Sound of a crowd

That's the trend that Trump accelerates: almost mechanically, as the US refuses to care for the world's "commons" (health, climate, etc.) China will step up. That's the great irony of our age: the US, which largely built the post-war order we live in, is increasingly viewing it as a constraint to be shed or even, in Marco Rubio's words during his confirmation hearing, "a weapon being used against us." (foreign.senate.gov/imo/media/doc/…). Rubio's words are extraordinary when you think about it, he literally said: "The postwar global order is not just obsolete; it is now a weapon being used against us." You can't think of a bigger indictment of the U.S. itself given that they forged what they now see as a "weapon". It illustrates how profound America's sense of self-doubt and insecurity is, like a parent who comes to fear their own child. And it removes any doubt as to who is the foremost revisionist power in the world today. Meanwhile China, often seen wrongly as a revisionist power, is very invested in preserving this order. The reason is straightforward: China's rise occurred within this system and through mastering its rules, so they have a deep interest in preserving its core economic and institutional frameworks. That's what the U.S. resents, and it's true it's got to hurt: China is winning the game which rules they devised. And so they want to change the rules, and China doesn't. What will be interesting to look at is how it affects the strategies of smaller states. The strategic calculus shifts dramatically when the power that used to be the guarantor of the established order becomes its main threat... Many states will likely become more and more sympathetic to China's commitment to stability and predictability. If you're a smaller and weaker state in the anarchy of our world, you need rules of the game that won't change overnight because a great power suddenly feels disadvantaged by them. From the U.S.'s standpoint the WHO may look annoying and constraining but from the standpoint of a smaller state it is extremely valuable for the very reason that it does constrain great powers' behaviors: however imperfect their rules and protocols are, they at least offer some guarantee that health crises will be managed somewhat collectively rather than through unilateral actions by the powerful. This all creates a profound paradox: the more the US tries to break free from what it now sees as constraints, the more it may actually accelerate its relative decline. By considering that the current order is a "a weapon", it will make many states progressively find China's willingness to maintain stability more attractive. It's the China "Do Nothing. Win." meme: the best strategy for China is to simply support stability.