Le Macro Research

bitcoin:native When could we see the next Bitcoin cycle top? One pattern I am tracking: In previous Bitcoin cycles, the major expansion phase started when the monthly Ichimoku cloud turned green. The interesting part is that the cloud started turning green around the cycle bottom area. From there, Bitcoin continued to move higher and higher until the cycle top. 2018 bottom → 2021 cycle top: around 790 days 2022 bottom → 2025 cycle top area: around 793 days If history repeats in a similar way, and the current cycle bottom is around February 2026, then a 790–793 day expansion window would point to around April 2028 as a possible cycle top window. Of course, price will fluctuate along the way. There will be corrections, fear, volatility, and bearish sentiment. But based on this framework, the bigger message is simple: The bottom may already be in, and the main expansion phase may still be ahead. This is only a cycle framework I am tracking. Market observation only. Not financial advice.

- Bank of France Governor Villeroy de Galhau said the ECB will do “what is necessary” to bring inflation back to the 2% target. - The key concern is that an energy-price shock could become a broader inflation problem through wages, expectations, and second-round effects.

ECB turning hawkish again is not great for crypto short term. Higher inflation → higher rate-hike risk → stronger euro yields → less liquidity for risk assets. Crypto usually loves easy money, not tighter policy. So if oil shock keeps inflation high, BTC/altcoins may face pressure before the market prices in rate cuts again. Markets now expect the ECB may raise rates again in June at 58% in Kalshi. Source: cnbc.com/2026/05/26/ecb… $SPY $BTC $DOGE $NEAR $ZEC $PYTH $OTHERS

@LeMacroCap shoud lock in some profit when we can!

near:native daily update OBV and CVD are still strong. However, the first signs of short-term profit-taking are starting to appear. CVD has printed some red near the top, and RSI is very hot around 87. That does not mean the trend is over, but it does mean the move is no longer early. If you want to lock in some profit after this strong move, this is a reasonable area to consider it. For me, the key level is still around $3.03. - Break and hold above it = stronger continuation. - Reject there with falling CVD/OBV = pullback risk increases. Market observation only. Not financial advice. Disclosure: I may hold near:native.

@therollupco @ilblackdragon @NEARProtocol The reason why I am bullish at near:native is here: x.com/LeMacroResearc…

Andy asked why wouldn't AI agents create their own currency? An AI-generated unit of account all the LLMs agree on? @ilblackdragon, Co-Founder of @NEARProtocol: "They can create tokens. But agents need reputation and reputation needs history. You can't manufacture that." "You still need to pay for compute. That maps to energy. Those economic pieces need to map into something people value. Existing infrastructure already has ins and outs into the real world. That matters."

This is Le Macro. I hold a PhD in Economics from a European university. I have taught economics and finance for many years and have been actively involved in cryptocurrency markets since 2019. Over time, I’ve noticed that discussions on X often become overly aggressive, with many accounts posting strong opinions without supporting data or evidence. First and foremost: I am not a financial advisor. No one can predict the future with certainty. Anyone who claims they know exactly where prices are heading is either misleading you or lacks professionalism. We cannot know the future, but we can learn from the past. I analyze historical data, apply economic principles I’ve studied and taught, and share my reasoned outlook. While many of my predictions will inevitably be wrong, I strive for intellectual honesty and data-driven analysis. That said, I got lucky with a couple of calls — I was publicly bullish on ethereum:0x163f8c2467924be0ae7b5347228cabf260318753 at $0.24 and near:native at $1.54. I share these not to brag, but to show that patient, fundamentals-based analysis can sometimes work. I post my views publicly and manage my own capital accordingly. You should always do your own research and manage yours.

@charlesnwawo @LeMacroCap Thanks sir!

@LeMacroCap That's nice

I’m bullish on $NEAR here at $1.528. To me, it’s no longer just another L1 — it’s positioning around AI agents, intents, and chain abstraction. Price is still far below ATH, while the AI-agent narrative feels early. If agents need wallets, execution, and cross-chain coordination, NEAR could become very relevant. Not financial advice.

