Quartz Sea Research

Return on capital in European chemicals: lowest point in 25+ years. Operating rates at 70%, far below the 81.3% historically required for margin sustainability. Structural issue. Read our primer 👇 quartz-sea.com/primer-the-eur…

Eurenco secured a €300mn syndicated loan, the largest financing of its kind for a defense chemical, to build a new MACS plant in Slovakia. Online 2028. Output: several hundred thousand artillery charge units annually. Read our primer 👇

This development can't be understated: whether this leads to de-escalation or reinforces strategic autonomy, the implications for defense budgets and sovereign capability buildouts are very significant. Hypothetically, given the 2030 NATO target is €635bn (3.5% GDP): - De-escalation: slower growth, still reaching €550-600bn by 2030 (procurement commitments already locked in) - Strategic autonomy: business as usual, we surpass the target (our baseline projects 5%)

Sweden’s NATO integration has shattered the political glass ceiling: this means unprecedented access to high-growth procurement markets in Central and Eastern Europe. Read our report: quartz-sea.com/the-scaling-of… @Saab

On average, most defense outlays take place in the first year of a boom, and nearly all additional spending is completed within three years of the boom's onset.

QuartzSea Research initiates coverage on SAAB AB (SAAB.B-SE) 🔹Rating: Outperform 🔹Target: SEK 602.61 Full report available here 👉 quartz-sea.com/the-scaling-of… @Saab

@wartranslated 2.8m drones at €2k each = €5.6bn in FPV drone procurement alone: that's roughly 233k units per month through EOY, well above current European production capacity. Long Saab? We think so We recently mapped the European missiles/UAVs ecosystem 👇 quartz-sea.com/the-european-i…

Around €30 billion from the EU's €90 billion loan for Ukrainian forces in 2026 will go to drones, ammunition, missiles including long-range, and air defense systems per Evropeyska Pravda sources. The first batch will buy 2.8 million drones at roughly €2,000 each.

European natural gas prices: 2.5x to 3.0x higher than the US. Ethylene production in Europe: costs 3.2x more than North America. Ammonia production: 3.5x to 4.0x cost multiplier. The energy gap isn't closable.

Last week, the ECB held rates at 2.0%. Lagarde called it "informed but based on insufficient information", but the truth is that raising rates can't produce oil or clear chokepoints. But it can worsen growth further. quartz-sea.com/to-hike-or-not…

The European missile sector: consolidated, high-volume, scaling fast. The UAV sector: fragmented, experimental, software-intensive. Two distinct industrial logistics, but shared supply chains. quartz-sea.com/the-european-i…

Germany's defense spending in Jan–Feb 2026 vs 2025: +43.2% Total government spending growth: +5.2% Defense is growing 8x faster than the rest of the budget. This isn't a one-time adjustment: it's a permanent shift in the German budgetary psyche. quartz-sea.com/the-global-war…

The ECB is trapped in a poetic position: inflation surging because goods can't move, the economy stalling because consumers can't buy. And raising rates won't clear the Strait of Hormuz. quartz-sea.com/to-hike-or-not…

Return on capital in European chemicals: lowest point in 25+ years. Operating rates at 70%, far below the 81.3% historically required for margin sustainability. Structural issue. Read our primer 👇 quartz-sea.com/primer-the-eur…

@grindingmacro Absolutely, it has been added to the queue. Ideally, covered by EOM

@QuartzResearch It looks quite interesting indeed, right?

Finnish $SUMMA preparing to scale in Ukraine reconstruction market — which is estimated at $600 billion — through its tractor product, which recently received a €35 million order from an European NATO member state. Quite great news for this small but growing company.

Scandinavian Astor Group $ASTOR: Q1'26 revenue SEK 130M — the 2nd highest quarter on record (74% growth LTM). Order backlog roughly 3× where it was three years ago, profit margin doubled to a record 21%, SEK 248M of cash with zero net debt. The Nordic rearmament theme is real 🇸🇪

The Pentagon's R&D allocation: $179bn in 2025, a 27% YoY increase. 1) $13.4bn toward autonomous systems. 2) $3.1bn for counter-drone systems. The US is prioritizing the "brains and nervous systems" of warfare over legacy platforms. Read our report 👇 quartz-sea.com/the-global-war…

Global defense expenditure: $2.63tn in 2025, projected to exceed $3.6tn by 2030. The steepest sustained increase in military spending since the end of the Cold War. Read our report 👇 quartz-sea.com/the-global-war…