Probably Nice

@shytleh @Hoffman8Jon @CatoInstitute There is no military solution to Iranian proliferation, and there already was a deal (the JCPOA) which successfully kept Iran from developing nukes.

@Hoffman8Jon @CatoInstitute Hey, can you add a paragraph outlining that you think it's OK for Iran to have nukes? If your feedback all but assures that, you should own it.

My latest with @CatoInstitute. It is time to face reality: tactical successes cannot mask what has quickly become another strategic failure in the Middle East. Washington has proved incapable or unwilling to learn from its past mistakes in the region. cato.org/blog/strategic…

@VixCentral @michaeldweiss The IDF would fail at taking Kharg island, considering it is devoid of small children and doctors, which is their preferred quarry.

@michaeldweiss What he describes is the brute force way, not the smart way. That is not how the IDF would do it. Also, the aim of taking the island is to deny its use to Iranians. You do not need a permanent garrison on it once you clear the Iranians out.

I asked a retired U.S. Marine familiar with amphibious operations about a MEU on Kharg Island. Granted, this person doesn't have "OSINT" in his Twitter bio, so what the hell would he know? But this is what he told me, contra Trump's claim this is a "simple military maneuver": "Amphibious landings are by nature high risk and a lot can go wrong even in the best conditions. The Marine Corps has lost equipment during exercises, for example when an Abrams tank was sunk during an exercise on the coast of Spain in the 2010s. "An amphibious landing on Kharg is within the capability of the United States to accomplish, but at what cost and to what end? Once the Marines fight their way ashore and take their objective, they will be on an island with limited cover, very close to hostile Iran. How long could the Marines hold this island, under bombardment, before they would need to be withdrawn? "As for the danger, I think of amphibious assault as being akin to airborne assault. A lot of this depends on the tactical advantage of speed and surprise. "What the Marines are working against here is that everyone knows they're coming. And there are only so many places that are suitable for a landing. Need a suitable approach, favorable tides, etc. the Iranians understand this and will plan for it. "It is reasonable to expect that they will try to attack the transports en route, that they will attack while the ships unload, that they will attack the landing craft while they move from the ships to the beach, and that the troops will be attacked as they assault from the beach to their objectives. "Once the Marines are at their objective, they'll be attacked there too because Iran, and any other interested party to the conflict, will know exactly where the Marines are. "We're also 13 years removed from major combat operations in GWOT. There are still combat veterans at middle and upper echelons, but the majority of troops are not combat veterans. They're new guys."

@IDF Whoever runs this account should be sent to the Hague along with most of the Knesset. We need Nuremberg-style trials for the Israeli state.

❗️What you see here is the result of Iranian missile fire. The Old City in Jerusalem, right near the Temple Mount, was impacted by Iranian missile fragments. The Iranian regime once again proves they fire indiscriminately—whether at civilian areas or holy sites—all with the intention of destroying the State of Israel.

@SiriusBlack1321 @Cernovich @JackPosobiec When you win big, do you have to ask china for military assistance?

@Cernovich @JackPosobiec We are winning BIG and the people saying otherwise are the exact same people that said tariffs would collapse the economy. TDS

Chinese telegram groups are posting real time satellite images. We are two weeks behind, per a government mandate ordering satellite companies to withhold updates for at least 14 days.

@SeanDawkins15 @Cernovich How did Hegseth manage that considering he drinks himself to sleep

@Cernovich The Department of War gave an update this morning at 8am. But believe Chinese telegram groups instead.

@Israel Fuck off

We wish Eid al-Fitr Mubarak to all our Muslim friends in Israel and around the world #EidMubarak. May this holiday bring peace, joy, and shared hope for brighter days ahead.

@JohnInMSP @balajis What part of the 8d hyperchess is begging china to help open the strait that their ally is blocking

@balajis Yeah! I’m betting you’re a moron. Your drivel sounds like somebody playing checkers while the Trump administration is playing a game beyond chess that you don’t understand.

