2025 NBA redraft: Advanced stats love Kon Knueppel and Dylan Harper — and why Cooper Flagg isn’t No. 1 anymore.
@JerryEngelmann ranks the NBA rookies on future potential.
open.substack.com/pub/5x5basketb…
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Royce Webb
8.3K posts
Royce Webb
@RoyceWebb
Now: 🏀5x5 at Substack Before: ESPN
เข้าร่วม Mart 2009
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Royce Webb รีทวีตแล้ว
22-year old Victor Wembanyama will win this year's DPOY award, and many more
Might he already be the best defensive player of the last 30 years?
A look at historical advanced defensive metrics, and why he might soon be the best NBA player overall.
roycewebb.com/p/heres-how-cl…
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Royce Webb รีทวีตแล้ว
Here are the best defensive On-Off's since 1996/97
20-year old Kevin Garnett was something else, but Wembanyama isn't looking too shabby, either
x.com/JerryEngelmann…
Jeremias Engelmann@JerryEngelmann
22-year old Victor Wembanyama will win this year's DPOY award, and many more Might he already be the best defensive player of the last 30 years? A look at historical advanced defensive metrics, and why he might soon be the best NBA player overall. roycewebb.com/p/heres-how-cl…
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What’s transformed Wemby into potentially the NBA’s best player — and perhaps the greatest defensive force basketball has ever seen?
@JerryEngelmann drills down to find out exactly how Vic is smashing NBA standards, based on advanced stats & video:
open.substack.com/pub/5x5basketb…
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Royce Webb รีทวีตแล้ว
There may be some complementarity on offense (not significant), but it's more on defense. Wemby's D is better with Harper on, Harper's D is better with Wemby on.
Jeremias Engelmann@JerryEngelmann
Probably not great for the rest of the league that 22-year old Wemby + 20-year old Dylan Harper, when on the court together, are outscoring opponents by 25 points per 100 (2nd best pair in the NBA, minimum 500 minutes)
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Royce Webb รีทวีตแล้ว
The basic hypothesis is that teams still undervalue production relative to potential. Hence, we're lower on Darryn Peterson, for instance. But there's a lot of devil in the details about defining "production".
You can find our complete rankings here: natesilver.net/p/prism-2026-n…
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Royce Webb รีทวีตแล้ว
Probably not great for the rest of the league that
22-year old Wemby + 20-year old Dylan Harper,
when on the court together, are outscoring opponents by 25 points per 100
(2nd best pair in the NBA, minimum 500 minutes)
English
Royce Webb รีทวีตแล้ว
Part 4 of our (free) basketball analytics series:
How to adjust college stats for player age and strength-of-schedule
roycewebb.com/p/how-to-adjus…
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One of our daughter’s first words was “doggin” — her rendering of doggie — and we immediately added it to the lexicon
She also had some Elmo-branded earmuffs that she called “earmos” — obviously! — a term we still use to refer to all ear coverings
The Husky@Mr_Husky1
Admit it: Your kid mispronounced a word three years ago and now the whole family says it that way. What's the word in your house? (We still say 'pasketti' and I’m not stopping anytime soon.)
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Royce Webb รีทวีตแล้ว
I have just sent the weekly [sportsjobs] newsletter.
This is the short list of jobs I have just shared. Many were uploaded less then 48hs ago!
The earlier you apply, the better.
I also shared another great technical post from @JerryEngelmann
link below
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Royce Webb รีทวีตแล้ว
Wembanyama has already overtaken Tim Duncan and Ben Wallace in 30-year defensive RAPM -- a stat that wants to see large samples before being convinced
Dikembe Mutombo would be next. Can he get past Garnett?
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Royce Webb รีทวีตแล้ว
Is the ability to hit long threes in college an indicator for becoming an above NBA 3-point shooter?
Here are some of Cameron Carr's attempts
x.com/JerryEngelmann…
Jeremias Engelmann@JerryEngelmann
The draft's top-3 are seemingly set in stone. So who should fill the spots 4-through-10? Several freshmen guards, a german rebounding machine, and the son of a former NBA dunk-contest runner-up make their case. roycewebb.com/p/nba-draft-bo…
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NEW from @JerryEngelmann --
This NBA draft class has lots of talent in the mid-lottery, especially at point guard.
Ranking the top 10, with video:
open.substack.com/pub/5x5basketb…
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Royce Webb รีทวีตแล้ว
The draft's top-3 are seemingly set in stone.
So who should fill the spots 4-through-10?
Several freshmen guards, a german rebounding machine, and the son of a former NBA dunk-contest runner-up make their case.
roycewebb.com/p/nba-draft-bo…
English
Royce Webb รีทวีตแล้ว
This day has come so much sooner than I had anticipated
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Royce Webb รีทวีตแล้ว
Dybantsa, Boozer, or Peterson: Who should be the No. 1 pick in the stacked 2026 NBA draft?
A deep dive into the tape to unearth what the stats can't see
roycewebb.com/p/dybantsa-boo…
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NEW: @JerryEngelmann ranks the top 3 NBA prospects — AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer & Darryn Peterson — based on strengths, concerns, ceiling and floor.
NBA Draft's Top 3 Are Absolutely Elite — Here's how I would rank them
open.substack.com/pub/5x5basketb…
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