Jake
385 posts


@DonnyRoss1872 How do you manage to not pull it with a center shafted putter? I could never get the hang of it
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GOLDMAN SEES SPACEX AI REVENUE EXPLODING TO $322B BY 2030
Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX AI revenue rising from $3.2B in 2025 to $322B by 2030, a ~100x increase, forming the core justification for its $1.78T IPO valuation. Total revenue is forecast to reach $474B, with Starlink at $144B and rockets at $8.3B.
AI segment growth is tied to aggressive market assumptions despite current losses and execution concerns around xAI. Overall EBITDA is seen surging to $352B by 2030.
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@Polymarket “Stocks will go down if everyone sells all their stocks all at once” wow! I’m not hating on ray dalio but he’s been a doomer for the past year it seems, while Bridgewater owns substantial AI-exposed stocks.
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@WOLF_Financial Ray dalio has officially called 20 of the last 1 recessions and bubble bursts!
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RAY DALIO JUST SAID HE THINKS THE AI BUBBLE IS GOING TO POP
On Bloomberg, he laid out exactly when, why, and how he sees it happening.
He also compared the current market to two specific years:
"We are right now rising closer to, not at, the same level in 2000 and the same level in 1929, a specific level where you say, oh no, here's the one that we really need to worry about."
On all tech revolutions:
"All great technology changes produce bubbles. And the reason they produce bubbles is because nobody can get it exactly right."
On the mechanism that pops bubbles:
"There's a bubble, and then there's the pricking of the bubble. The pricking of the bubble happens when there's a need for wealth to be sold to get the money."
On the wealth gap that comes with it:
"A very small percentage of the population is going to do unbelievably and a lot of people won't."
On a political solution:
"I'm not optimistic on us working together to solve."
He says the technology is real. The prices and the debt are the problem.
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Jake รีทวีตแล้ว
Jake รีทวีตแล้ว

Congratulations Princeton! Effort, execution, intensity, teamwork. Championship lacrosse fun to watch.
Princeton Men's Lacrosse@TigerLacrosse
FINAL: Princeton 16, Notre Dame 9 The Tigers played like a champion today and captured their SEVENTH @NCAALAX championship in program history!
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Jake รีทวีตแล้ว
Jake รีทวีตแล้ว

$MELI's CFO just brought even more clarity to the Q1 results on the investor relations podcast. This team is so honest and upfront about what they are doing. Really don't know any other team like them.
The market is likely worried over a drop in profit margins for the consumer credit business in Brazil for $MELI. To some this looks like a warning sign of bad debt. Mercado Libre is experiencing accounting effects from strategic growth. They accelerated loan originations by 25% QoQ in the first quarter. Accounting rules require them to record all estimated future losses on day one before the revenue arrives. They also extended loan terms from 5 to 8 months for their best borrowers. This is just for the consumer loans. This has nothing to do with the credit cards. They also lowered interest rates to activate safe users who had never used their credit lines. The actual bad debt levels, or non-performing loans, remain stable. The margin compression is a temporary accounting reality of rapid growth, not a fundamental credit problem. The key message from the perspectives is that MELI is not seeking out riskier folks to offer lower spreads. They are reaching out to folks they deemed worthy of credit in the past and did not bite. The lower spreads along with the high duration are there to entice those that did not bite in the past.
Investors often worry when a company lowers prices or gives away shipping. Mercado Libre lowered its free shipping minimum from 79 reais to 19 reais last year in Brazil. On the surface, this looks like a direct hit to profit margins. Instead, it created immense scale. The growth rate of items sold jumped from 26% to 56%. Because the company is shipping significantly more items, their cost to ship each individual unit dropped by 17%. The profitability of cheaper items actually improved. The company traded a small amount of short-term margin for massive volume, which permanently lowered their fixed fulfillment costs per item.
Traditional banks in Argentina are seeing high default rates. Mercado Libre is seeing the exact opposite. Their non-performing loans in Argentina are stable YoY and improved in the first quarter during a time of wide-spread credit stress. Their NIMAL improved by 6%. This happens because users treat Mercado Pago as their primary financial tool. People protect their Mercado Libre credit line and prioritize paying it back over other debts. The company also purposely slowed down loan growth in Argentina to 13% to maintain this high portfolio quality. They demonstrate a structural collection advantage over traditional banks in difficult macroeconomic environments.
MELI is also spending heavily to issue new credit cards in Brazil, Mexico, and Argentina. The market often views credit card expansion as an expensive, high-risk customer acquisition cost. But folks miss that it is an ecosystem multiplier. The oldest groups of credit card users in Brazil are already profitable. The credit card users in Mexico are performing even better than Brazil after two years! Once a user gets a Mercado Pago credit card, they buy more items on the e-commerce marketplace. They also use more fintech products. The initial investment to issue the card creates a much more permanent, highly engaged user across both the commerce and financial halves of the business.
Martin also confirmed that both the cross-border business and the 1P operations are currently unprofitable and acting as a drag on overall profit margins. The market may view these depressed margins as a permanent structural flaw or a sign of inefficiency. However, he noted they are seeing clear progress and explicitly stated both segments will eventually become profitable. As the 1P and cross-border divisions continue to scale and cross their break-even points, they will transition from actively hurting margins to potentially expanding them, creating a built-in catalyst for future profitability without requiring broader cost-cutting measures. The other aspect is that as cross-border operations and 1P operations scale they will have a very similar multiplier effect like the credit cards. In fact, they could likely remain a loss-leader forever and probably still have a net-positive effect on the entire ecosystem. That is largely MELI's biggest structural strength. It is optimizing the ecosystem rather than any particular segment of operations.
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Jake รีทวีตแล้ว

@StockSavvyShay Does this fix the supply shortage problem, though? If anything, this will only prolong it. More compute in less square footage and less power requirement likely means more demand for compute, which is currently supply constrained.
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Jake รีทวีตแล้ว
Jake รีทวีตแล้ว
Jake รีทวีตแล้ว
Jake รีทวีตแล้ว
Jake รีทวีตแล้ว
Jake รีทวีตแล้ว























