Tracy Alloway

NEW ODD LOTS - INSIDE THE MARKET FOR DINOSAUR BONES 🦖 Fossils can sell for millions, just like art, so how are they priced and discovered? @TheStalwart & I speak with Sal Aaron, director at David Aaron Gallery in London and basically a dino bone broker podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd…

@stevehou @sieglerandrew Sorry, I thought the “possibly” was enough to qualify the sentence

@tracyalloway @sieglerandrew Tracy, with all of my admirations, this is technically a conjecture. A theorem is typically a conjecture that’s mathematically proven.

Whoah, excited to have inspired (possibly) a new economic theorem! Hope the name sticks, if not as enthused about some of the effects. open.substack.com/pub/andrewsieg… by @sieglerandrew

NEW ODD LOTS: Taiwan is the world's most perilous chokepoint @tracyalloway and I talk to @eyckfreymann, author of the new book 'Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, about the high stakes and high risk if China moves on Taiwan podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/how…

On a related note, last week @CFR_org announced they were updating and upgrading their swap lines tracker. “Outstanding PBoC swaps are at a record $4.3 billion, compared with $0 for the Fed.” cfr.org/articles/centr…

It is interesting that the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC came after recent swap line discussions with Treasury. Wouldn’t want to read too much into it but you could envision Bessent et al thinking of dollar liquidity provision as a useful tool to extract political concessions (rather than an obligation that comes with being the world’s reserve currency)

NEW EPISODE - PRIVATE CREDIT The private credit market is now said to be bigger than the market for junk-rated bonds at $1.8 trillion. How did it get so big? What’s its role in the overall market for corp financing? And how serious are all the recent headlines? @TheStalwart and I invited two veteran bond experts from Osterweis Capital Management to contextualize the market: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd…

@yyc_jk @TheStalwart We’ve done a lot from that specific angle (see episode with Blackstone for instance) and wanted to do come at it a little differently

@TheStalwart @tracyalloway love Odd Lots, but you have a whole episode on private credit from the perspective of public bond managers… slightly biased view. Can you please do an episode from the perspective of an actual private credit manager?

NEW EPISODE: Understanding the most viral chart in AI @tracyalloway and I talk to @ChrisPainterYup and @joel_bkr of @METR_Evals about what this chart of exploding model capabilities is actually showing, and why they think it's the key benchmark to watch podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/und…

@scottlincicome @aarmlovi @TheStalwart

@aarmlovi @TheStalwart @tracyalloway Cmon. We all know Big Egg is global. Who pays you?!? 🤣

It's tempting to dunk on mistaken takes from 2025 now that eggs are back <$2.50 Instead I hope we can bridge antitrust folks & "Captured Economy" market liberals to think about why egg markets returned to marginal cost And how to get other markets equally cartel-resistant

NEW ODD LOTS: The Orange Wave Sweeping Through Latin America @tracyalloway and I talk to @bloggingsbyboz about Delcyfication and Bukelefication across LatAm, and how a wide variety of popular leaders figuring out their relationship with the US podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/jam…

NEW ODD LOTS: @tracyalloway and I talk Google’s VP of search Liz Reid about the future of the good old fashioned search bar in an AI-dominated world podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/odd…

@getsharkproof That's literally what the newsletter is about.

Important distinction to call out here: That 7.9% is what food companies are paying right now. What you pay at the shelf is currently 1.9% year-over-year. That gap is temporary. Producer cost increases take 3-6 months to hit your grocery receipt. The fertilizer and plastics haven't landed yet. The Iran war fuel spike only started in late February. Groceries are already 29% higher than 2020 and another wave is loading

Here comes the food inflation Costs for food companies jumped 7.9% yoy in March (vs. 4.2% in Feb.) This is basically just from higher fuel costs - we're still waiting for the impact of higher fertilizer, plastics, etc. From the Odd Lots newsletter: bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

GUEST ANNOUNCEMENT @TheStalwart & I are very excited to host Fahmi Quadir, CIO of Safkhet Capital, aka "The Assassin," at our upcoming live show on May 7th in LONDON. We'll be talking about the tough job of running a short-only fund, current market valuations, AI and what she's looking at right now. Get your tickets here: events.bloombergevents.com/event/Odd_Lots…

"If the strait is opened tomorrow, we're not really going back to the previous energy world, we just can't. This is sort of like one of those the toothpaste can't be put in the bottle kind of moments." Bloomberg's @tracyalloway on the long-term energy impact of the Iran war.

NEW ODD LOTS: It's @DanielYergin @tracyalloway and I talk to the Pulitzer Prize winning author about why he sees a "different world" emerging in the wake of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/dan…

The Odd Lots episode on stock market valuations and free cash flow was one of those ‘aha’ moments. @TheStalwart @tracyalloway are the best there is in the political economy podcast game. youtube.com/watch?v=Cbddje…

Guest announcement Very excited that @tracyalloway and I will be joined by @APWChef, co-founder of The Devonshire, at our LIVE London Odd Lots on May 7. Get your tickets here, and watch us talk about the economics of designing a perfect pub menu. events.bloombergevents.com/event/Odd_Lots…

Brad Jacobs dropped by Odd Lots to talk with me and @tracyalloway about why his company $QXO is buying an insulation company for $17 billion. podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/bra…