Dan of GTC Traders

If there is ONE thing I think new short-term traders should focus in on? You WILL NOT hear this from the "Combine-scammy-FURU-lets-talk-motivtion" #trading "educator" types. Got the idea to help new folks from my man @discoverytrader $STUDY the performnce grids of audtble firms

Ok ... question ... for those who are actual energy experts, and not those that like to play them on X So since the United States can't hope to fill that gap ... how does this improve United States Oil prices, since now we have a scenario where the structure of global trade drains U.S. inventories, which effectively sets up a 'structural arb' that will raise the price of WTI ?

BREAKING: European airports are facing 'systemic' jet fuel shortages 'within three weeks' if the Strait of Hormuz is not fully reopened, according to Financial Times report.

Everyone with a brain lekker knows you can have 15 Destroyers pass through the strait .... 4 VLCC's by morning ... But all Iran has to do is decide to make an example out of one poor General Cargo Coaster Vessel trying to make his way out on a scrappy spot rate ... and every insurer from here to Myanmar shuts the whole strait down

/CL to 110 Sunday night

“We are both clever and stupid in equal measure; capable of understanding the geometry of the universe and yet apparently incapable of managing our own small planet.” — Brian Cox

@RamyarAlizadeh1 @EconstratPB @TonerousHyus Uhm Negotiations just broke down .... no ships are moving .... and Iran has doubled down

@GtcTraders @EconstratPB @TonerousHyus And when the oil flows you will move goal post again to say iran is winning. 🤣

60% of Hispanic voters believe the Trump admin has been successful in Iran and won. 👊👊

@DoubleWideCap @Mr_Derivatives The man literally makes me look like the model of brevity

@Mr_Derivatives waiting for Ackman to break substack with one post that is a terrabyte.

(Un)popular Opinion: I wouldn’t be surprised to see more former hedgies take the Michael Burry route. Just start a Substack and sell trade alerts. Easier, stress free, less regulations. Yet still highly lucrative. Just chill and coast. Agree or agree to disagree?

I could get into the science of textual criticism, type and archtypes, paleo-semetic transcription techniques ... volumes of MMS Census data to the survival rates of classical secular works (which I also study, and are wonderful works) ... the almost negligible decay / replicative fade errors over eons of time. But that would require you have the education to follow along ... so ....

@GtcTraders @elonmusk Where's the proof that "God" said thus shit 🤣 Don't say a drugged out disciple had gotten told by God 🤣 a lot of addicts does the same shit. That book was written to enslave free minds.

True

Boom Game Theory 101 Iran knows You can traverse that strait all you want with Destroyers. You can say you will traverse it with 10 destroyers. But everyone with a brain knows ... we can make an example out of one poor VLCC just trying to earn it's keep one a crappy spot rate ... and it shuts the whole thing down ... Sad

@BlacklionCTA Anyone with a brain knows ... you dont ... touch ... the boats

No surprise at the outcome of Islamabad, only shocked it got here this fast with less theatrics. I think the USN reasserting our presence in the Straits matters more than negotiations in Pakistan.

@thisisatest0007 @TonerousHyus @EconstratPB Exactly. With the supply chain gap pushing inflation higher ... bare minimum to July. If the strait is not open in terms of ALL of those backed up VLCC's moving out ... everyone else is hostage. Ergo ... Iran is winning

@TonerousHyus @EconstratPB Is the SOH open?

That's literally the only question in my mind though. The hopium is strong and can lead to stupid March - June 2008 type rallies. That's the big unknown variable. Until oil flo ... Iran is winning

@TonerousHyus Bc they’re retards. Show me a strategic win. We’re negotiating and tryna trade horses. We’re not imposing terms. Bruh.

