Riddle Russia

For @RiddleRussia, @ntrickett16 does a weekly Russian economic news analysis. Today's piece clearly states that extra Iran-related oil cash is not fixing the many war-related problems. Russian economy is in recession that is only going to get worse. ridl.io/off-the-rails/

For anyone curious about the Russian economy on the ground...

As hesitant as one may be to make claims about a system as complex as 🇷🇺 economy, it has not entered stagflation. It is much worse: 🇷🇺 economy resembles a systemic balance-sheet recession, one that will likely be worsened by side effects of war with Iran ridl.io/off-the-rails/

Andrey Pertsev, @RiddleRussia regular contributor and author of our weekly political news analysis segment is as of today wanted by the Russian state. Essentially that means(among other things) that his stuff is good. Follow his work here ridl.io/auth/andrey-pe…

The likelihood of 🇷🇺 suffering a military defeat— like Nazi Germany is effectively zero (because nukes). Can 🇷🇺 opposition in exile play a meaningful role in the defeat of Putin’s regime? Is it even possible for them to play a role in what comes after? ridl.io/how-to-kill-or…

Through the Telegram posts of Ilja Remeslo, a Z-blogger who has suddenly turned critical of Putin, @fa_burkhardt sheds more light on the workings of the Putin system than many analyses of Kremlin affairs. A must-read! ridl.io/from-z-blogger…

Recently, one of tmost popular pro-Putin bloggers who for years pushed pure Kremlin narratives turned against Putin using no kind words. Did he go nuts or did his sponsor change? @fa_burkhardt for @RiddleRussia looks at his TG dynamics of the last 4y ridl.io/from-z-blogger…

@MarkGaleotti @ABarbashin @fa_burkhardt Dear Mr. Galeotti, This was Riddle’s editors’ choice of wording. It was based not on follower count, but on the volume of media mentions he received due to his prominent role in the Navalny case. (Note: This phrasing is only for the X post and does not appear in the article.)

@ABarbashin @fa_burkhardt @RiddleRussia It's an interesting article, but can one really describe someone with 90,000 followers as "one of the most popular pro-P bloggers"? I feel there has been something of an inflation of Remeslo's status in coverage since he broke ranks

.@fa_burkhardt here analyzed the entire history of Telegram activity of Ilya Remeslo - avid pro-Putin pro-war propagandist who turned against Putin Clearly, it's not a sudden change of heart. Plenty of intra-elite conflict elements involved. ridl.io/from-z-blogger…

If one follows sanctions logic consistently, pressure should also be increased on countries that help Russia circumvent sanctions. It would make sense to extend entire sanctions package (except personal ones) to countries of Eurasian Economic Union. ridl.io/when-oil-outwe…

.@ntrickett16 is pouring cold water on the idea that sustained high oil prices from 🇮🇷 war can meaningfully fix 🇷🇺 economy. It might provide some temporary relief but 🇷🇺 deep structural problems cannot be solved without ending the war in 🇺🇦 ridl.io/til-the-money-…

Money is not the real constraint facing Russia in its war on Ukraine. True constraints are inflation and ability to mobilize physical resources — manpower, goods, weapons, and ammunition. Nothing in last 3 weeks has changed that brutal calculus for Moscow ridl.io/til-the-money-…

Western #sanctions against Russia have a future only if their application becomes more dynamic, less predictable, and is calculated not merely to «tighten the economic screws» but also to destabilize the Putin regime politically. @Vladi_Moscou ridl.io/when-oil-outwe…

"Russia wanted a «multipolar» world order with negotiated spheres of influence. The Trump administration has delivered mercurial US hegemony" @BirgeLucy ridl.io/anti-hegemony-…

Trump's temporary lifting of #sanctions is not that important: Russia physically cannot ramp up deliveries. What matters far more is that the surge in global prices alone is enough to resolve most of the Kremlin’s recent budget headaches. @Vladi_Moscou ridl.io/when-oil-outwe…

Important to note: Russian Presidential Administration’s political bloc is from the outset building September Duma Elections campaign on the assumption that the war in Ukraine will continue throughout the entire Duma campaign period and on election day ridl.io/private-invest…

"While the US’s mercurial hegemony does not preclude scenarios that offer Russia short-term gains—not understanding the rules of the game, nor being able to pre-empt the ever-shifting priorities of USA, leaves Russia strategically paralyzed" @BirgeLucy ridl.io/anti-hegemony-…

How does the Presidential Administration of the Russian Federation manage the gubernatorial corps in the recent years? Are all current governors managers fully coordinated with Sergey Kiriyenko? Have any relatively “independent” heads of regions been preserved? New RuTa video

How much is Russia earning from the war in Iran? How much longer should this war continue for Russia to be able to substantially reduce the budget deficit? What changes need to be made to the sanctions regime to significantly complicate Russia’s conduct of the war in Ukraine?