I See U OSINT

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I See U OSINT

I See U OSINT

@ISeeUOSINT

Receipt-driven OSINT on sanctions loopholes, shadow fleets, chokepoints & systemic blind spots in global finance, energy & war economies. Data over narrative…

เข้าร่วม Aralık 2023
54 กำลังติดตาม316 ผู้ติดตาม
ทวีตที่ปักหมุด
I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
Most people track the headline. I track what moves underneath it. Ships rerouting before the announcement. Insurers pulling back before the strike. Shadow fleets absorbing the cargo before the sanctions register. The official story and the actual mechanics almost never run on the same clock. When pressure hits the system, the public narrative and the real flow diverge fast. That divergence shows up in AIS data, P&I filings, war-risk spreads, dark vessel behavior. The gap between what gets announced and what actually moves is where the signal is. I track primary documents, AIS patterns, P&I filings, war-risk spreads, sanctions adaptations, and dark fleet behavior. No claim without a receipt. No noise. By the time everyone agrees on the story, the mechanism ran three days ago. The reroute happened. The insurance moved. The cargo found a new flag. This page posts the mechanics before the consensus hardens. Receipts over narrative 🧾
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
@_WorldMonitor_ I’ve noticed a major throttle on No Limits super weird. But I also noticed I’m getting a lot less spam comments and spam likes from that account, so I wonder if they’re doing a bot and paid promo sweep.
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WorldMonitor
WorldMonitor@_WorldMonitor_·
Anyone else noticing posts are getting a lot fewer views right now? Did X update the algo, or is it just me? So many big accounts with hardly any views that usually get tons!
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
Home sales actually went up last month, not down. More houses are on the market than a year ago. First-time buyers are back in the mix at levels not seen in five years. Groceries are still going up but nowhere near the 2022 spike we’re talking normal increases now. Companies that had big debt coming due in 2026 refinanced early and pushed it out. The corporate debt crisis everyone kept warning about got quietly defused. The $9 trillion Treasury number you keep seeing in scary headlines is just the government doing what it always does rolling old debt into new debt, like renewing a mortgage. Unemployment is low. The economy is still growing. Recession odds are real but not dominant. The doom content is not lying about the data. It is just calling a hangover a funeral.
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NoLimit
NoLimit@NoLimitGains·
Nobody can sell their house. Nobody can afford to buy one. Retail can barely afford groceries. Companies can’t afford to refinance their debt at current rates. $9 trillion of US debt rolls over this year. But sure, we’re good.
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
The Iran story has split into two tracks. Public messaging says the missile and nuclear threat is over. Iran launched across the region on the same timeline Netanyahu made that claim. The IAEA still cannot fully verify the fate of Iran’s 60%-enriched stockpile. “Destroyed” is being used politically. “Verified” is still missing.
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
Windward and MarineTraffic show approved vessels routing tight inside Iranian territorial waters for clearance. Turkish ships cleared after Iranian port calls. China-linked hulls transiting in small numbers. Iran still pushing crude to China near pre-conflict pace. Tehran isn’t choking supply. They’re sorting customers.
I See U OSINT tweet media
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
Traffic through the strait is sub-10% of pre-conflict levels but it hasn’t stopped. China-linked hulls are transiting. Iran-acceptable cargo is moving. The US and six allies put out a joint condemnation this week covering mines, drones, and obstruction. That is not language governments use for a closed waterway. Tehran isn’t running a blockade. They’re running an access regime. Vessels that fit the approved profile cross. Vessels that don’t, don’t. Markets know how to price a blockade. There’s a number, you pay it, cargo moves. A chokepoint turned into a permissions regime doesn’t have a price. It has a politics.
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Javier Blas
Javier Blas@JavierBlas·
The US and its allies are making a concerted effort to de-escalate the oil/gas war, having witnessed that Iran was willing -- and able -- to climb the escalation ladder very quickly. To be seen whether Tehran plays ball. Whatever the case, the Strait of Hormuz remains closed.
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
Georgian petroleum exports jumped 3,300% in January 2026 to $56M, filed as domestic production. Georgia barely produces any oil. Kulevi’s new refinery took its first crude tanker in October 2025. At least 19 tankers with the hallmarks of Russia’s shadow fleet ran through Georgia’s Black Sea ports across 2024-2026: old ships, constantly changing flags, owners you can’t trace, transponders going dark, no legitimate insurance. The EU put Kulevi in the latest sanctions package. Then it got pulled March 10 after Georgia and its state energy partner made commitments. The label changed. The oil didn’t. Receipts over narrative
I See U OSINT tweet mediaI See U OSINT tweet mediaI See U OSINT tweet mediaI See U OSINT tweet media
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
Cash has outperformed equities in the first 60-90 days of every major geopolitical risk cycle since 1990. S&P is down 6% from February highs. 10-year yield elevated. P&I clubs are pulling war-risk coverage from Gulf lanes right now, not hypothetically. PCE is still sticky, so the Fed doesn’t cut into this. Sitting out is positioning. Every week you’re not down 2% is a week you’re buying the next entry cheaper. The Hormuz picture doesn’t clarify until the carrier group tempo does, and that’s not priced yet.
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NoLimit
NoLimit@NoLimitGains·
Everyone’s focused on what to buy tomorrow. Nobody talks about the power of sitting in cash and watching everything fall apart.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​ Sit on your hands, enjoy your life, come back when the time is right.
NoLimit@NoLimitGains

