LitioInv

@sparkes_dwayne The figure of 850,000–875,000 metric tons of lithium concentrate is based solely on media reports, whereas the 130,000 metric tons of lithium carbonate equivalent is disclosed in Zijin Mining’s annual report. Zijin will produce both lithium concentrate and lithium sulfate.

Saw this article today on the Manono North Deposit and just couldn’t help myself but to make comment. I'll also give my opinion on the deposit as I've had a few people ask for it. Firstly, the deposit was stolen from AVZ shareholders. I hope AVZ holders get what they deserve for this deposit and it's absolutely pathetic by the Australian government to sit idle. Lots of hard earned Aussie dollars were put into exploring and developing the orebody and the government stays silent? This orebody needed to stay under the one company in order for it to achieve its maximum potential. Zijin gained control of what is now known as Manono North which predominantly consists of the The Carriere de l’Este Pegmatite, often referenced as the CDL Pegmatite. I do think it's the inferior part of the orebody. It's lower grade than the Roche Dure Pegmatite (not in Zijin's control and to the south) and from an early stage, it seems its metallurgy wont be as good. Personally I think splitting the deposit up was also a technical mistake. I think it was important from a metallurgy point of view to keep the both the north and south together. The article states that the Manono North mine will produce up to 130,000 tonnes of LCE per year. I’d argue it won’t be anywhere even close to this. 40.4/(0.82*6) = 8.2 tonnes of SC6 per tonne of LCE. 130,000 * 8.2 = 1.06 million tonnes of SC6. 6/(1.58*0.7) = 5.43 tonnes of 1.58% ore needed per tonne of SC6. I’ve used a very generous recovery rate of 70% and you’ll see why it's generous later. 1.06million tonnes * 5.43 = 5.75Mtpa This seems doable but the problem is, I don’t think Manono North is going to produce SC6 looking at historical met work and its grade. I think Manono will join the same club as LTR, PLS, MIN, in terms of recoveries. It’s not Greenbushes. I think it will produce somewhere around SC5.2. 40.4/(0.82*5.2) = 9.47 tonnes of SC5.2 needed per tonne of LCE. It becomes very different when you plug this in. So they are going to need far more than the 850kt of concentrate as stated within the article to produce those 130kt of LCE. At the time Zijin took control of the north section, the resource was entirely inferred. This is understandable given the lack of drillholes and met work that had been undertaken (AVZ were mainly focusing on the south and doing a great job). I could be mistaken, but I haven’t seen anything via satellite (generally signs of drillholes are easily identifiable) that suggest Zijin has done further work to progress the deposit from Inferred to indicated or measured. So there's a decent chance that the proper work hasn't gone into understanding CDL and it's getting rushed. One thing that is important to understand is that size of the deposit just one of the many criteria which should be used to rank a deposit. If the deposit is larger than 90-100Mt, I’d say it gets less and less important. Grade and metallurgy become king. So, Manono North is large, but lets talk about its grade and metallurgy. I dug into historical metallurgy testwork undertaken on the CDL pegmatite and it was average. I can’t find any flotation testwork done on CDL specifically, but the DMS testwork gave 55% recoveries for 5.6mm size and 66% for 3.35mm size. But here's the issue, the head grade used in these tests was 2.37% Li2O. The average grade of the deposit is 1.58% Li2O … What happens if you plug in the average grade of the deposit? So that rules out it being purely a DMS deposit and flotation will be required. Here’s some info from an old post on DMS and flotation from an older post of mine: x.com/sparkes_dwayne… So they’ll need to float it which means higher CAPEX and OPEX. There is some flotation test work done on the pegmatite to the south so I’ll use that as a bit of a guide (It’s a rough guide as metallurgy can change rapidly over 50 meters let alone kms). It came in at 81.5%. Lab work always comes in higher. Every single time. Also it's important to note that this test work was done on a higher grade pegmatite than CDL. One example which is comparable from a testwork and grade point of view is Kathleen Valley. Manono south's testwork for flotation comes in at almost identical to how Kathleen valley’s (whole of ore flotation not DMS + flotation) did. 81.5% vs 81%. Liontown’s recovery is now at ~63% for SC5.2, 18% less than what the test work gave and not for SC6 as their test work suggested. Just an example how lab tests don't equal what actually happens in practice. Summary: So in my opinion, Manono North will be somewhat similar to another Kathleen valley or Wodgina coming online. It's grade is somewhat above average @ 1.58% and I'd say its metallurgy is average. Yes it's large, but above 90-100Mt, this becomes less important. So overall a good deposit, but it's no Greenbushes and i don't believe it will spit out the tonnes as what many are suggesting. In order to get those tonnes you're going to need an extremely large capex and i don't think Zijin will invest that much given the nature as to how they got the deposit and also the jurisdiction (unstable). Those are my thoughts on the Manono North Deposit. Cheers for reading.

MinRes $MIN finally puts Bald hill into Care and Maintenance

@mineralsmindset @MorganStanley @SMM_MetalsPrice However, For the SMM' data, it is impossible for them to know the monthly production of Chinese producers because no one will tell or confirm it.

@LitioInv @MorganStanley @SMM_MetalsPrice Just for you. Courtesy of Goldman Sachs this time. Validates that 2024 lithium production in China will have substantially increased, with brine, lepidolite and spodumene sources all up from 2023.

China 🇨🇳 increasing domestic brine production in 2024 while #lithium production remains "resilient." A snapshot into China's #lithium production in 2024 year reveals #brine volumes up 24% YTD, with #spodumene production rebounding in October and #lepidolite falling 36% since June.

@mineralsmindset @MorganStanley @SMM_MetalsPrice Thx. I agree that annual production from China and Chinese-operated African mines will gradually increase, but due to the current low price environment, the growth rate will be slower.

