ทวีตที่ปักหมุด
An Analyst 🔰
4.5K posts
An Analyst 🔰
@Python_ch1
Lawyer by profession, trader by passion.
DOES NOT MATTER. เข้าร่วม Kasım 2016
167 กำลังติดตาม2.8K ผู้ติดตาม
#BTC
Bitcoin continues to cluster underneath the base of the Macro Triangle price broke down from months ago
More, Bitcoin is building a multi-month cluster of price action beneath the Triangle, very similar to the 2014 cluster
However history suggests price won't be able to reclaim the Macro Triangle (black) and this current cluster will resolve itself via distribution to the downside over time
$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
Rekt Capital@rektcapital
#BTC Whenever Bitcoin breaks down from its Macro Triangles (black), price tends to retrace until it forms a Bear Market bottom over time But the manner in which Bitcoin does this is different from cycle to cycle In 2018 and 2022 for instance, the Macro Triangle breakdown led to very rapid Bearish Acceleration until the final Bear Market Bottom accumulation period But what we are seeing now is more akin to the 2014 Macro Triangle, where price is consolidating beneath the Triangle base (orange) If Bitcoin continues to mirror 2014 then price could still continue to consolidate a bit more but the base of its current Triangle (~$82500) would be the ceiling for Bitcoin Furthermore, Bitcoin tends to build major consolidation periods on breakdowns from Macro Triangles (orange boxes) In 2018 and 2022, these major consolidation periods developed at Bear Market bottoms Whereas in 2014, Bitcoin built two such periods: just beneath the Macro Triangle it broke down from and then later at its respective Bear Market Bottom If history repeats, this current consolidation period could precede additional Macro Downside over time and the next major consolidation period would develop around the Bear Market Bottom $BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
English
So we’re in the process of testing 80K.
Just remember, don’t get too euphoric at that level, there’s not much upside left from there.
Alejandro₿TC@Alejandro_XBT
This is how I see it playing out: > BTC squeezes higher (80K+) > Everyone turns bullish again > Sudden breakdown > “Buy the dip” everywhere > Market pulls the rug Classic cycle psychology. Don’t confuse relief with strength.
English
Accept that trading is a business where uncertainty is the rule, not the exception.
English
wlfi has just posted a governance proposal, while the daily RSI is at a level that has previously led to relief rallies.
3 days later and a base has formed around this level. Let's see how it reacts here.🫡
The market outlook is generally positive right now.
𝕄𝕠𝕦𝕤𝕥𝕒𝕔ⓗ𝕖 🧲@el_crypto_prof
Putting the FUD aside, the last two times the daily RSI for wlfi reached levels this low, it was followed by a relief rally. As always, nfa but let's see.🫡BTC is already leading the way.
English
The Nasdaq is up 12 days in a row.
Only a few occassions we've seen this happening.
What does that mean for $BTC?
Why is $BTC not following with the same strength?
#Bitcoin is definitely broken and lost its premise!
In this post, I'll give some statistical data on what I expect is likely going to happen.
The only few occassions that we've seen happening with Nasdaq doing this move in strength upwards, while Bitcoin was a, relatively, mature asset:
- July 2013
- July 2017
- Now
That doesn't give many examples, although we can generally look at the frameworks surrounding both of the assets.
If you're solely analyzing those moments in time, the outcome would be magnificent.
In 2013: $BTC trended 1,000% higher six months later.
In 2017: $BTC trended 400% higher six months later.
That's not the core of this post and realization that I wanted to provide in this update.
Bitcoin is a high-beta, and riskier asset than the Nasdaq.
I want to clarify that statement.
Bitcoin, fundamentally, is the best store-of-value we've ever had.
It doesn't mean that it acts like that in terms of price fluctuations. As a matter of fact, the volatility has been significantly higher over time and traders/investors need to price that volatility.
If an asset is more riskier than the other, then:
- If there's uncertainty in the world --> the riskier asset will be sold off the fastest.