THIS IS IT. I’m officially 95% out of the market. S&P 500 price now: 6,983 I’ve been in this game for more than 20 years. Here’s why I decided to get out: First of all, didn’t sell my long term BTC stack I’ve been holding since 2013-2015, my metals and real estate. Does that mean the market will crash tomorrow? NO. ABSOLUTELY NOT. I’m not a day trader. But there’s a good chance we’re very close to a market top and could drop 15–20% from here. The smartest founders in history are all rushing to the exit at the same time. – SpaceX – OpenAI – Databricks – Anthropic They’re aggressively targeting 2026 IPOs with a combined $4T valuation. They aren’t selling because they need cash. They’re selling because they’ve identified the top. We’ve seen this exact setup twice before. The 2000 Dotcom crash and the 2021 SPAC mania. Insiders use the window to distribute shares at unsupportable valuations (100x revenue). The math ain’t mathing. Big Tech are burning a shit ton of money trying to chase the AI narrative. – $400B in AI Capex – Only ~$20B in revenue return To justify this spend, they need $2 Trillion in new revenue by 2030. That isn't an investment. That’s a bubble. And look who else is leaving. Warren Buffett is sitting on a $300B+ pile of cash. He’s been aggressively selling into this rally. He doesn’t want to buy the dip. He wants to survive the crash. Then there’s the 2026 debt wall. Zombie companies survived on 0% interest rates, but now the bill is due. They have to refinance BILLIONS this year at significantly higher rates. Most won't survive it. Let’s see how this plays out. Keep in mind: I called the last 3 major market top and bottom publicly. When I start buying again, I’ll say it here for everyone to see. Many people will regret not following me sooner.

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I See U OSINT รีทวีตแล้ว
I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
Thread Post 1. We are not losing this war on firepower. We are losing it on structure. That distinction matters more than anything else happening in the Gulf right now. The U.S. and its allies have overwhelming kinetic advantage. That is not the question. The question is whether military pressure translates into economic pressure on the right people. Hormuz is showing us the answer is no. The West breaks the formal system first. Iran survives in the informal one.
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
US ENERGY SECRETARY WRIGHT: TRUMP ADMINISTRATION HAS NO PLAN TO IMPLEMENT RESTRICTIONS ON OIL AND GAS EXPORTS
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
China’s LNG exposure is real but that’s the visible half. Kharg Island handles roughly 90% of Iranian crude flows and it wasn’t taken offline. China-linked barrels are still moving. War-risk insurance was pulled in early March, which priced most commercial operators out of the Gulf. LNG gets disrupted publicly. Oil keeps flowing through the shadow layer. China isn’t absorbing energy risk. It’s swapping one exposure for a cheaper one.
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
Every confirmed signal points toward restoring passage, not blocking it. Joint statements, not interdiction orders. Traffic is reduced, not zeroed. Iran is running selective access control. Washington isn’t layering a blockade on top of that. The blockade framing misattributes who holds the valve.
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
Sanctions have a price. Shadow fleet operators pay it. Discounted crude, war-risk premium, gray-zone P&I. Someone always calculates the spread and moves the cargo. Hormuz right now has no spread to calculate. Iran decides who transits. China and Turkey pass not because they outbid anyone. Tehran approved them. US sanctions price behavior. This filters identity. India buys sanctioned Russian crude through the shadow fleet every month. It’s not getting through Hormuz regardless of what premium it offers.
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Ab
Ab@Ab83126691·
@ISeeUOSINT @JavierBlas So they shouldnt try&impose cost to USa-Isreal-allies that nomb it? Why? How is this different to sanctions u impose? China, turkey, Pakistan,India,Bangladesh, other countries that spoke to iran, dint bomb it are all passing thru-isnt this how Us operates?! Cant take what u dish?
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
@zerohedge x.com/iseeuosint/sta…
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT

RT correspondent Steve Sweeney and cameraman Ali Rida hit by an Israeli airstrike near Al-Qasmiya Bridge in southern Lebanon today. Shrapnel, both of them. Sweeney took it in the arm. His own camera caught the blast. Less than 10 meters, mid-report. Sweeney is British, ex-Morning Star International Editor, now RT’s full-time Lebanon embed. CPGB-ML ties, People’s Assembly, family from the south by his own account. UK counter-terror pulled him at Heathrow last year coming back from Lebanon. He relocated rather than stop reporting. Zakharova is calling it deliberate press targeting. Israel hasn’t commented. Al-Qasmiya Bridge has been an active IDF strike corridor for weeks. RT embeds its correspondents inside Hezbollah’s operational perimeter and then calls it a war crime when Israeli airstrikes land close.

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zerohedge
zerohedge@zerohedge·
Goldman on BOJ: "We Continue to Expect Next Hike in July, Although Uncertainty on Timing Is High"
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
TRUMP: CHINA TRIP HAS BEEN RESET TRUMP: CHINA TRIP DELAYED A MONTH AND A HALF
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
@DeItaone CENTCOM spokesperson Capt. Tim Hawkins; the report says the pilot is stable and the cause is under investigation.
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*Walter Bloomberg
*Walter Bloomberg@DeItaone·
US F-35 DAMAGED BY SUSPECTED IRANIAN FIRE MAKES EMERGENCY LANDING, SOURCES SAY- CNN
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
Tehran MP Rafiei called it a “security fee” for passage. ISNA carried it, Reuters and WSJ picked it up, so the proposal is real. What doesn’t exist is a published rate, a named collection mechanism, a legal framework, or a vessel authorized to stop anything. Oman crude is already sitting at $167 against WTI at $97. The physical premium is already doing the threatening. A parliamentary bill isn’t a blockade so good luck with that.
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
Force majeure declarations are already stacking on Ras Laffan offtakes, AIS shows tanker reroutes live. Only real ceiling on the US exporter windfall is a Hormuz closure, but US LNG physically routes around that chokepoint anyway. QatarEnergy CEO admitting zero contingency for this scenario tells you how mispriced the risk was. Iran didn’t just hit Qatar. It handed US LNG a 3-5 year pricing monopoly.
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HFI Research
HFI Research@HFI_Research·
Good bye future LNG glut. US LNG exports will be at full throttle for the years ahead.
HFI Research tweet media
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
RT correspondent Steve Sweeney and cameraman Ali Rida hit by an Israeli airstrike near Al-Qasmiya Bridge today. Shrapnel, both of them. Sweeney’s own camera caught the blast less than 10 meters behind him. He’s British, ex-Morning Star, now RT’s full-time Lebanon embed with CPGB-ML ties and family from the south. Zakharova is already calling it deliberate press targeting. RT embeds inside Hezbollah’s operational perimeter and acts surprised when Israeli airstrikes land close.
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OSINTdefender
OSINTdefender@sentdefender·
According to QatarEnergy CEO Saad al-Kaabi, Iran’s attack on the Ras Laffan Indistrial City damaged facilities that produce 17% of Qatar’s LNG export capacity. The statement was made in an interview with Reuters. The damages are expected to take 2-3 years to repair fully.
OSINTdefender tweet media
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I See U OSINT
I See U OSINT@ISeeUOSINT·
RT correspondent Steve Sweeney and cameraman Ali Rida hit by an Israeli airstrike near Al-Qasmiya Bridge in southern Lebanon today. Shrapnel, both of them. Sweeney took it in the arm. His own camera caught the blast. Less than 10 meters, mid-report. Sweeney is British, ex-Morning Star International Editor, now RT’s full-time Lebanon embed. CPGB-ML ties, People’s Assembly, family from the south by his own account. UK counter-terror pulled him at Heathrow last year coming back from Lebanon. He relocated rather than stop reporting. Zakharova is calling it deliberate press targeting. Israel hasn’t commented. Al-Qasmiya Bridge has been an active IDF strike corridor for weeks. RT embeds its correspondents inside Hezbollah’s operational perimeter and then calls it a war crime when Israeli airstrikes land close.
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