JSleeprStats

Announcement ‼️ Sometime this week I will be starting a Substack that will be covering NBA, WNBA, and NFL to give you guys the best betting edge possible. - I want to find more ways to help yall. Similar to how I do breakdowns for games for NBA and NFL through film and data, I'll be posting there. - Minimum of 3-5 articles per week that should cover recaps, trends, game previews for all three sports. - Any edge I can find, we'll talk about it through the Substack. - Will try to have articles out each morning as I'll be putting a ton of time and effort into this. - Will always try to answer questions to the best of my abilities whenever you have them. Any other ideas you would like me to add to this to make the best experience, feel free to comment below and let me know!

Every now and then I scroll through on the sports betting timeline and the way people defend misleading/scammer tactics in this space is crazy. Nobody is saying a capper needs to win 80% of the time. Losing is part of betting. That’s not the issue. The issue is marketing yourself as a consistent winner when the actual results don’t match that. If someone has a 20% hit rate on the month and is down units but their timeline is full of graphics and tweets implying they’re profitable, that’s misleading. You can’t constantly say “can’t win them all” while also branding yourself as a proven long-term winner if the record doesn’t reflect that. Social media makes this easy to manipulate. People post their biggest wins, the timeline amplifies it, and it creates FOMO. New bettors see the wins and assume that’s the typical result. If you know exactly what you’re signing up for and still want to support someone, that’s your choice. But a lot of people are supporting or paying for something because they believe they’re buying a profitable product. There’s nothing wrong with selling picks. There is something wrong with selling the idea of consistent winning if the results don’t actually support that. Losing happens and part of gambling but misrepresenting the record is the problem. people calling these misleading cappers are asking for transparency, not perfect hit rates.

finishing 5/22 is diabolical 💀

I didn’t know Brandon Miller going on tour lol

@DavidEs13081647 @JSleeprStats Timestamps. Watch the video my man spent some good time on it

PrimeTime Parlay - SUPER BOWL EDITION🏈 @DoctorProfit and @JSleeprStats Crafted one last banger✅ Watch for full breakdown of the game below ⬇️ Parlay at the end as always (+ timestamps)!💰 Make sure to like + subscribe❤️ youtu.be/qyGIrYEkmCI

@MonotoneFootbal 🙏🏽🙏🏽

@JSleeprStats Great stuff

3-1 night ✅ but we starting off the month right, I mean how many ppl on Will Riley today!?

@DoctorProfit shit 7-0 lmao

@DoctorProfit Apparently you really cookin with that 5-0 day ✅🔥

Nice 4-0 in the Substack looking at the injury reports + data I post for the subscribers 🧹🧹🧹🧹

PrimeTime Parlays Conference Finals Slate x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

STEFON DIGGS DAY 🎉 Not only does he SOAR over his receiving Yards line in games where he sees 29%+ Cover-1 rate (and 20+ routes) But... Other similar receivers has dominated this category against this Broncos defense in the past Lock in the over 44.5 Receiving Yards at (-112) and a potential sprinkle on the ladder 🪜

