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Prediction:
The number of public companies holding #bitcoin on their balance sheet will at least double in 2025.
Currently we’re at around 70.
Chart h/t @HODL15Capital
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James McKay
8.9K posts
James McKay
@McKayResearch
Founder @McKayResearch. Crypto class of 2017. Independent Research: Digital & Alternative Assets @3iq_corp, @Signal21btc. Techno-realist. Pluralist. Jazz nut.
เข้าร่วม Mart 2017
1.7K กำลังติดตาม1.6K ผู้ติดตาม
James McKay รีทวีตแล้ว
Bitcoin also continues to show resilience as it tests the upper bounds of a potential bear flag. Technical Analysis 101 states that when bear market rallies get overbought (per the stochastics below), it’s usually the kiss of death and time to sell. However, during bull markets overbought momentum means that the market is strong and likely to stay strong. My conclusion is that if Bitcoin cannot be pulled down by this current combination of overbought momentum and trendline resistance, then this is an emerging bull market and not a bear market rally. That’s been my hunch all along and it may be about to get confirmed. More on this later.
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There’s plenty of data around to suggest that we’re not ready to move higher *yet* for $BTC.
Chart here via @cryptoquant_com shows futures / spot demand divergence, with the latter’s demand yet to show signs of a fundamental rebound.
Patience.
#Bitcoin
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@APompliano I’ve admittedly not done a deep dive on this but I thought it was well known that the US has some of the poorest healthcare outcomes per per capita health spend of developed nations….if not *the* worst.
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This chart makes it seem like the United States is an outlier, but I get suspicious when I see “adjusted for inflation and price differences between countries.”
Do we think this data set is accurate?
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@WOLF_Bitcoin_ @IOHK_Charles What a tragic case of confusing “feature” with “bug.”
Bitcoin doesn’t try to do everything. It tries to do one thing: not break. Every “more capable” chain is just a science experiment with a token attached.
But yeah… go build your world computer. I’ll hold the money.
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Sound take.
#Bitcoin doesn’t have the years on the board to be universally recognised as a safe haven *yet*, but its rep as a macro hedge is on the rise.
The current geopolitical landscape is a reminder of how far certain actors are willing to go to keep the music going.
Willy Woo@willywoo
Most Bitcoiners think BTC is a safe haven asset but the truth is nuanced. It has the properties of a safe haven asset. In times of war you can take your seed phrase, cross borders and start afresh without losing your wealth. It should be independent of the system and thrive if it collapses. These are the properties you’d expect of a safe haven. BTC has the properties of a safe haven but to this day, in times of uncertainty and war it trades like a risk asset, very sensitive to uncertainty. This is because the large capital pools don’t acknowledge BTC’s properties as it’s considered too new and untested. Hence it trades like the NASDAQ. It’ll take another decade for it to gain market acceptance as a safe haven, maybe longer. When it does, it’ll give gold market cap a run for its money.
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Yes the US is technically bankrupt, but they’ll be able to kick the can down the road for some time to come and recent actions in the Middle East and elsewhere underscore efforts to *enforce* that that remains the case.
#Bitcoin
Simply Bitcoin@SimplyBitcoin
PROFESSOR JIANG XUEQIN: "America is sitting on $39 trillion in debt, the US economy is a Ponzi scheme that relies on foreign nations to continually buy US dollars."
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This is correct.
We’ve seen over and over that upside $BTC during bulls is as overestimated as much as the downside during bears.
Those calling for 10-30K will then typically lead the charge for the most unrealistic upside projections once bottom targets are missed.
#Bitcoin
Plan C@TheRealPlanC
I tried to warn you. 👇
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Proof that its okay to say, "I dont know" when discussing something so clearly out of your depth.
James McKay@McKayResearch
It’s taken some time, but I think I’ve finally heard an explanation that’s making me doubt my thesis around #Bitcoin.
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It’s taken some time, but I think I’ve finally heard an explanation that’s making me doubt my thesis around #Bitcoin.
Bitcoin News@BitcoinNewsCom
Tell me you don’t understand Bitcoin without saying you don’t understand Bitcoin.
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@SimplyBitcoin In other words, I was wrong, I’m still wrong now, and therefore have to double down in the distant hope that I might be right.
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Economist Steve Keen says Bitcoin will go to zero because it uses too much energy.
He also admits he was offered Bitcoin at £1 per coin and didn't buy it.
The man predicting zero has been wrong since the beginning.
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James McKay รีทวีตแล้ว
Below we can see that when Bitcoin peaked last October, the ETP flows left Bitcoin and jumped on the gold bandwagon. Now that gold has lost its mojo while Bitcoin is finding its footing, the flows have reversed. To me this is a good way to think about why gold has started acting like Bitcoin and bitcoin has started acting like gold.
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James McKay รีทวีตแล้ว
Google: quantum could break bitcoin sooner than expected
Bitcoin: +2.6%
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I see that we’ve reached the point where people are airing ‘base cases’ for how high #Bitcoin can go in the next cycle.
These predictions appear more measured than prices the drum was being beaten for in 2025, which itself is a decent bottoming signal for $BTC.
A reminder:
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@dlawant Indeed. The “wealth effect.” He wasn’t wrong was he?
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I’m old enough to remember Bernanke’s Congress testimony in 2011 stating that QE is not debt monetization because it’s temporary.
15 years later and here we are…
Eric Wallerstein@ericwallerstein
Governor Miran dropped The User’s Guide pt 2, Fed edition
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James McKay รีทวีตแล้ว
🚨🗞️NEW: Crypto Leaders Split Over Stablecoin Yield Deal as Industry Backlash Builds
Plus, @FinancialCmte holds a hearing on tokenization at 10AM ET; and SEC Chairman @SECPaulSAtkins joins @CryptoAmerica_ for our one-year anniversary episode. ⬇️
cryptoinamerica.com/p/crypto-leade…
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@Scaramucci It’s my impression that a whole lot of people have been saying that for donkeys’ years but you weren’t able to hear it because of your total preoccupation with a certain orange-tinged individual.
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Most of you will hate me saying this, but I will say it anyway.
The Democrats are in complete disarray and have no coherent message.
No real solutions. Just anti-Trump rhetoric on a loop.
And listen — I understand the anti-Trump sentiment. I share a lot of it.
But that is not a governing platform. That is not a vision for the country.
And it is not going to win elections.
Talk to your constituents about affordability.
About raising living standards. About the wealth gap that is tearing this country apart at the seams.
Here’s the hard truth: If we don’t fix the wealth gap through traditional American capitalism, we will have a populist leader on the left or a populist leader on the right in perpetuity.
And that is genuinely dangerous for the country.
Trump looks imperious right now. Looks invincible. I understand why people are scared.
But he’s got 36 months.
He can do a lot of damage in 36 months. I won’t minimize that.
But it is 36 months.
The question is whether the opposition uses that time to build something real or spends it screaming into the void.
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