Oraculum Nobius

I’ve lost. Again. One of the bots crashed, costing me 8k. I’m not giving up. I’m carrying on.

@strider_pm @OraculumNobius @Polymarket They will never return anything to anybody

@zerozerominus I can see it, bro. It's awful.

@OraculumNobius Hi bro same shit with me on apple market above 265 -10k$….

Big day, good day, Polymarket day!

@tsybka @Polymarket @mustafap0ly I’m not the only one who’s lost money because of this bug

@OraculumNobius @Polymarket @mustafap0ly

Hey, @Polymarket we have a problem... Lost $10,000 on Polymarket today, and not because of a wrong call. Because of how the platform handles market identifiers. After a market resolves, Polymarket reuses the same internal market_id for a brand new, unrelated market. The blockchain layer (UMA) sees one event for the old market — but every off-chain API has already silently rebound that id to the next one. So this is what happened on my side: The old market resolves on-chain. The settle event for that resolution carries the recycled id. By the time my bot reads the market data for that id, the platform’s API is happily returning a totally different, still-open market — currently trading around 45/55. The bot trusted the id. It saw “settled, winner = NO” and went to buy NO at ~99¢ on what it thought was a finished market. In reality, that NO was a coin-flip on a live market that hadn’t even closed yet. 10k USD, gone in one click, on a bet that has zero edge. The frustrating part isn’t the loss — it’s the design. A market identifier is supposed to be the one thing you can rely on. The moment a platform recycles ids across markets, every integration, bot, dashboard and analytics tool downstream is one race condition away from doing exactly what mine just did. Builders on Polymarket: assume ids can be reused. Pin everything to the on-chain question/condition hash, never to the numeric market_id. Cross-check the on-chain question text against the live market metadata before you act on a settle event. Polymarket: please stop reusing market ids. Or at minimum, version them. Retweet plz.

@OraculumNobius @grazkag @Polymarket you can chill now

You can now enable auto-claim for your winning market rewards! @Polymarket

@grazkag @Polymarket No way! I did program autoclaim myself of course, but I always run into limitation.

@OraculumNobius why do you think so

I still consider this to be the most reliable source of income, yielding 20% annually. polymarket.com/event/will-rus…

1. Complex terrain with multiple rivers blocks rapid Russian advances. 2. Sumy remains non-priority direction for Russian command. 3. No significant progress recorded in Sumy direction. 4. Ukrainian army heavily reinforced by mass drone production. 5. Rivers create natural barriers slowing armored columns. 6. Drones enable precise Ukrainian strikes on Russian logistics. 7. Russian forces lack resources for secondary northern front. 8. Ukrainian drone swarms dominate local airspace. 9. Zero breakthroughs since initial border probes. 10. Enhanced Ukrainian drone defenses make capture impossible by March 2027. 11. I also have a very good understanding of the structure and capabilities of both sides.

The biggest headache for developers of automated trading systems is updating all APIs and protocols. Polymarket is switching to its own currency pUSD, and everything will need to be tested by April 28.

It’s actually 100% of the capital, just spread across different trades. After all, I’m buying bonds in exchange for the time I have to wait. Those who sell at 99.9 just want to get their money quickly so they can rush back to buy their 50 cents. I, on the other hand, not only have to wait (sometimes the markets freeze for several days), but also take on the risks of a dispute. That’s why my capital is constantly tied up in trades; you can see this in my account. Sometimes there are fewer than 100 trades at once, and sometimes more.

@OraculumNobius crazy what % of your capital is used? i wonder if there's enough liquidity

8,500 trades in half a month. It’s a tough job being a bond buyer :)))

Yes, but. I’m paying the price for taking the risk of a dispute. And I lost $10,000 in March specifically because of a Bond dispute. In other words, the strategy isn’t without risk. You can lose a lot while gaining little. You can improve results by making subtle adjustments to your market strategy -buying less in some market and more in others.

@OraculumNobius you bond on 99.9 after event actually happened?