CFB National Championship Full Preview 🏈🏆 Miami vs Indiana (7:30PM) Curt Cignetti and the Indiana Hoosiers travel to Miami, Florida, to take on Mario Cristobal and the Miami Hurricanes in the National Championship game. The Indiana Hoosiers are a 7.5-point favorite in this game, with the total set at 47.5. Cignetti is just one victory away from finishing what could be the greatest coaching season in college football history. Before Cignetti was hired last season, the Indiana Hoosiers held the lowest winning percentage in Big Ten history. Now let's talk about Mario Cristobal. Cristobal has transformed the Miami Hurricanes back into a powerhouse. The Hurricanes currently have the most dominant trench unit in all of college football. As a former offensive line coach, Mario Cristobal has done a fantastic job building the Hurricanes' offensive line since he became the head coach. Markell Bell and Francis Mauigoa have done an excellent job this season protecting Carson Beck. Beck has faced the least pressure of any quarterback in college football this season. Now Indiana's defensive line is legit. Indiana's defensive coordinator, Bryant Haines, effectively employs stunts and simulated pressures in his schemes. That's the reason why the Hoosiers defense finished first in defensive havoc this season. Carson Beck must deliver the best performance of his career if the Hurricanes hope to secure a victory in this game. Now let's talk about some matchups in this game. Will Miami's defensive line be able to throw off Fernando Mendoza's rhythm in this game? Can Miami's offense run the football in this game? How do the Hurricanes pull off the upset in this game? This is the last college football game of the 2025 season, so let’s dive into the Xs and Os one final time. Let's start off with the Hoosiers' passing game. Fernando Mendoza is coming off winning a Heisman trophy this season. Mendoza led a Hoosiers passing game that was among the best in college football. The Hoosiers' passing offense this season ranks 3rd in success rate and 4th in EPA. Now the Hurricanes' coverage unit has been good this season. The Hurricanes coverage unit this season ranks 14th in coverage grading and 14th in EPA allowed. However, I do expect Fernando Mendoza to thrive in this matchup. The Hurricanes' defense does have some vulnerabilities in their secondary. Miami is going to be without their starting cornerback Xavier Lucas in the 1H because of a targeting call in the Ole Miss game. Additionally, starting cornerback OJ Frederique Jr. was injured in the Ole Miss game but is expected to be ready for this matchup. In order for Corey Hetherman's defense to have success in this game, they have to generate pressure on Fernando Mendoza. Now Miami's pass rush was dominant this season. Both Akheem Mesidor and Reuben Bain Jr. wreaked havoc on opposing offenses. According to PFF, Fernando Mendoza was the highest-graded quarterback when facing pressure this season. Fernando Mendoza Stats Under Pressure This Season: 8.4% BTTT 7.8 YPA 105.6 NFL Passer Rating 11.8 ADOT The Hoosiers offensive line finished 18th in pass blocking grading this season. Look for Akheem Mesidor to find success vs. Indiana RT Khalil Benson in this game. Pat Coogan should neutralize the Hurricanes' interior pass rush, and Carter Smith is one of the best offensive tackles in all of college football. Now let's dive into the Hurricanes' coverage tendencies. Corey Hetherman's defense from a coverage perspective this season primarily relied on Cover 3. Fernando Mendoza vs. Cover 3 this season: 74% completion rate 101.1 passer rating 62.2% positive play rate Indiana Receivers vs. Cover 3 this season: Elijah Sarratt 3YPRR|0.32TPRR Omar Cooper Jr. 2.2YPRR|0.13TPRR Charlie Becker 5.2YPRR|0.3TPRR EJ Williams 2.3YPRR|0.3TPRR Roman Hemby 1.5YPRR|0.11TPRR Riley Nowakowski 1.6YPRR|0.22TPRR Fernando Mendoza is going to have a decent amount of success vs. this Hurricanes passing defense. Miami's coverage unit also ranks 69th in contested catch rate. Now let's talk about the Hoosiers' run game. Indiana should be able to run the football in this game. Indiana's Rush Offense Stats This Season: 10th in Success Rate 32nd in EPA 7th in Line Yards 11th in Rush PPA 10th in stuff rate allowed Now the Hurricanes rush defense was pretty good this season. Miami’s Rush Defense Stats This Season: 8th in Success Rate 79th in EPA Allowed 99th in rush explosives allowed 33rd in Early Down EPA/Play 22nd in Stuff Rate 10th in Line Yards Miami's rush defense is heavily reliant on the presence of Ahmad Moten. When Moten is on the field, the Hurricanes' rush defense is excellent from a success rate standpoint. When Moten got injured in the Ole Miss game, Kewan Lacy broke off a 73-yard run. However, Hetherman did say Moten should be healthy for this game. If Moten gets hurt again in this game, look for Roman Hemby to have some success running the football. Roman Hemby averaged 3.45 yards after first contact this season. Now let's dive into the Hoosiers' rush concepts. This season, the Hoosiers' rushing attack has mainly focused on zone read and man-blocking concepts. Miami's defense is excellent at defending man-blocking concepts, but the Hurricanes struggle to defend inside zone. Kaelon Black mostly runs man gap concepts, and Roman Hemby runs zone read. Roman Hemby is the running back to target in this Hoosiers backfield. Additionally, the Hoosiers offense finished 1st in quality drives and in finishing drives this season. Look for Mike Shanahan's offense to rely on methodical