Pelham

9.1K posts

Pelham

Pelham

@PelhamKS

เข้าร่วม Aralık 2022
318 กำลังติดตาม308 ผู้ติดตาม
Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@JoyceCarolOates Of those factors, I'd put the greatest emphasis on the media.
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Joyce Carol Oates
Joyce Carol Oates@JoyceCarolOates·
yes, this is true; it seems to have been a collective effort of mainstream media to "sanitize" much of what T***p has done. (not a new idea: it has been stated countless times. but media continues.) along with this, the validation of T***p by the Republican Party helped to normalize corruption; not least, failure by Democrats to confront T***p & colossal failure of M. Garland to prosecute which allowed much of America to think that the insurrection was not so important after all.
Rick Petree@RickPetree

I’ve said before that the most surprising thing to me about Americans’ reaction to the Trump era has been the relative indifference to flagrant corruption. I didn’t expect it and I don’t understand it. It’s the deadliest poison they’ve injected into the Republic’s bloodstream.

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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@smerconish Have you ever polled whether the upper limit on income that's taxed for SS should be limited? It's the glaringly obvious solution.
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@michaelshermer @MickWest Agreed with your base rate calculation. But in some of these individual cases the disappearance occurred under circumstances worth investigating.
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Michael Shermer
Michael Shermer@michaelshermer·
This is the correct calculation @mickwest to provide context for what Kahneman called "base rate neglect" or what I call the Henny Youngman Effect. To the question "how's your wife?" the comedian replied: "compared to what?" 10 deaths/missing is meaningless without context.
Mick West@MickWest

This is stupid. The 10 people represent vastly fewer deaths and missing people than you'd expect from the population represented by those 10 people, whichever way you slice it. Doocy's framing is "access to classified nuclear or aerospace material." The relevant population is the cleared workforce in those sectors. Conservatively: - Los Alamos National Laboratory: ~16,000 employees and contractors - Sandia National Laboratories: ~17,000 - Lawrence Livermore: ~8,000 - NASA (full agency + contractors): ~60,000 - Kansas City National Security Campus: ~7,000 - Air Force Research Laboratory and associated contractors: ~10,000+ - Aerospace defense contractors with nuclear/classified aerospace roles (Lockheed, Raytheon, Northrop, Boeing, Aerojet, etc.): several hundred thousand A conservative minimum for "access to classified nuclear or aerospace material" is at least 500,000 people. The actual figure using Doocy's framing is arguably closer to 1–2 million if you include all cleared aerospace and defense contractor personnel. Expected deaths over ~2 years The ages of the 10 average around 59. For educated US professionals aged 45–70, annual all-cause mortality runs roughly 0.7–1.0% per year. Using 500,000 people at 0.8% per year over 2 years: Expected deaths = 500,000 × 0.008 × 2 = 8,000 Even in a far more restricted population of 50,000 the expected deaths are 800. Finding 10 is not anomalous — it is a near-invisible fraction of expected mortality. Expected homicides US homicide rate is approximately 6 per 100,000 per year. In 500,000 people over 2 years: Expected homicides = 500,000 × 0.00006 × 2 = 60 The list contains at most 2 genuine homicides (Loureiro and Grillmair) with identified perpetrators and no UAP connection. That is below the expected rate. Expected missing persons Roughly 600,000 people are reported missing in the US annually — about 0.18% per year. In 500,000 people over 2 years: Expected missing = 500,000 × 0.0018 × 2 = 1,800 The list contains 5 missing persons. Again, well within expectation. You can restrict the calculation to just "scientists"; it does not change anything. It's just cherry-picking some cases from the expected thousands and calling it a pattern.

