Moritz.sol

Thoughts.... Every time someone utters the phrase, “NFT season is about to start,” we are met with the same outcome: a slow bleed or an outright dump. It has become a ritual prediction (part hopeful, part delusional) that has reliably preceded disappointment since the original NFT cycle ended. And yet, each time, the believers return. Why? Because the phrase reveals more than it intends. It reveals a deep misunderstanding of what NFTs have become. Since the collapse of their original momentum, NFTs are no longer trading assets....they are luxury goods. And luxury is not purchased in anticipation of gain; it is purchased in the afterglow of it. People buy luxury when they feel invincible, when the scoreboard says they’re winning, or when fresh profits burn holes in their wallets. In markets, that moment is always near the top. Luxury signals abundance, not opportunity. And by the time people feel abundant, the opportunity has already passed. This is why every so-called “NFT season” post-2021 has been a local top. Because when NFTs resurface, they do not signal a new highs, they mark the end of one. They're what people buy after they’ve won, not what they use to win. There’s a deeper structural reason, too: there will never be another NFT season like the last. That meta wasn’t just a trading phenomenon....it was a cultural infiltration. NFTs became a narrative bridge between crypto and the Web2 world, pulling in fresh capital, social capital, and attention. That bridge has collapsed. And most of the money it brought in was extracted by the top before the music stopped. The harsh truth is that the gains used by today’s NFT buyers are trickle-down profits....waterfall gains passed down from institutions to natives. The funds set the stage. They rotated into strong hands, then smart hands, and eventually into enthusiastic hands. By the time those gains reach the NFT buyer, they’re at the bottom of the waterfall. But the bottom of the waterfall cannot trade luxury....it can only consume it. Because there’s no one else further down to sell it to. NFTs today are not instruments of upward mobility, they are artifacts of past euphoria. We’ll see how this plays out. But history suggests we already know.