Levi 🧢

🧵 After first learning about modern portfolio theory and construction, I settled on the typical Boglehead Three-Fund Portfolio: Total US Stock, Total International Stock, Aggregate US Bonds. Adjust stock/bond ratio to match risk. Here are my "improvements" so far:

let the doctor cook

Seahawks with a Clyde Edwards-Helaire memorial pick to wrap up Night 1

Biggest "reach" in the first round according to the consensus big board: Malachi Lawrence By consensus mock drafts: Caleb Banks Biggest "steal" by both metrics: Keldric Faulk

Here is where each of tonight's 1st round picks sat on @ArifHasanNFL's consensus big board at the time they were drafted. The grey line indicates the average "best available" rank from previous drafts.

I wonder which one is his agent

@Chiefs247365 And what comes out of the organizations themselves might be even worse (smoke and mirrors, saying a whole lot to say absolutely nothing.) Although there are some guys, like Spags, whom I generally tend to take at their word.

Listening to Chiefs coverage 24/7 is what I do (I’m on the road 6 hours on many days). Even best of them are way off base. We listen to all that & imagine those guys are “the authority” on what the Chiefs should do. I fall victim to it. But that’s exactly backwards.

At the time of pick No. 6, there was a 90% chance Mansoor Delane would make it to pick No. 9, per the Draft Day Predictor. Even if that number is a little high, that's the hidden cost of trade-ups: there's a substantial chance the Chiefs gave up a 3 and a 5 for nothing!

This will make a fine addition to my collection

@TrumanChief @go_saleaumua Dave will whip him into shape!

@go_saleaumua Yeah. Hope Merritt can work some magic. Pretty narrow path for Elam to work out since he’s probably not playing special teams. He’s either a starting CB or is going to have a hard time dressing for games.

It's been a minute, but the details on the Chiefs' contract with CB Kaiir Elam are finally available. Minimum base salary of $1.215 million (with $500K guaranteed). $35K per game active roster bonus. $1.775 million cap hit. A bit better than I expected him to get in April

@SamMonsonNFL Applies even moreso to announcers who *guess* what the penalty will be WHEN THE REFS ARE GOING TO ANNOUNCE THE *ACTUAL* CALL IN TWO SECONDS

I've never really understood why journalism industrialized breaking news 2 mins before it's coming out anyway. Like, break the news that's NOT coming out at all, don't give me a 120-second heads up on something we've already got covered.

@JonLuskin And Growth is very likely to be that lifetime underperformer 😆

When deciding whether small-cap value is right for you, consider not the possibility of future higher returns, but rather the possibility that you'll have a lifetime portfolio underperformer.

Glad this study was funded. Great work.

Made an impact both on the field and off of it. Can't wait to see your name in our Ring of Honor, DJ 🫡

@MySportsUpdate @KCStar I sign in for the first time in a couple months and see this junk. C'mon, Chiefs; get your act together.

#Chiefs DBs coach Dave Merritt, one of the best in the NFL, was arrested Wednesday night and charged with misdemeanor domestic battery, per @KCStar. He’s due in court today. The team is aware and have no comment. More: kansascity.com/sports/nfl/kan…

I really should report it. If I see them again, it definitely will be.

Was looking out at a pond a couple minutes then heard a guy yelling behind me. I didn't think anything until hearing a growl...a pit bull literally wearing a "service animal" vest charged me. Thankfully didn't have to bring out my knife but was assured "he is usually nice" 🙃

@mylattice24 @PeterMallouk Counties? Preposterous. We need neighborhood-level!

@PeterMallouk Peter, you are being too general. Drill down to individual counties and tell us what you see. Much of it is currency, and the rest is a handful of large companies in Japan, Korea, Taiwan and even in Europe. Be more specific.

Over the past 14 months, International stocks have outperformed US stocks by 27%, the widest margin since 1993-94. But zoom out. On a rolling 5-year basis, US stocks have outperformed for 15 years running. This is by far the longest stretch of US outperformance in history.

@michaelreynolds "Reality: Many SRI funds have outperformed traditional indexes over the past decade." Explanation: Likely due to these funds being overweight large-cap US growth. Sorry, I don't buy the outperformance salespoint.

Socially responsible investing is often misunderstood. Let's clear the air. 🚫 Myth: It's just a feel-good strategy that sacrifices returns. ✅ Reality: Many SRI funds have outperformed traditional indexes over the past decade. 🚫 Myth: It's only about excluding 'sin' stocks. ✅ Reality: Modern SRI focuses on positive impact and engagement with companies to drive change. 🚫 Myth: It's a niche strategy for a small subset of investors. ✅ Reality: SRI now accounts for over $30 trillion in assets under management globally. 🚫 Myth: It's too complex for the average investor. ✅ Reality: There are now numerous accessible SRI options, from ETFs to robo-advisors. The biggest misconception? That values and value are mutually exclusive. In today's world, they're increasingly intertwined. Socially responsible investing isn't just about doing good. It's about recognizing how environmental, social, and governance factors impact long-term financial performance. It's time we stop underestimating the power of aligning investments with values.

@charlesharriso5 @Fwd_Party

Interestingly, Republicans are mad at former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard because he's running as an independent candidate for Indiana Secretary of State. This is what happened to me in 2015: Democrats were upset with me when I almost ran for mayor of Indianapolis as an independent. They argued that I would draw too many Democratic votes and let a Republican win the mayor's race. Both parties tend to ignore the dissatisfaction many of us feel about the current direction of our party. There are plenty of centrists and moderates in both the Democratic and Republican parties who are uncomfortable with their extreme policies or the perception that an elected official is corrupt. Yet, these parties push us to accept their candidates, even when those candidates don't align with our values or views. I believe Americans deserve better. Both parties have the right to field far-left or far-right candidates, but voters shouldn't be forced to pick the lesser of two undesirable choices. Perhaps it’s time to create an independent party that truly represents the values and views of millions of centrist, moderate, and independent voters in America. Just food for thought.

Many legendary traders are celebrated as “Market Wizards.” But how can we tell whether an extraordinary track record truly reflects skill, or whether it could simply emerge from randomness? To explore this question, imagine a large group of investors trading the market over many years. Suppose none of them has any particular skill. They invest in stocks largely driven by intuition or gut feeling. Even in such a world, probability tells us something remarkable: when enough participants are involved, a small number will inevitably end up with spectacular performance. This observation becomes even more relevant in environments where many traders compete and are evaluated over relatively short periods of time, sometimes just a single year. In our study, we simulate exactly this situation. Thousands of investors start with identical conditions and trade over time with no informational advantage. We then analyze the distribution of outcomes and focus on the traders who end up at the very top of the performance ranking. What we find raises an important question about how we interpret exceptional track records in financial markets. The full analysis and results of the experiment are available here. (link in the comments)