@mineralsmindset @MorganStanley @SMM_MetalsPrice SMM's data are all based on speculation, the Chinese do not publish production data regularly.

@LitioInv @MorganStanley @SMM_MetalsPrice Care to elaborate?

@Silver__Santa grade is key

$BCM.V - BEAR CREEK MINING Corani is a real Silver Gem. Let's took at some data below: + 229 MOZ AG !!! + 16.3 - 9.6 MOZ AG / Year !!! + During 15 Years !!! + At $4.55 / OZ !!! + All permitted in Peru !!! What can we compare this to ? Let's compare this to SILVERCREST and GATOS, as both these companies have been recently acquired: + SILVERCREST: +- 10 MOZ AGEQ / Year +- $2,150M MCAP +- $12.6 AISC / OZ + GATOS: +- 14 MOZ AGEQ / Year +- $1,120M MCAP +-$12.0 AISC / OZ Compare this to BEAR CREEK MINING with +- 10-16 MOZ AGEQ / Year +- $152M MCAP +- $4.55 AISC / OZ. BCM is certainly an interesting buy-out candidate. It can produce more than SILVERCREST or GATOS, has a X10 smaller MCAP, and can produce at a X3 lower price. A big Silver company will want to make sure that the acquisition can produce Silver at a low cost, so that the operation will remain profitable even at a low Silver price. Imagine the profits between the current $32 Silver price and the $4.55 AISC.

@EVCurveFuturist Demand side. From 2021 to present, the total of China's incremental #lithium demand for electric vehicles is 1.6 times the total demand outside of China, making it the biggest driving factor for #lithium demand, a Chinese industry research firm Randiz said.

@EVCurveFuturist The combined incremental production from the rest of the world is 1.9 times greater than the incremental production from China and its overseas mines. In other words, ROW contributed more supply.

@EVCurveFuturist fake news

@jczuleta not lithium

#China’s #Tianqi to Keep Fighting for Role in $SQM #Lithium Deal: au.finance.yahoo.com/news/china-tia…. Tianqi, which owns 22% of Chilean miner SQM, is trying to force it to hold a shareholder vote on its partnership with state-owned copper giant #Codelco. Is this why it's rallying today? No.

@mineralsmindset @GSCareers Absolutely wrong about the supply of lepidolite

What's going on with #Lithium production in China 🇨🇳? #Lepidolite mines may come offline, but could #brine offset those cuts? Albeit temporarily? Goldman Sachs estimates 385kt LCE supply out of China alone for 2024.

@_triangulate_ @EvanCranston A Chinese industry research firm Randiz. The closure of the #Catl mine is meaningless for #lithium market balance, and the market needs more shutdowns.

@LitioInv @EvanCranston Where'd you get that info from? Does seem that the #lithium CATL story maybe got exaggerated based on what we know so far...? x.com/mineralsmindse…

We like confirmation from #CATL (not just speculation) that it’s suspends lepidolite production from its Jiangxi mine. Up to 72,000t LCE off the market! Or 500-550kt of SC6 gone. 75% of $PLS production! Chinese lithiums limit up! #lithium

@GoldDiscovery1 well done. expect for a series of resources in west Africa and South America

Biggest Gold Resources in Canada owned by Junior

@skyquake_1 The first phase of the #CATL mine has a prod capacity of 40ktpa and is still ramping up, with a monthly production of around 3kt, half of the reported volume. For this year, the reduction is up to 9kt. The closure at the end of September will not change the surplus.#lithium

#Lithium equities timeline this morn, all AEST: 9:16am - UBS publishes CATL note on mining halts. 9:55am - Aus lith equities start matching on really high volume, eg. $PLS/$PLS.AX 10:15am - AU lith ADRs like $LTM trade at large prems to their US counterparts $ALTM 11:10am - China GZ lith open up a little, doesnt really move till cash opens at 11:30am, some brokers are aware but nothing on newswires. Aus liths begin selling off 11:58am - $1772 Ganfeng lith gaps up 7% then fades... then takes 30min to crack a new high. Most people still have no idea what's going on? Reports about mine closure are inconclusive, news finally hits Bloomie and the veracity no longer really matters. The great lithium bull market of Sep2024 had begun May it last longer than the great lithium bull market of Aug2024 (3day), July2024(2 days), June (2 days)

@ausstockchick Fake news! The first phase of the CATL mine has a prod capacity of 40ktpa and is still ramping up, with a monthly production of around 3kt, half of the reported volume. For this year, the reduction is up to 9kt. The closure at the end of September will not change the surplus.

For those interested in why $ASX #lithium stocks rallied today, read this. Major lithium and battery manufacturer CATL has officially announced the suspension of its lithium lepidolite operation in Jiangxi. That’s an 8% cut in China's monthly lithium carbonate equivalent production, or about 5-6,000 tonnes!! Pretty big news. marketindex.com.au/news/lithium-s…

The first phase of the CATL mine has a production capacity of 40,000 tpa and is still ramping up, with a monthly production of only around 3,000 tonnes, half of the reported volume. The closure at the end of September will not change the surplus.

@jczuleta The first phase production capacity of CATL's mine is only 40,000 tpa, and it is still ramping up, with a monthly output of only about 3,000 tons, which is half of what was reported. The shutdown will not change the surplus.

Why are Australian & Chinese #lithium mining company stocks rallying so much right now? Is it because of the news from China about spot & futures prices? Chances are it is.

Randiz, an industry consulting firm in China, said that the western producers have contributed more supplies and should take more responsibilities in curbing supply and establishing supply discipline. #lithium #Zimbabwe $PLS $IGO $SGML $MIN $ALB $SQM