drives in this game. Now let's talk about the Hurricanes' passing offense. Miami is going to struggle to throw the football in this game. Carson Beck has really struggled under pressure this season. Carson Beck's Stats Under Pressure This Season: 6.5% TWP 59.6% adjusted completion rate 66 NFL Passer Rating 18.1% P2S Carson Beck Stats When Kept Clean This Season: 0.9% TWP 114.6 NFL Passer Rating 82.4% adjusted completion rate 9 Big Time Throws I expect Bryant Haines to unleash a heavy dose of simulated pressures in this game. Now, if Miami's offensive line is able to hold up in pass protection, the Hurricanes are going to be able to move the football in this game. Indiana's defense does rank 62nd in contested catch rate, so don't be shocked if you see Carson Beck hit an explosive play or 2 in this game. Now let's talk about the Hoosiers' coverage tendencies. This season, the Hoosiers' defense has primarily relied on Cover 3 and Cover 2 from a coverage perspective. Carson Beck vs. Cover 3 and Cover 2 this season: 57.9% Positive Play Rate 4.7% Int % 70.9% Completion Rate 90.6 Passer Rating 71.8% On-Target Rate Miami Receivers vs. Cover 3 and Cover 2 this season: Cj Daniels 0.23TPRR|2.2YPRR Malachi Toney 0.2TPRR|1.7YPRR Mark Fletcher Jr. 0.24TPRR|1.8YPRR Joshua Moore 0.22TPRR|2.3YPRR Joshisa Tradar 0.19TPRR|2YPRR Alex Bauman 0.12TPRR|0.9YPRR Keelan Marion 0.23TPRR|3YPRR Malachi Toney led CFB in YAC this season. Indiana's defense ranks 5th in tackling grading and 18th in broken tackles allowed. I don't expect much YAC from the Hurricanes offense in this matchup. Bryant Haines is going to try to limit Toney's production in this game. Indiana ran zone coverage at the highest rate in CFB this season. (88% Rate) The matchup to watch on this side of the football is D'Angelo Ponds vs. Keelan Marion. Marion is going to need to have a big game if the Hurricanes want to pull off this upset. Now let's talk about the Hurricanes' rushing attack. The Hoosiers' rush defense this season was among the best in college football. Indiana's Rush Defense Stats This Season 3rd in Success Rate 3rd in Rush PPA 3rd in Stuff Rate 4th in Line Yards 1st in Rush Rate % allowed Miami's Rushing Offense Stats This Season: 129th in creating rush explosives 100th in offensive rushing success rate 98th in EPA/Rush 78th in Rush PPA 29th in Line Yards With the way Indiana stunts their defensive line, Mark Fletcher is going to have to battle through a ton of contact in this game. Mark Fletcher is averaging 3.7 yards after first contact this season with 55 missed forced tackles. Now Miami's offensive line has a huge weight advantage over Indiana's defensive line. Miami's O-line Average Weight - 331 lbs. Indiana D-Line Average Weight - 278 lbs. 53 lb difference Even with the weight advantage in this game, I still expect Indiana's defense to be able to stop the run in this matchup. Now let's dive into the Hurricanes' rush concepts. Miami's offense, from a rush concept perspective, this season primarily relied on inside zone and man gap concepts. The Hoosiers' defense this season owns a min 58% success rate vs both inside zone and man gap concepts. I expect the Hurricanes offense to have no success running the football in this game. Shane Dawson is going to try to run the football in this game, but the Hurricanes are going to have limited success in doing so. Additional Notes 🗒️ Both Indiana and Miami play at a bottom 10 pace. This game is technically a home game for Miami. (Homefield is worth about 1.5 points in this matchup.) Indiana is the best Middle 8 team in the country. Massive coaching advantage for Indiana Special teams advantage goes to Indiana. Prediction: Curt Cignetti is currently the best head coach in college football. With Fernando Mendoza as his quarterback, Cignetti is not going to lose this football game. Miami is not going to be able to run the football this game, therefore leading to Carson Beck being in long standard downs. The only path to victory for the Hurricanes in this game revolves around getting pressure on Fernando Mendoza. If Miami's defense is able to hold the Hoosiers' offense to under 17 points, the Hurricanes have a shot to win this football game. Both Rueben Bain Jr. and Akheem Mesidor have to show up in this game. But if Indiana's offensive line holds up in pass protection, as I expect it to, Indiana should win this football game by over a touchdown. The Hoosiers will win their first-ever National Championship tonight. Score Prediction Indiana: 30 Miami: 17 My Power Ratings Have this game at Indiana -8.6, not including the home-field advantage for the Hurricanes. So my numbers would make this game Indiana -7.1, with the Hurricanes' home-field advantage. I see no value in the spread currently. Leans 🏈 Indiana in an MLP. (If this number got down to -7 at -115 or better, then I'd take the spread.) But I like Indiana as a moneyline parlay piece currently. Carson Beck Passing Attempt Props if you can get 29.5 or better. (Small Lean) Mark Fletcher Under Rushing Props (Small Lean) Roman Hemby Over Rushing Props (Small Lean) Fernando Mendoza Under Rushing Props (Small Lean) Elijah Sarratt Receiving Props (Small Lean) Mark Fletcher Jr. or Joshisa Tradar Receptions Props (Small Lean) Total Wise I Lean 1Q or 1H under (but I'd pass on a total in this game). I appreciate the support on my previews as always. I'll see y'all boys back in August for the 2026 CFB season. What a journey this season was. I hope everyone has a blessed day, and cheers to a great football game tonight. ❤️❤️🐨🏈

