Rota Fortunae

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Rota Fortunae

Rota Fortunae

@RFortunae

Frequent short seller. Building badass financial software = @fridayfurnace Everything here is my opinion. Do your own due diligence.

Dallas, TX เข้าร่วม Mayıs 2016
195 กำลังติดตาม9.5K ผู้ติดตาม
Rota Fortunae
Rota Fortunae@RFortunae·
@ericjackson All companies use SBC but only high flying tech or dog shit companies have 81% of their free cash flow come from SBC. And you still haven’t admitted that you got the $345M free cash flow number wrong like you got the insider buys wrong. You are a 🤡. $pton
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Eric Jackson
Eric Jackson@ericjackson·
All companies use SBC. Even without it, the PTON comps to CHWY, ROKU, and SONO make it look just as cheap. Still FCF-positive. Still lowering churn. Thesis remains the same.
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Rota Fortunae
Rota Fortunae@RFortunae·
Market up 1% on Trump leaving Hormuz in the hands of Iran for others start a war to open it back up. Winning!
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter

PRESIDENT TRUMP: “All of those countries that can’t get jet fuel because of the Strait of Hormuz, like the United Kingdom, which refused to get involved in the decapitation of Iran, I have a suggestion for you: Number 1, buy from the U.S., we have plenty, and Number 2, build up some delayed courage, go to the Strait, and just TAKE IT. You’ll have to start learning how to fight for yourself, the U.S.A. won’t be there to help you anymore, just like you weren’t there for us. Iran has been, essentially, decimated. The hard part is done. Go get your own oil!”

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Rota Fortunae
Rota Fortunae@RFortunae·
@ericjackson $pton pump already fading. Maybe people realize that insiders are actually dumping not buying, free cash flow if not $345M and if he did read every conference call he apparently did not see they say FCF guide is materially lower… before you account for $224M in stock comp.
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Rota Fortunae
Rota Fortunae@RFortunae·
Thanks for playing $pton
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Rota Fortunae
Rota Fortunae@RFortunae·
I’m new to the @ericjackson pump but I hope to shit that he isn’t done trying. Would love to point out more of his nonsense. $pton
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Rota Fortunae
Rota Fortunae@RFortunae·
There are other issues with the thesis. I will address in response to every promotional post he makes in $PTON. Yes I am short. So do your own due diligence. Don't follow anyone blindly particularly if they are making statements that are not verifiably correct. 5/5
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Rota Fortunae
Rota Fortunae@RFortunae·
He said he read the calls, but if he did then why is he saying the free cash flow is $345M. The last call clearly says free cash flow guidance is "at least $275M". 4/x $PTON
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Rota Fortunae
Rota Fortunae@RFortunae·
@ericjackson put out a thread and article last week for a long thesis on $pton. His pinned post is this. Do they have $345M in free cash for, did insiders buy and did he really read all the calls? Let's take a look 1/x
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James Chanos
James Chanos@RealJimChanos·
65% of that “free cash flow” ($224M in LTM) was from equity issuance (Share-Based Compensation). Shares outstanding were up 9% Y/Y last quarter. And of course there is net debt of over $300M at $PTON, not net cash. No position, but this is a disingenuous framing.
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Eric Jackson@ericjackson

I’m long Peloton at $4. $345M in free cash flow. $1.18B in cash (67% of market cap). 7 insiders bought in the last 90 days. I read every earnings call. Here’s what I found.

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Rota Fortunae
Rota Fortunae@RFortunae·
Every time @ericjackson puts out a post on $pton I will point out the misinformation. This thesis is a well spring of bullshit. After saying $pton insiders have been buying shares with real cash @ericjackson says he read the firm 4 wrong… although he still didn’t acknowledge that they were not just option exercises but all sales. Literally the entire mgmt team has been selling for years. The CFO who just left who he said bought has literally sold almost every share she got her hands on and now that the company goes from RSUs to PSUs she bails. Eric misses this and you believe he read every conference call in detail? Or did he run it through his proprietary AI that searches for words like “foundational”. He says sales turned up last quarter after being down the previous two quarters. Actually year over year it was worse. They only turned up sequentially because it was the holiday quarter. Happens every year.
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Eric Jackson@ericjackson

A lot of people asked for this. So I unlocked yesterday’s premium PTON deep dive. — This is how I actually break down a turnaround: •transcripts •churn math •valuation •what confirms or breaks it on May 8 I don’t usually post this level publicly. Day 221.

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Rota Fortunae
Rota Fortunae@RFortunae·
@ericjackson It’s not real. Either you haven’t done any work or you are straight up making shit up.
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Eric Jackson
Eric Jackson@ericjackson·
A few people asked why I dropped a 9,000-word Peloton piece today. Friday. Market down. Nobody paying attention. — Good ideas don’t wait for the right day. They show up when they show up. — If it’s real, people will find it.
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