2 new quantum computing papers just dropped. Is crypto cooked? Google says they designed quantum circuits that could break ECC in a few minutes with 500,000 physical qubits: a 20-fold reduction from previous work. Oratomic says they could break ECC in a few days with 26,000 neutral-atom physical qubits. These papers both show advancements in algorithmic efficiency and quantum computing theory, but one should not overlook the assumptions underlying these claims. The authors have improved upon techniques shown to work at small scale, but we have no proof they can be scaled up. In other words, we're at the stage where scientists have created a few transistors but are still trying to figure out how to fabricate a fully functioning silicon chip with tons of transistors working together simultaneously. Progress is clearly continuing. How long do we have before a cryptographically relevant quantum computer can be built? That's still anyone's guess.
