Miguel da Fonseca

@passedpawn Glad that you're enjoying my home country. ^_^

Boa noite, Porto Have a great weekend

@Jenny_1884 @OunkaOnX He's not sending them to Ukraine despite having valid arguments for it, so obviously he wouldn't send him on this idiotic crusade.

@OunkaOnX But he’d happily send them to Ukraine

Starmer just told Trump: You can mock me all you want, but I'm not sending British kids to die for your losing war.

@jakebrowatzke Irresponsible portfolio.

Very rarely is the market THIS wrong, but it does happen. Second time I'm down ~90% YTD since 2019. 2022 was the last time. Despite these bullbacks I've averaged 89.6% anualized returns since 2019 as measured by Interactive Brokers as of today, and am still up in the past year

@CyberrBandera @citrini I don’t think he’s calling for the end of the correction.

@citrini you are running ahead of the carriage, can't really bottom while Hormuz is closed. Unless you think over the weekend they deblock it

Likely going to put in a bottom on Monday…in the short term, at least.

@citrini Limit down -> draw in a few extra shorts -> reverse.

@TrumpTruthOnX Mean weaklings have a low self-esteem and have to hide it by acting tough. We all know the drill.

‘I always like to HANG AROUND WITH LOSERS’ — Trump ‘Because it makes me feel better’

@brantley67 @TrumpTruthOnX Iran was 10 minutes from the start, I’m sure.

@TrumpTruthOnX Cuba will take about 15 minutes. Plus, they will cooperate anyway.

🇺🇸"MAGA wants the US to be winning and protecting allies like Israel and Saudi Arabia. Cuba is next, by the way. But pretend I didn't say that, please." - Trump

@DannyDayan5 He can't fold, only call or raise the bets. The likely outcome is that he falls even harder. And have you seen the Poly polls? x.com/iapolls2022/st…

Trump has tried the TACO route. It failed. You can’t paper a physical issue. So he’s trapped. Iran is not negotiating, and will not surrender. His only option left is to go scorched earth, whatever that means to him, and violently wrap this up quickly.

@Ross__Hendricks Good job!

How to win in 2026… simply assume US policy makers will continue operating on full retard mode, and bet accordingly

@DannyDayan5 That makes my point. Cover today throughout the day, but I guess it will be down the whole session - that, I wasn't so sure about. I expected that a lot of people would be selling, especially because indices are breaking trend, but also short covering ahead of the weekend.

@SafeGamble Nope

Weak taco. Nobody cares about power plants. New deadline means the war goes on. We need spicy guac. Thank you for your attention to this taco.

@josephwang There hasn't been one closed session to support that and already you're making assumptions.

Interesting that gold and equities are now diverging. They had been tracking each other the past several sessions.

@biancoresearch @sappho2000 He saw it in a YouTube video.

@sappho2000 How do you know that?

When Trump announced a delay to the bombing on Monday morning, crude oil futures immediately fell 10%. Compare this to the reaction to yesterday afternoon, when he extended the delay another 10 days (red box). It was short-lived, and now, about 12 hours later, prices are meaningfully higher. I believe the market signal is that the Strait must be opened, and the military must do it. The longer we delay starting this process, the higher crude oil prices will go. All Trump did yesterday was add 10 more days to the ongoing supply shock. Any further statements by Trump about a deal are white noise to the markets. Only if the IRANIANS say the talks are going well will it impact markets. Why isn't the crude oil market substantially higher ($150+), like many are asking? I would argue that the market believes the military can open the Strait. But it will be "messy." In other words, there are no good choices, only ones that are less bad.

@biancoresearch Just losing credibility on top of the credibility he didn't have to begin with.

As a follow up, I'm not going to mince words ... If the real reason for the delay is that the military assets needed were not in place, then don't make up shit about 10 tankers going through the Strait (no evidence) or the Iranians asked for the delay (the Pakistanis, who are the intermediaries, said no such request was made). Say you'll keep talking, you're losing patience, and say every day the Iranians don't deal means the Marines are getting closer to the Middle East. The market would understand that, and the crude oil response (fall and stay down) might have been more favorable. This just looks like a TACO mess.

@partners_road @stevehou @medanielkennedy Said the clueless anon that hasn’t yet realized that the factor he’s bringing up changes absolutely nothing. Your narrow-minded rationale is like saying you can marry any woman you like because you’re stronger than her so she can’t beat you.

@stevehou @medanielkennedy You never served, did you? Ever been in a combat zone? If the answers to both are no, then you have no idea how to assess military capability/execution or what can be achieved on a battlefield between opposing forces.

It’s not easy to tell from counting the missiles, drones, targets destroyed and damages made. But it seems to me increasingly clear that the US has lost the war. Iran won by simply not capitulating. What’s unclear yet is what else has been lost for the US and potentially Israel.

@nickgiva1 It’s still a reasonable excuse to cover for short-term positions. Not because it’s true, but because there are enough idiots that think it is. Of course, there’s only so many times you can cry wolf and see the market rally. Even idiots have a limit to their idiocy.

So, if I get this straight, we are expecting a response to a peace proposal that the Supreme Leader has not authorized to be considered, the IRGC has either already rejected or not even received and that diplomats have not seen because none of them are in contact with the USA. Got it.

@biancoresearch Crying wolf only works so far.

@tradepal_app @stocktalkweekly Show me your portfolio, I need stuff to fade.

@stocktalkweekly Did he actually say this??

*PRESIDENT TRUMP: THIS IS BIDEN'S MARKET

@Ross__Hendricks Trump’s tweets are useful… …but only if you’re a market scalper. 😆

All the #oil panicans have been shaken out Their contracts are now held by those who know how to ignore Trump’s TACO threats and focus on what matters: oil flows

@DannyDayan5 I’d be careful going short into the weekend, though. Not that I’m very optimistic about it.

@SafeGamble Exactly. Got a nice few hour rally though!

@passedpawn @DannyDayan5 And even then you have to thread lightly because he may announce it and it’s false.

@DannyDayan5 Taco means less and less at this point unless it's an actual cease fire