- If there's more certainty in the world --> the riskier asset will be bought later.
As an example:
Gold has seen a tremendous rally in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026. As a result, the other asset in that same bucket was required to be sold off due to the volatility of Gold.
Therefore, Bitcoin crashed downwards in January / February to hedge that vol.
Additionally, we've seen Oil break out and such, causing Nasdaq to follow Bitcoin's path.
Currently, we're seeing that Bitcoin isn't following the Nasdaq with the strength that it should be doing, and that's solely due to the nature of the asset itself.
Let's look at the latest rallies of the Nasdaq:
- Q4 2020: $NQ up 15%
- Q1 2023: $NQ up 20%
- Q4 2023: $NQ up 15%
- Q1 2024: $NQ up 12%
In all of these events, Bitcoin followed through.
The difference? There was an average lag of 2-3 weeks, and then it moves with a significantly higher Beta.
- Q4 2020: Bitcoin ran from $10K to $29K
- Q1 2023: Bitcoin ran from $16K to $28K
- Q4 2023: Bitcoin ran from $27K to $44K
- Q1 2024: Bitcoin ran from $42K to $73K
Bitcoin outperforms the Nasdaq in upside by an average of 4-6x the Beta.
However, it needs more certainty to be moving along with the Nasdaq.
As a conclusion of this longer post, I wouldn't be on the short side of the markets.
With everything that's been happening; Gold, Oil, Nasdaq and now Bitcoin, I would suggest that Bitcoin is severely undervalued in the basket of all assets and is likely going upwards.
My base case would be that we're seeing a rally to $85-88K as a first test, but if the Nasdaq continues to go up, I wouldn't be surprised if we're going to be seeing a $BTC trending towards ATHs in Q4 of 2026.
English
Stablecoin dominance will likely sweep the low from March, then head higher into the summer months.
Benjamin Cowen@benjamincowen
After the current consolidation, it looks like stablecoin dominance will go higher into the summer months
English
I m not an candlestick expert but yesterday $BTC candle closed pretty good no?
English
@Nishant_Bliss I don't understand why people take trump statement so seriously. if you really know how to read technicals and analyze charts, I don't think a good trader should be affected by that. personally I don't even notice when trump makes a statement cuz charts behave normal to me.
English
$BTC Heatmap
Liquidity beginning to stack up below us. Do we sweep this before we get that leg up to the highs.
English
As long as the VIX continues to fall, and we're in a new equilibrium, where oil volatility goes down, Gold volatility significantly drops.
What will you start to see?
More inflows in the $BTC ETF as allocators can allocate more towards #Bitcoin.
This week, so far: +$300 million, and I would assume this strengthens the lower the VIX goes.
That would also benefit #Altcoins and $ETH, as they'll follow the path of Bitcoin.
In that case, I see a strong case for Bitcoin continuing the rally to $85-88K in coming 2-4 weeks.
English
$BTC / $USD - Update
$77,000 and $70,500 are your two main levels to focus on. In between is noise.
English
While trading, you’re not paid for activity.
You’re paid for accuracy.
More trades ≠ more money.
Better trades = better results.
When investing, accuracy still matters, but to a lesser degree. Here Time & patience are your biggest friends.
English
$BTC
Not predicting blindly here but we saw price ranging and took out highs, made range again.
BTC swept sell side, absorbed into the 15m SCB and order flow flipped bullish. Most of you hadn't even opened your charts yet but we can see its same pattern here.
Weekly pivot at 77K is the target. Not a guess but Structure.
Soft Invalidation below 73,700.
English
Morgan Stanley launching a 0.14% fee Bitcoin ETF in the same week that Schwab announces a venue for direct trading of $BTC & $ETH
Normally the kind of stuff you saw at bull market tops.
These days, it happens in the middle of a bear market.
Bitcoin is truly going mainstream.
English