I'm going to make some obvious points. (1) Blowing up all the oil infrastructure in the Middle East is an insane idea, and may well result in a global economic crash and humanitarian crisis unrivaled in the lives of those now living. We're talking about the price of everything everywhere rising, from food to gas, at a moment when inflation was already high. All of that will be laid at the feet of the authors of this war. (2) The antebellum status quo of Feb 27, 2026 was just not that bad, but we're unlikely to return to it. Expect indefinite, long-term, ongoing disruptions to everything out of the Middle East. (3) Also assume tech financing crashes for the indefinite future. The genius plan to get the Gulf states caught in the crossfire has incinerated much of the funding for LPs, for datacenters, and for IPOs. Anyone in tech who supported this war may soon learn the meaning of "force majeure" as funding gets yanked. (4) Many capital allocators will instead be allocating much further down Maslow's hierarchy of needs, towards useful basic things like food and energy. (5) It's fortunate that all those progressives yelled about the "climate crisis." Yes, their reasoning about timelines was wrong, and much of the money was wasted in graft, but the result was right: we all need energy independence from the Middle East, pronto. It's also fortunate that Elon and China autistically took climate seriously. Now they're going to need to ship a billion solar panels, electric vehicles, batteries, nuclear power plants, and the like to get everyone off oil, immediately. (6) It's not just an oil and gas problem, of course. It's also a fertilizer problem, and a chemical precursor problem. Maybe some new sources will come online at the new prices, but it takes time to dial stuff up, particularly at this scale, so shortages are almost a certainty. That said, China has actually scaled up coal-to-chemicals[a,c] (C2C), and there's also something more sci-fi called Power-to-X[b] which turns arbitrary power + water + air into hydrocarbons. But all of that will need to get accelerated. I have a background in chemical engineering so may start funding things in this area. (7) Ultimately, this war is going to result in tremendous blame for anyone associated with it. It's a no-win scenario to blow up this much infrastructure for so many people. Simply not worth it for whatever objective they thought they were going to attain. But unless you're actually in a position to stop the madness, the pragmatic thing to do is: scramble to mitigate the fallout to yourself, your business, and your people. [a]: reuters.com/business/energ… [b]: alfalaval.com/industries/ene… [c]: reuters.com/sustainability…

@Jay2three @TheDailyShow I am not saying whether this would be good for the region. I am saying that this is the only realistic option for reopening the strait of Hormuz. Iran has the leverage and there is nothing the US can do for the next month at least except for conceding to their demands.

you know its a good question when you got all the agents thinkin 😅 but for the record , we have alot of middle east people that love our bases there . go ahead , take a poll , i know you love polls . and the ones who dont , see them as Isreal bases . what happens if we leave ? dum dum

The Pentagon is cooking up some creative strategies to open the Strait of Hormuz

@keithamccluske1 @YourAnonCentral Just like in Vietnam👍

@YourAnonCentral No one said that’s what they will do. We don’t telegraph our moves. So you’re guessing. What ever we do will be successful.

The idea being floated around by Trump circles is that sending a small contingent of US troops only to Iran’s shores will reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Also the shores in question…

@BuddOfCourse @TheDailyShow 130, and no, the US does not have the resources, no one does. They would all be attacked by drones and short range ballistic missiles. It would be completely suicidal.

@TheDailyShow How many tankers pass through on an average day? Don't the Americans have enough resources just to provide ARMED ESCORT ships?

@Jay2three @TheDailyShow Leave the middle east with your tail between your legs, give Iran massive concession in the form of sanctions relief to convince them that they have done enough damage to you to consider reopening the Strait.

@TheDailyShow lol funny video , 😅 but whats your suggestions wise guy ?

@CynicalPublius Who else than an idiot would ask China to help open the strait of Hormuz

One of Donald Trump's superpowers is that his highly "credentialed" opponents believe he is an idiot. It's glorious.

@OilfieldSlanger @TheEconomist Who wouldn't be anti-american at this point. Your pedophile president goes to war for "fun"

@TheEconomist It’s called guerilla warfare but thanks for the anti American opinion piece

Although Donald Trump says he has “destroyed 100% of Iran’s Military Capability”, the 0% that apparently remains is playing havoc with the global economy by choking off 10-15% of its oil supply economist.com/united-states/…

@BiggyMike67 @farrlover If Iran is losing why did trump ask china to help open the strait of hormuz

@farrlover A lot of talk coming from the losing team.

@DLCampanile Are you stupid?

Phil hasn't met too many Marines, has he now?

@Bensam123TV @tmuxvim Consider this: if I wrote down your name on a piece of paper, and whenever I referred to you I always had to look at the paper, had I learned your name? No. Learning "like a human" would mean that my neurons are updated to store this information. The context window is the note.