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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@ninaturner And utterly predictable, except for the one specific Dem to vote against. But as sure as day follows night, you knew there would be one or two.
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@michaelshermer It's just more exciting to speculate on the improbable.
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Michael Shermer
Michael Shermer@michaelshermer·
Question: Why is there so much more demand for positive than negative claims? For example: Believers in UFOs=aliens get far more media coverage than us skeptics. Believers science proves God get far more coverage than we atheists & agnostics. Believers in conspiracies... Why?
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@cafreiman What happened in Russia? Odd that you don't include this.
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Chris Freiman
Chris Freiman@cafreiman·
It’s amazing that this even needs to be said in 2026, but the collapse of communism was a good thing:
Chris Freiman tweet media
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@michaelshermer I generally like Spielberg movies. But after 60 years of hopefully following UFO stuff, I'm so fed up that I'll probably give this film a pass. Especially after that kind of hype by Spielberg.
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@naomirwolf But spending like that would be inflationary. Spending on bombs isn't.
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@JamesSurowiecki Isn't it just a little odd that the "energy independent" US is now suffering with soaring gas prices? Supposedly it's because of the "global" market in the stuff. I suspect it has more to do with a convenient market arrangement that allows oil companies to make a bundle.
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James Surowiecki
James Surowiecki@JamesSurowiecki·
Gas prices are the very last thing you can lie about to Americans, and you'll never convince them the price of gas doesn't matter. It's in our face every day. Americans use 375 million gallons of gasoline every day. Gas prices have been roughly a dollar a gallon higher for a month. So Americans have had to shell out roughly $10 billion more for gasoline because of Trump's decision to go to war. Trump is dreaming if he thinks people haven't noticed.
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@FrankLuntz I'm suspicious of these astronomical casualty numbers on both sides in this war. Anyone who remembers the US body counts of supposedly killed VCs in the Vietnam War should be raising questions.
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@allenanalysis On the face of it, this is exasperating. But in the long history of disappointing votes by congressional Democrats, it's purely predictable. They're ALWAYS coming up just 1 or 2 votes short of doing much of anything constructive. They want to LOOK progressive, not BE progressive.
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Brian Allen
Brian Allen@allenanalysis·
🚨 BREAKING: The House just failed to end Trump’s Iran war by ONE vote. 213-214. One Democrat. Jared Golden of Maine. That’s it. That’s the margin. One Democrat crossed the aisle and gave Trump the war.
Brian Allen tweet media
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@chucktodd I laughed out loud when I learned he quoted a "Pulp Fiction" character rather than Ezekiel at some kind of prayer gathering.
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Chuck Todd
Chuck Todd@chucktodd·
Poor Pete Hegseth, he’s clearly got the worst case of poser complex DC’s ever seen and that’s saying something.
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@JoyceCarolOates Didn't Trump graduate from some fancy business school? Which raises some pretty alarming questions about fancy schools.
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Joyce Carol Oates
Joyce Carol Oates@JoyceCarolOates·
no one can really comprehend: a person with virtually no sense of history, no empathy, no conscience, & lacking even minimal education & intelligence, somehow has become the "chief (i.e., only) executive" of the allegedly most powerful nation on earth. impossible to explain to ourselves let alone to our neighbors to the North.
Richard Goatcher@richardgoatcher

@JoyceCarolOates Canadians find this very chilling, JCO. DT says "After Iran, Cuba is next." Then he starts to (again) natter about Greenland. How long before the WH decides 🇨🇦 is run by Communists, presents a security threat to the 🇺🇸 & needs a "regime change?"

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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@georgegalloway The timeline appears to be longer, and the number may not be particularly suspicious. However, a few of these scientists have disappeared or died under very odd circumstances. These alone may be worth investigating.
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George Galloway
George Galloway@georgegalloway·
TEN American scientists familiar with the US nuclear program are either missing, have died suddenly or have been murdered in the last 12 months. Nobody with power seems to think that’s in any way strange…
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@Milajoy Let's hope it's not weed, which damages DNA.
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Mila Joy
Mila Joy@Milajoy·
GEN Z isnt drinking alcohol. The alcohol industry has LOST over $800 billion in the last four years. Are they smoking weed instead? Pills? Or just living sober?
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@esaagar Contrary to myth, federal taxation is PURELY a means of taming inflation. So it makes sense to tax people in their prime more than retirees. Put more money into young people's pockets and they're more likely to spend it, driving up inflation and eroding the value of the currency.
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@ChrisCuomo Where do we get that figure of 30,000? I see it bandied about a lot minus any attribution or skepticism. Also, it's suspiciously round.
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Christopher C. Cuomo
Christopher C. Cuomo@ChrisCuomo·
The regime sucks. The people of iran people deserve freedom. If you think the pope believes otherwise you're a dope. By the way, show me proof of that number you cite?
Derrick Smith@1ImperialStout

@ChrisCuomo Did the Pope call out the Iranian regime for massacring 30,000 protestors?

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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@DeanAbbott Well put. I remember my dad sitting at the breakfast table with the Kansas City Times spread out, going through page by page. Another key element was trust. Newspapers had layers of editors who weeded out the kind of iffy content saturating the internet.
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Dean Abbott
Dean Abbott@DeanAbbott·
I know I've said it before, but I'll say it again. Very few people appreciate what America lost when we lost newspapers. Just being able to sit down every morning in silence and peruse news, opinion, sports, advice, recipes, interesting human interest stories all in one place was such a pleasure. The Internet has never produced anything that comes close.
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Pelham
Pelham@PelhamKS·
@smerconish Great question. I suspect "fiscally conservative, socially liberal" will finish way ahead. (It just sounds like a good, responsible thing to be, even though I'm just the opposite.) But I also bet if you polled people on key fiscal and social issues, the results would differ.
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Michael Smerconish
Michael Smerconish@smerconish·
Today's Poll Question at Smerconish.com: Which describes you best? a) Fiscally liberal, socially conservative, b) Fiscally conservative, socially conservative, c) Fiscally liberal, socially liberal, d) Fiscally conservative, socially liberal. Listen to today's Podcast: link.podtrac.com/smerconishpod
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