@CryptoMichNL You shouldn't sell near:native at 2.2. too early I think, but that's your money, you do your own risk reward. x.com/LeMacroCap/sta…

I've sold 30% of my $NEAR at $2.20, but that doesn't change my thesis surrounding the protocol. I do believe that this can easily go to $10-20 in a strong cycle. Perhaps even higher, as during this stage it's hard to imagine whether the markets are likely to go that high. Other than that, it doesn't mean that I need to hold the position until infinity. My goal is to trade the portfolio well and to cover my risk when assets go up. Technically said: that means that I need to reduce my portfolio variance in order to be able to have a consistent upwards grind of the portfolio. That also means that I'll be looking to be selling all my #crypto at some point in time and essentially trade other assets if I don't see any possible trade within the crypto markets or whether I see an opportunity or not. What's the gameplan for NEAR? - I've sold 30% at $2.20 and I've not reallocated everything into other assets, meaning that I have free cash to use back into the position. Buying back: - The lower the better, which means, if this comes back to $1.60-1.80, I'm very happily buying back in. Technically speaking, anything <$1.80 is where I find myself potentially interested to be allocating back into it if the markets are favouring that to me. If not, then that's fine too. Selling more: - Essentially I think that we've seen the high for now, especially since the sentiment was reaching for euphoria over the past few days. I assume we'll see some more consolidations taking place and then we might be ready for another run in 2-4 weeks. If that goes to $2.50-2.70, I'll be trimming off again and basically will do the same at $3.00-3.25. Probably will be selling more than half of the position and adding more towards cash, but that depends on the market structure at that point in time. If you do enjoy my portfolio updates, let me know in the comments what you'd like to see and hit the like button + bookmark the posts. Helps me a lot!

@LeMacroCap Zashi wallet, the Zcash-focused mobile wallet has integrated NEAR Intents for cross-chain privacy flows. - NEAR Intents handles the cross-chain execution. - Zashi handles the Zcash privacy layer. That makes $NEAR and $ZEC complementary infrastructure.

2. $NEAR supports $ZEC through NEAR Intents. The key point: NEAR is not replacing Zcash. It improves access to ZEC through cross-chain swaps and routing. $NEAR = execution / intents layer $ZEC = privacy / encrypted money layer That makes the narratives complementary, not competitors. If Zcash gains momentum because of the privacy narrative, NEAR could benefit indirectly if more ZEC-related activity flows through NEAR Intents. Market observation only. Not financial advice.

I (@LeMacroCap) was bullish on near:native around $1.50, before the recent move. Here is my deeper thesis: NEAR is no longer only a “cheap L1” story. The real thesis is AI + chain abstraction + scalable execution. Bull case: - Dynamic resharding expected in June - NEAR Intents growing as cross-chain execution infrastructure - AI-agent narrative - Lower inflation / improved tokenomics - Institutional access via NEAR staking ETP - Technical breakout momentum Bear case: - After a strong pump, part of the good news may already be priced in - A pullback or retest would be normal - The long-term thesis still needs real users, fees, and liquidity growth For me, near:native is fundamentally interesting, but I would not chase blindly after a big green candle. I want to see the breakout hold or a clean retest. Market observation only. Not financial advice.

@LeMacroCap - $NEAR Halving upgrade (completed in late 2025): Reduced maximum annual inflation from 5% to 2.5% - Supply is fully vested/unlocked (no more major unlock overhang)

1. near:native tokenomics look better than before. The supply is now largely de-risked, inflation has been reduced, and the thesis is no longer mainly about unlocks. The key question now is whether NEAR can turn its AI + chain abstraction narrative into real usage, fees, and long-term demand.

5. Conclusion: $NEAR is becoming more interesting again. The bull case is not only price action. It is supported by AI + chain abstraction, NEAR Intents, improved tokenomics, ZEC routing, and rising TVL. But after a strong move, I don’t want to chase blindly. For me, the key is whether TVL growth, ecosystem activity, and the breakout can continue. Bullish thesis: improving. Risk management: still necessary. This is for educational purposes only, not financial advice, and not a recommendation to buy or sell.

4. NEAR’s AI-agent thesis is connected to its original Open Web vision. NEAR was not created only as another L1. - Its original purpose was to build infrastructure for the Open Web: scalable, low-cost, user-owned applications that are not fully controlled by centralized platforms. Today, that thesis is evolving. - If AI agents become active users of the web — searching, paying, swapping, booking, and interacting across apps — they need execution rails. - That is where NEAR’s Open Web vision connects with chain abstraction, NEAR Intents, and AI-agent execution. In simple words: Original $NEAR thesis = Open Web infrastructure Current $NEAR thesis = Open Web + AI agents + intents

3. near:native TVL is rising again. Data from DeFiLlama show that near:native TVL has started to recover after a long downtrend. The last time NEAR TVL expanded strongly, price moved from around $0.96 in October 2023 to above $8.8 in March 2024 — roughly a 9x move in about 5 months during the late bear / early recovery phase. This does not mean the same move must repeat, but it shows one important thing: - When liquidity returns to the NEAR ecosystem, price often starts to react. For me, rising TVL supports the bull case, but I still want to see whether this growth is sustainable. Market observation only. Not financial advice.