@Bensam123TV @tmuxvim I very specifically said that LLMs are not trained during conversations. You have not shown any proof that they are, for the simple fact that they are not. You are confused about what learning and training means in the context of AI models. Neither happens during conversation.

has anyone else noticed that GPT-5.4 often ends its responses with like, clickbait? it often promise to reveal "the one surprising X that will do Y" or something like that

You don't see broke people wearing barrels with suspenders anymore

@Doranimated How to become a billionare: make a startup that makes 1 billion dollars.

My latest. Bottom line: the drone and missile teams must be crushed. As long as they are intact and firing, the Iranian threat continues.

@DJKitty13063031 @NoAlphaLimits @GraceSm16250397 Oil is globally traded dumbass. American oil companies do sell to you at a discount because you are a such a nice little american patriot, they sell to the highest bidder.

@NoAlphaLimits @GraceSm16250397 We have plenty….let Europe worry about this…they do not want to help…so who cares?

🚨🚨🚨 ISRAEL JUST MADE THE SINGLE MOST DANGEROUS MILITARY DECISION OF THE ENTIRE WAR. AND NOBODY UNDERSTANDS WHAT THEY JUST TRIGGERED. 🚨🚨🚨 Israel and the U.S. struck South Pars — the LARGEST gas field on the planet. But here's what they either didn't know or didn't care about: South Pars is jointly managed by Iran AND Qatar. They didn't just attack Iran. They attacked the energy backbone of their OWN Gulf allies. Let that sink in. 💀 The IRGC just declared ALL major energy facilities across the entire GCC as "direct and legitimate targets" — and warned strikes are coming in the "COMING HOURS." 💀 Listed targets: Qatar's LNG complex, Saudi Aramco facilities, UAE oil terminals — EVERYTHING. 💀 Saudi Aramco has already EVACUATED workers from the SAMREF refinery in Yanbu. They're not waiting. They KNOW what's coming. 💀 Iranian hackers have ALREADY hit Aramco's digital systems — posting images and issuing threats to PARALYZE their infrastructure. 💀 Multiple EXPLOSIONS just heard in Riyadh — confirmed by Reuters, AFP, and AP. Sirens sounding in the Saudi capital. Do you understand the scale of what's happening? ⚠️ Qatar's LNG complex is the LARGEST on Earth. It supplies 30% of the world's liquefied natural gas. If Iran hits it — Europe's heating supply DISAPPEARS overnight. Not in months. OVERNIGHT. ⚠️ Saudi Aramco is the most valuable company on the PLANET — worth $1,800,000,000,000. Its refineries process 12 MILLION barrels per day. One successful strike takes 10% of the world's oil OFFLINE. ⚠️ In 2019, a SINGLE drone attack on Saudi Aramco's Abqaiq facility knocked out 5.7 million barrels per day and sent oil up 15% in ONE session. Iran now has 10x the motivation and NOTHING left to lose. They're showing you "precision strikes on Iranian targets." They're NOT showing you that those strikes just gave Iran the JUSTIFICATION to destroy every oil facility from Qatar to Saudi Arabia to the UAE. Here's the logic — follow it carefully: → You bomb a gas field that's JOINTLY OWNED with Qatar → Qatar — your own Gulf ally — publicly condemns you → Iran uses the attack as justification to target ALL Gulf energy → IRGC formally declares Gulf facilities as "legitimate targets" → Aramco starts EVACUATING refineries → Explosions hit RIYADH → You didn't weaken Iran. You gave them the excuse to burn down the ENTIRE Gulf's economy. If this was a "strategic victory," why is Aramco evacuating workers RIGHT NOW? If Iran's military is "degraded," why are 6 Gulf nations scrambling to protect their oil fields from an attack they believe is IMMINENT? Complete silence. You don't evacuate the world's most valuable company unless you KNOW what's coming. The IRGC said "coming hours." Not days. Not weeks. HOURS. And every Gulf state just went from spectator to TARGET. This is no longer a war between the U.S. and Iran. This is a war that's about to ERASE the Gulf's entire energy infrastructure — the infrastructure that powers HALF the planet. Prepare accordingly. 🚨🚨🚨 They don't want you seeing this. Follow + RT to beat the algorithm. 🚨