Patrick
144 posts
Don’t even think of calls unless $648.1 $SPY is taken back
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One of the worst feelings as an option seller is when you sell puts (CSP or PCS) so far otm, beyond even the implied move for the week…
And it still finds a way to get ITM.
Well that is $META for me today.
Fml.
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I'm telling you guys... Even if I buy small cap $170 Billion dollar companies like $ARM.
They just go up 20% like $TSEM or $SIVE the next day as well?
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
@wemillionaire I did buy shares at ~$139-$141. I did think it should have been up more than 3% if they're multiplying their revenue from a new product.
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$RDDT is getting ridiculous.
Looks completely mispriced. Now down 40% over the past few months.
If you strip out carry-forward losses, their net profit is ~28% of revenue, which is absolutely enormous.
And they’re growing forward revenues 50%+ Y/Y after 70%+ Y/Y growth.
If you ever look at $META, you know how much revenue can be optimized/user. There’s an incredibly high ceiling for monetization with Reddit.
It’s already derisked since IPO since Reddit is now one of the fastest growing and highest margin companies in the market.
One day if it pulls a $CRCL post earnings,
we’ll look back and wonder how this was valued at $24 billion MC.
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Feels good to be early.. $AAOI
Feels even better knowing the real asymmetry continues with multiple layers deep in the photonics supply chain..
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@aleabitoreddit The InP bottleneck thesis is real. Demand for photonics is not cyclical hype it’s structural.
The next winners won’t just ride volume they’ll control chokepoints or change the architecture.
That’s where the real upside remains.
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After earnings, $AAOI could easily be a $25B-$30B company next year from $5B if they hit their projections.
And they're one of the only "Made in America" (Sugarland, Texas) companies out of
- $LITE (global)
- $COHR (global)
- $FN (Thai)
- $AVGO (global)
- Innolight (China), and Eoptolink (China).
So they likely get that "America" premium like $INTC compared to $TSM and $MU compared to Sk Hynix.
But from revenue:
FY Revenue: $456 million
2027 ARR by : $4.536B (~900%+ growth).
Off high 30's - low 40% projected margins + hyperscaler qualifications.
This is wild. But there was a $250M ATM, but that's typically pennies compared to the projection.
This part is extremely interesting:
-> Management stated that demand and capacity for 800G, 1.6T modules could surge nearly 10x by mid-2027.
This is also a large tailwind for epiwafer companies too like $IQE and Landmark and more upstream like $AXTI.
$AAOI is a core hold over 2026-2027, but there's always execution risks if they can deliver.
$25-30B MC projections sound surreal but that's how wild the earnings was if they hit $4.35B ARR, off 900%+ growth (and photonics scale up is likely to continue even further into 2028-2029)
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Holy $AAOI … Just putting it out there they’re projecting $378 million in monthly revenue for transceivers. At a $5.5B MC. This is the definition of extreme scale up. Although margins are different, $AAOI projections would actually surpass $LITE next quarter guidance by 40%: "Given the recent surge in customer inquiries and apparent rising demand, we believe that by mid-2027, 100G and 400G revenue will be approximately $90 million. 800G revenue will be approximately $217 million and 1.6 terabit revenue will be approximately $71 million monthly. Altogether, this represents $378 million in monthly revenue for transceiver products." Absolutely unholy projections unseen since $SNDK earnings.
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@mikealfred How diversified is your portfolio? How many stocks are you invested in?
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@CyclesWithBach What do you mean pricing in? Shouldn't stocks go up?
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$NVDA now red on the day... don't say there weren't warnings
Jim Cramer@jimcramer
Master class? Clinic? How about a beatdown of all the accusatory ahistorical minds out there who just don't get the future.. In the battle between the Luddites and the Nvidians, go with the latter.
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@StockMKTNewz Why do you think the 2x etf is up twice as much as the stock? Hmm 🤔🤔
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$ETH’s value moves in lockstep with high quality assets it secures
Our Co-CEO @joechalom explaining $ETH’s value trajectory on the @bankless podcast
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🚨 Heisenberg Observation 🚨
Alright fam, as we end August and enter September, I want to deliver a near perfect stat for you. I'm going to deliver alpha with this one. An almost guaranteed trade with a near 100% win rate in last 20 years.
Ready?
September 11th. Never forget that day.
How did $SPY trade on every September 11th (or if it fell on a weekend, the next trading day)? Well let's see:
2024: +1.03%
2023: +.66%
2022: +1.07%
2021: +.26%
2020: +.05%
2019: +.71%
2018: +.33%
2017: +1.07%
2016: +1.43%
2015: +.45%
2014: +.11%
2013: +.31%
2012: +.28%
2011: +.65%
2010: +1.11%
2009: -.02% (only red, but essentially flat)
2008: +1.45% (even in the heart of the GFC!)
2007: +1.17%
2006: +.1%
13 trading days left until Sept. 11th. Do not short on that day. It will be "Un-American".
-Heis
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Did I post about $RDDT enough?
Revenue: +78% YoY
EPS: $0.45 vs $0.20 est
EBITDA: $185M-$195M vs. $159.5M est
DAU +21% YoY
FCF +$84M YoY
Smashed guidance
AI data monster.
This is what the kids call a blowout, Reddit is emerging as the clear #2 in social media after $META.
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@KobeissiLetter How do we know “The White House” is telling the truth?
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BREAKING: The White House says this is “fake news.”
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter
BREAKING: The US Department of Justice told President Trump in May that his name is in the Epstein Files, per WSJ.
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Things are going so good even $DNUT and $DENN are popping.
Junk stocks. I mean junk foods.
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