our quarterly commentary for the Return Stacked® suite of ETFs is now available. returnstackedetfs.com/quarterly-comm…

Hadn't seen anyone else post it yet today... Great start to the year!

@egr_investor @avantisinvestor The launch of these products was what drove me into a 100% value portfolio finally (well, that and following @HML_Compounder). For better or for worse... 😅 Allocated to $AVUV in the first month after inception wondering if it'd gather AUM and now look at it...

Huge congrats to @avantisinvestor on hitting $100B AUM! 🚀 As a huge fan & early investor in $AVUV, $AVDV, $AVES & $AVGV, I'm thankful. When others gated funds behind advisors or high minimums, you created real competition to serve small factor investors & drive down costs. Well deserved! 👏

@egr_investor It's all true but for some reason I sleep like a baby in a generic hotel during a work trip with that crappy AC on. 🙂

This hits after taking a business trip last week 😅

@returnstacked Well deserved, congratulations! Great suite of products.

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"Mid caps."

@RMcdonnold @JeremyDSchwartz Seconded!

need an ex-US developed + gold stack @JeremyDSchwartz

need a gold + treasury $TLT stack @JeremyDSchwartz

YieldMax has 26 ETFs with 1 year returns through 7/31/25 ($15.5B AUM). Multiplying each ETF’s AUM by its trailing tax cost (reminder: driven by distributions, not returns) and you get a $4.6B run-rate tax bill. Forget DOGE… YieldMax is single handedly balancing the deficit.

@djwindle @PFOInvestor @HML_Compounder @grok @Andrew68508 "you simply take the dividends and do not sell anything" I thought you were trolling but it seems you truly haven't comprehended any of the responses from the multiple people trying to help you in this large thread. Sorry, you're beyond help. Have a nice day.

@FactorDork @PFOInvestor @HML_Compounder @grok @Andrew68508 So you're saying the following: - Portfolio 1 has a 10% drawdown and you simply take the dividends and do not sell anything. - Portfolio 2 has a 30% drawdown and you sell shares for income, You're saying that has the same effect on the portfolio?

In 2 Decades as a Financial Planner, I haven't seen a single annuity that didn't make me want to punch the person in the face that sold it to the client.... Not 1

@djwindle @PFOInvestor @HML_Compounder @grok @Andrew68508 It's not a "strawman" it's a simple mathematical fact. Not reinvesting a dividend is the same thing as selling shares, drawdown or not. You seem to be under the delusion that not changing the number of shares you own somehow "protects" you, which is obviously not how math works.

@PFOInvestor @HML_Compounder @FactorDork @grok @Andrew68508 No i get your strawman. I'm just tired of arguing with wall that just wants to keep repeating irrelevant things. Ya'll have a good day.

@djwindle @HML_Compounder @grok @Andrew68508 @djwindle you really should just re-read this thread and pay attention to what @HML_Compounder is saying, he's spent his time laying out a pretty clear and understandable gem of investing knowledge that you seem to be either just ignoring or incapable of understanding.

It's literally just a simple average dude of historical returns. Pretty fucking close to the ones you ran. Result is still the same. Trying to argue the math, doesn't apply in real life because Growth stocks, as you use, aren't equal and the end result of selling shares will not yield the same result as dividend payers not having to liqudiate. I've repeated this, over and over and over and over. You don't have to like it. But it is what it is. If all things are euql, returns, everything. You are 100% correct. But that is not how reality operates.

@PFOInvestor @HML_Compounder I wouldn't trade it, could go for 10 more years... (I really hope not)

@HML_Compounder Nice opportunity here for a trade to short growth and go long value.

2nd tweet here particularly interesting. Value priced near long-term mean while glamour is much more expensive than history.

@HML_Compounder @PodSaveAmerica On the positive side, maybe our international overweights will finally pay off over the next 10 to 15 years... 😅

@PodSaveAmerica Great, stuck with lunatic MAGA for the rest of my life...

There has to be a total mindset change in the Democratic party. When the war ends, we are not going back to the pre-October 7 status quo.

Our quarterly commentary for the Return Stacked® suite of ETFs is now available. returnstackedetfs.com/quarterly-comm…

$IWM +3.2% off the LoD