When the website says it’s Kyren Williams day, that means it’s Kyren Williams day✅

6 Targets… ❌

I’m dead again

I’m dead inside after that incompletion

@FreeEskoo with everyone out i definitely agree

@JSleeprStats he cashes tonight for sure 15.5 pr

Johnny Furphy Over 12.5 Pts+Reb (-118)❌ 10 PR at the half then just 1 the entire 2H.

The Best Divisional Round Parlays🏈 (1) Touchdown Parlay (1) BUF/DEN Parlay (1) SEA/SF Parlay Crafted with @JSleeprStats, @MonotoneFootbal and @DoctorProfit on stream today! Auto-Fill in the 🧵

Brandin Cooks Over 28.5 Receiving Yards (-115 DK) Cooks is going to be an important piece today because the Bills are very short handed right now at receiver with no Tyrell Shavers and Gabe Davis who both tore their ACL during the Wild Card and now they are also without Joshua Palmer. Curtis Samuel was activated off the injury reserve a few days ago but he is more so just a gadget player with very low aDOT usage. Mecole Hardman was activated from the practice squad as well. Looking at today’s matchup against the Broncos, I am expecting Vance Joseph to blitz here as that’s what he’s done the last few season’s against everyone, and if Josh Allen is one of the best against the blitz, then last week should be a good indicator of Cooks potentially seeing a decent target share here because on 12 pass plays that were blitzed last week, Cooks ran a route on 5 of them and was targeted on 3 of those blitzes, which turned into 2 receptions for 46 yards. He had a 30% first read rate vs the blitz, and Shakir only had 1 more blitz target than him. He was second for the receivers in route share last week and had a similar route share in Week 17 when Palmer, Shavers and Davis were all available. In that Week 17 game he had 5 targets for 101 yards with a 20% 1st read rate. If we look at Week 17 and Wild Card round combined, its only him and Shakir with double digit targets and above 20% first read rate on the team. If someone is going to get the Surtain matchup (most likely Surtain stays on one side of the field here without a legit WR1 matchup), its most likely going to be Shakir which means Brandin Cooks needs to get involved here.