Martin Paré
25.6K posts

Martin Paré
@MPare1966
Actualités, Sports, Techno, Politique, Hockey, Cyclisme, Séries TV, Musique, Ski, Arbitre au football mineur et RSEQ (Tweet en français & in english) #Gunners
Sherbrooke, Canada เข้าร่วม Şubat 2010
1.2K กำลังติดตาม613 ผู้ติดตาม
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@LauraKirk12 @skr448 @premierleague Imagine my disappointment. I’m in London the whole week prior (on vacation from Canada) and we leave on the Monday morning. My 4th game at the Emirates will have to wait… 🙄
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Hello @premierleague where do I send the invoice for re-arranging travel costs
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The Strait of Hormuz was not closed by mines, missiles, or warships.
It was closed by seven insurance letters.
On March 5, seven P&I clubs covering 90% of global ocean-going tonnage cancelled war-risk coverage for the Persian Gulf. Gard. NorthStandard. Skuld. Steamship Mutual. The American Club. The Swedish Club. The London P&I Club. They withdrew because their London reinsurers, bound by Solvency II capital rules, could not hold unlimited tail exposure in an active combat zone. The reinsurers pulled capacity. The mutuals had no mathematical choice.
Traffic through Hormuz collapsed from 138 vessel crossings per day to zero tankers by March 7. Three hundred oil tankers anchored idle. A thousand ships trapped. VLCC rates hit a record $481,170 per day. Brent surged from $67 to $108 in nine days, the largest weekly gain in futures history since 1983.
Three US carrier strike groups are in theatre. Air superiority is achieved. 80% of Iran's air defences are destroyed. Missile launches are down 86%.
The Strait is still commercially shut.
The US Navy has escorted zero tankers. Trump's $20 billion DFC reinsurance facility covers 5.7% of JPMorgan's estimated $352 billion Gulf exposure. Confirmed VLCC transits under the programme: zero.
Markets price a 2-to-4-week resolution. The mechanism says 6 to 18 months. Here is why.
Reopening requires not military victory but sequential reinsurance recapitalisation, actuarial reassessment, and individual vessel re-underwriting across the entire London treaty chain. After 26 months of Houthi attacks, Red Sea premiums never returned to baseline. This is a state-on-state war with leadership decapitation and total insurance withdrawal.
It gets worse. The strikes that killed Khamenei triggered Iran's Mosaic Defence doctrine: 31 autonomous IRGC provincial commands with independent firing authority. Insurance markets need a single counterparty to guarantee safe passage. The campaign destroyed the only entity that could provide one.
The interceptor arithmetic is merciless. US THAAD production: 8 per month. Iran's missile production: 100+ per month. Shahed drone cost: $20,000. THAAD interceptor: $12.7 million. The campaign burns years of production in weeks.
And the nuclear fatwa that restrained Iran for two decades was a personal ruling from a living cleric. The cleric is dead. His son lacks the theological authority to reimpose it. 441 kg of near-weapons-grade uranium survived the strikes. The IAEA is blind.
This is 'Actuarial Warfare'. Private reinsurance desks under Solvency II now exercise more effective denial power over the world's most critical energy chokepoint than the most powerful navy in history.
And unlike kinetic denial, actuarial denial operates on institutional timescales that no executive order, no $20 billion facility, and no carrier strike group can compress.
The market is pricing a legacy framework. The mechanism says the framework is dead.
Full analysis for in my Substack! Paywall removed! open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

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BREAKING
CENTCOM says a seventh U.S. service member has died from injuries sustained during Islamic Republic retaliation following Operation Epic Fury, the ongoing U.S.–Israel war against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
The service member died from injuries sustained on March 1 while serving in Saudi Arabia.
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So Spurs gave us 6 points this season.
But they’ve taken 4 points out of Shitty.
So all and all, they’ve contributed 10 points to our title charge.
#Spursy
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There’s an argument to be made that the loss at home last week was something we needed. It came at an ideal point in the season and maybe when we’ll look back and the end of February, it’ll prove being a turning point. #My2cents
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I think this perception mismatch is driven by three main factors and that is screwing with how people perceive "normal":
1) There is an unwinding of a boost in goal scoring from large added time. 23/24 and 24/25 were outliers for league wide scoring.
2) There has been a sudden and stark tactical shift in defense league wide. Open play scoring is down basically across the board in the Premier League.
3) Parity is up in the League. The quality going down the table is way up, it's harder to get big goal totals even as the best team when the talent gap has shrunk.
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@clivepafc @YankeeGunner We didn’t score, yet managed to gain a point on both 2nd place teams. 😅
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