Hi. 30 Year vet, Institutional background, Quant Architecture and currently manage an SFO So ... Alloy ... What you are basically doing is sophistication gatekeeping. I know, I used to do it. Because to some extent ... some of what new people do with charts is falling into the trap of the cognitive bias of Apophenia. But you do it to everyone, and you end up being a dick. And what's more? You very much can end up being wrong. Having watched DWC for years ( if I'm not mistaken, he had a profile before this current one ) ... through my various X iterations? Apophenia is not what he's doing. Entry triggers figures about maybe ... 2% importance to a traders profitability. Maybe even less. We have one model / algo ... that literally gives NO thought to 'the best entrance'. It literally does enters blind. It's whole advantage is the risk model. What does matter ... is the risk profile risk model. You give me a technical overlay, or lines on a chart, a VWAP, or hell .. you give me a MAGNET and a plumb bob ... I can trade profitably ... so long as I can control the risk model. I once saw a 45 year trading veteran take any trade in terms of long short, that someone suggested to him, just to prove that point. They got to decide the market, and the direction. HE got to determine the risk model. And he consistently made money. Using charts is fine. Not using charts is fine. Using algos is fine. Using pure discretion is fine. Using phases of the moon is fine. All of it works. And none of it works. It just depends on the risk model. As you age, you find out you start picking on how someone decides to trade, and what works or doesn't work for them? You just end up looking like an ass /fin

@DoubleWideCap Whatever makes you feel better. 💐

Incoherent line drawing like this never ceases to amaze me. Absolutely random and posterior and you can tell is trying so hard to be an anchored VWAP or something. Favorite part though is the max boldness setting.

@moreproteinbars @_BlockTrader_ @686Prism @TimTheMM Always appreciate you sharing your thoughts Tina ....

There are hundreds of tankers with nothing to do, since 10%of the global crude supply is out of commission. They are heading to the US, as there is crude and products from the US going at favorable prices relative to Asia and Europe (inventories are high, especially in the Gulf coast). Once they start to offtake, the arb will start to close.

@TrumpDailyPosts Bruh gas is $5/gallon. Why are we exporting?

Arthur Burns on how subordinating the inflation mandate to the employment mandate and assuming 4% unemployment was consistent with price stability contributed to the inflation problems of the 1970s.

Yeup. I have attempted to test it's limits, by giving a full stylometry breakdown of my work. 24 lines of a prompt with my specific cadence markers, lexical density, average sentence length ... etc. No dice. It will make the attempt, but the output is absolutely nothing close to my style. At this point ... from what I have seen of AI's written output ... is that it might be used very, very dumb editorial assistant. And that's about it.

@GtcTraders I have tried to write prompts to bend ChatGPT to write in the style of some writer. It’s not working for me. I have not tried music generators but I suspect the experience is similar.

@bigcat55515310 @HFI_Research I ain't buying it and figure it was bologna research porn. If it were true, as soon as they turn their transponder back om, everyone from here to Mumbai would see it and know if thats what people were doing . "Story" had so much hair on it, it's insane

@HFI_Research Any thoughts on the citrini article? Basically sent a journalist to the straight and he proves visually more ships are crossing than can be tracked? So rate of closure not very high? Keep up great work

I have been in the weeds of oil market modeling for over 10 years. I thought it was a stupid skill to learn. What the fuck do you gain by learning how to model oil market balances? Well, it seems like it’s coming in a bit handy now. To the uninformed observer, the largest oil market deficits in history have only ever reached ~3 million b/d. Here’s a fun fact: Q4 2018 balances was widely considered to be one of the tightest quarters in history. What was the deficit? 1.6 million b/d. Yes, 1.6 million b/d. Oil markets have never had a deficit larger than 3 million b/d. In 2022? Markets started pricing in a structural 2 million b/d deficit, oil spiked, and equity markets sold off. Now? People are talking about sustained 5 million b/d deficit as somehow being manageable? No. That’s not how the oil market works. Because oil is traded on the margin, that last barrel would push prices to the extreme. We are eating into onshore oil inventories now, the market is still asleep.