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Jeremias Engelmann
5.8K posts
Jeremias Engelmann
@JerryEngelmann
https://t.co/px0Oz4gG15 Basketball enthusiast. Creator of ESPN's Real Plus Minus. Formerly Suns, Mavericks
Katılım Temmuz 2014
31 Takip Edilen6.4K Takipçiler
@wessonmo I can't give a yes/no answer.
I think it's ~>50% that he keeps struggling with it.
That's strongly assuming that highschool and college coaches have already tried to teach him.
It's certainly rare to see such a big name struggle so much with a basic skill
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@JerryEngelmann So you think that’s going to be a difficult thing for him to learn?
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These would concern me if my team had a top-3 pick
(they're all from 1 game, and there's ~4 more travels I didn't clip. Every game looks this way)
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@wessonmo I'd imagine he's been playing basketball since age 3
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@JerryEngelmann Why? I can’t imagine it’ll be very hard to practice/learn not to travel.
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This day has come so much sooner than I had anticipated
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@BigBruhDer I think a lot of these are so blatant that the (more competent) NBA refs can't ignore them.
It'll also be pointed out by oppenents coaches, I'm sure
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You probably have heard that Cameron Boozer sports the highest BPM of all time
But what if college refs actually called any of his 6+ (and I'm not exaggerating) travels per game?
x.com/JerryEngelmann…
Jeremias Engelmann@JerryEngelmann
Dybantsa, Boozer, or Peterson: Who should be the No. 1 pick in the stacked 2026 NBA draft? A deep dive into the tape to unearth what the stats can't see roycewebb.com/p/dybantsa-boo…
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Jeremias Engelmann retweetledi
NEW: @JerryEngelmann ranks the top 3 NBA prospects — AJ Dybantsa, Cameron Boozer & Darryn Peterson — based on strengths, concerns, ceiling and floor.
NBA Draft's Top 3 Are Absolutely Elite — Here's how I would rank them
open.substack.com/pub/5x5basketb…
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Dybantsa, Boozer, or Peterson: Who should be the No. 1 pick in the stacked 2026 NBA draft?
A deep dive into the tape to unearth what the stats can't see
roycewebb.com/p/dybantsa-boo…
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Part 2 of our (free) technical series:
How to accurately predict NBA player stats, using machine learning and Bayesian models
Including HowTos on
- adjusting for teammate effects
- finding better priors
- deriving confidence intervals
roycewebb.com/p/how-to-accur…
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Jeremias Engelmann retweetledi
The NBA's Third Annual All-Fluff Team
@JerryEngelmann identifies five players whose stats make them look like superstars ... while their on-court impact is much worse.
Here are the five players who create the most empty calories.
open.substack.com/pub/5x5basketb…
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The Utah Jazz have ranked last defensively every season since they drafted Keyonte George
Here's how he compares to other players when it comes to impacting opponent shots around the basket
x.com/JerryEngelmann…
Jeremias Engelmann@JerryEngelmann
The 2026 All-Fluff Team is here. Players whose scoring stats look like superstars… but whose on-court impact says otherwise. Using APM vs. stat-based metrics, I break down the league’s biggest producers of empty calories. roycewebb.com/p/nba-all-fluf…
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How Banchero's 3p% compares to all other players who've taken at least 1,000 threes since he was drafted
x.com/JerryEngelmann…
Jeremias Engelmann@JerryEngelmann
The 2026 All-Fluff Team is here. Players whose scoring stats look like superstars… but whose on-court impact says otherwise. Using APM vs. stat-based metrics, I break down the league’s biggest producers of empty calories. roycewebb.com/p/nba-all-fluf…
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The 2026 All-Fluff Team is here.
Players whose scoring stats look like superstars… but whose on-court impact says otherwise.
Using APM vs. stat-based metrics, I break down the league’s biggest producers of empty calories.
roycewebb.com/p/nba-all-fluf…
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@BradChilmeran I think it's close to certain that he's had above average luck.
The question is how much of that +16 net rating does that explain.
The point I make it the article is that he seems to do certain things to help teammates perform better, which aren't captured by any stats
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@JerryEngelmann This metric suggests Hugo is one of the luckiest players in the league. But this metric could be interpreted to capture both offensive and defensive synergy, so it's far from conclusive
x.com/i/status/20303…
BBall Index@The_BBall_Index
Who have been the luckiest players this season? ⬆️More offensive luck ➡️More defensive luck This looks at teammates and opponents playing outside of their norms and how it effects a players on/off data
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Celtics rookie Hugo Gonzalez is absolutely killing it, according to everything +- (Net rating, On-Off, APM)
Is it just noise/luck?
Or is he the next "No Stats All Star"?
roycewebb.com/p/why-the-celt…
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Jeremias Engelmann retweetledi
Best 'Net Ratings' of the last 30 years:
x.com/JerryEngelmann…
Jeremias Engelmann@JerryEngelmann
Celtics rookie Hugo Gonzalez is absolutely killing it, according to everything +- (Net rating, On-Off, APM) Is it just noise/luck? Or is he the next "No Stats All Star"? roycewebb.com/p/why-the-celt…
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How Kon Knueppel stacks up to the rest of the rookie class in xRAPM
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The ability to throw creative passes is something I consider a strong predictor of NBA impact
In this draft class, no one throws more creative passes than Mikel Brown
x.com/JerryEngelmann…
Jeremias Engelmann@JerryEngelmann
Has Keaton Wagler passed Mikel Brown Jr. as a lottery prospect? The advanced stats say yes. The tape says… not so fast. A deep dive on two lottery guards, and why Wagler is a lesson to not blindly trust the stats and highlights roycewebb.com/p/nba-draft-an…
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