Stable Investor

I am a SEBI Registered Fee-Only Investment Advisor (RIA). Details of the advisory services below: Financial Planning: bit.ly/StableFinancia… HNI Portfolio Advisory: bit.ly/StableHNIAdvis… Use the forms in these pages to contact for advisory/planning services

NO CHANGES in Small Savings Rates! Rates for April-June 2026 quarter remain same 👇🏻👇🏻 PPF (7.10%) - No Hike Sukanya (8.20%) - No Hike SCSS (8.20%) - No Hike NSC (7.70%) - No Hike POMIS (7.40%)- No Hike RBI FRB (8.05%) - Stays Same (Jan-Jun 2026)

Nifty50 CAGR for the last 1-10 years. As of 30-Mar-2026. So kind of CAGR for the last 1-10 financial years.

2 Years of 0% returns for Nifty50.

Current State of Indian Markets (30-Mar-2026) The table shows the % Fall of Indices (closing values) from their respective All-Time-Highs (intraday).

As you grow older, your wealth often increases. Years of saving and investing finally start showing results, but at the same time, your body starts deteriorating and energy starts reducing. For most people at least. So you may have more money than before, but you can do less with it. Travelling, enjoying hobbies, or even daily activities become harder. That’s why spending is important too, especially in your prime years when you have both the health and energy to enjoy it fully. I know this may sound odd coming from an investment advisor as he is asking you to spend money and not save all of it. But that is the right thing to do. Ensure your money actions are age-appropriate. Today is the youngest you will ever be going forward.

Flat Market Isn't a Warning. It’s an Invitation. If the markets have delivered little to nothing over the past two years or so, the first instinct for most investors (and specifically new ones) is to worry, and wonder if something is broken in the markets. But that is not true. Nothing is broken. Markets always move in cycles. If there are good days, then there will be bad days. If there are good years, then there will be bad years. And the very periods which feel most disappointing, i.e. when the returns are flat-to-negative, and when your patience is being tested and is on brink, is exactly after which the stage is being set for the next upcycle. Whether it happens from tomorrow, next week, next month or next year, no one can predict that. But eventually, pendulum of market will oscillate to the other side. Every bust lays the groundwork for the next recovery, just as every boom carries within itself the seeds of decline. A market that has gone sideways for 1–2 years is not a market that has stopped working. Rather it is a market that is quietly doing the most important work: rebalancing the risk-reward equation in favour of investor. Historically, buying after a period of stagnation or negative returns, dramatically improves the odds of strong future returns. There is data to prove it if you look for it. You can think of a flat market as a pendulum resting near the centre, or even swinging back toward value. Howard Marks refers to patience as a "time arbitrage". And that is what you need to show now. Patience. And the willingness to wait longer. The investors who will compound wealth meaningfully over the next decade and get rich will not be the ones who sold during these down years in frustration. They will be those who put their head down, accept these down periods, and keep investing as and when possible throughout this painful period. It is always like that. And when you think on these lines, then a consolidating/falling market, is not a disappointment but precisely the setup that long-term investors should welcome. Disc. - This is not investment advice, please. Always act in line with your risk appetite and investment horizons. And if in doubt, please talk to your investment advisor.

@CA__Ritu Simple excel

@StableInvestor Just one question- how do you prepare these beautiful infographics? Power BI?🙂

March 2026 was Painful. But it is over. Thankfully.

True. If you are investing for the long term, these 1-2 years of pain are beneficial and a blessing in disguise. You may not feel like that, but a few years down the line, you will thank yourself for investing during tough times like these.

What have you done with your SIPs in the last 2-3 months?

@JoshiEien Ek baar koi kuch lekar aaya tha 2019 mein. Uske baad Duniya aur Jeevan dono Badal gaye 😂

What should I bring from Wuhan?

After Nifty Smallcap250 made an All-Time-High on 15-Jan-2018, smallcaps had a very bad time till Feb-2020. And then the pandemic crash of March-2020 happened, when everything made a new low on 23-Mar-2020. In fact, from its highs of Jan-2018, the Midcap250 index was down almost -60.4% by then, and other active smallcap funds fell by -45 to -55% (see Phase 1 red column in table). After that, came the monstrous rally during which the smallcap funds rose anywhere from +400% to +800% between Mar-2020 and Sep-2024, when markets last made a new all-time high, specifically on 23-Sep-2024. This was Phase 2 (green column) in the table. Since then, it has been a painful grind for markets in general and smallcaps in particular. Check (ongoing) Phase 3 (last column) in the table. The table shows how wild things can be when it comes to smallcaps. Of course, this is like cherry-picking the periods to prove this point. But anyways, just wanted to highlight the volatility (both upside and downsides) in smallcaps. Hence, if you have or are investing in smallcaps, always be ready to remain invested for at least 5-7 years. Note 1 - The returns figures are in absolute % Note 2 - I have deleted the previous tweet from yesterday as it had incorrect data for the Mar-2020 to Sep-2024 period. The error was inadvertent. Also, do check another analysis of smallcap funds that I did a while back (added the tweet in comments of this tweet) #smallcaps #mutualfunds #sip

I have deleted the tweet from yesterday as it had incorrect data for Phase 2, and some people rightly highlighted it. Sorry. The actual (absolute) figures are, in fact, much higher, and indeed, the returns during that period were monstrous. Tweeting the correct table after this.

dear apple, the iPod needs to come back. not for nostalgia. for the parents who want their kids to love music and audiobooks without a browser, social media, and the whole internet attached to it

During the bull run, so many content creators were behaving like (self-proclaimed) investing geniuses. Flashing portfolios and screenshots, making confident predictions and whatnot. And now? Just plain radio silence. Buffett got it right a long time ago - "We only know who's swimming naked when the tide goes out." But the real tragedy isn't the embarrassment and disappearance of these people. Rather its that the everyday people who trusted them (blindly but wrongly), put in hard-earned money, are now left with losses. These creators made their money and moved on. Their followers didn't, and probably wouldn't. That's the real cost of following confident-sounding but random, biased and unqualified advice. It's a harsh lesson, but one that market always teaches. Be really careful who you listen to. It's always buyer beware. Always.

Everyone keeps talking about how Smallcap Funds gave multibagger returns from the pandemic lows of 2020 (March) till now. But what many people don’t see and realize is that the levels from where NAVs fell in March 2020, the smallcap funds already had 2 bad years preceding them from 2018-2020. And that patch of bad year (2018-2020), combined with a sharp correction in March-2020, brought down the smallcap fund NAVs to rock bottom, from where they moved up. Here are some numbers to show how things panned out before March 2020, which then set the platform for future returns. I have taken the current largest smallcap fund – Nippon India Smallcap Fund (Direct) as only an example below to illustrate and hence, please don’t consider it as a recommendation to buy/sell/hold of any kind. - The NAV of this smallcap fund was 25.17 on 1st April 2016. - Over the next 20 months or so, things were good and the NAV reached a high of 52.16 on 15-Jan-2018. So it actually doubled and went up 100% between Apr-2016 and Jan-2018. - Around this time, two things were happening (or about to happen). First was that just a few weeks back, SEBI had announced a massive recategorization exercise for mutual funds and hence, there was a lot of upheaval in the fund industry and portfolio during that time. The second major thing that happened a couple of weeks later on 1-Feb-2018 was that in the Budget-2018, the govt. shocked everyone by reintroducing the LTCG tax at 10% on equity investments. This was in early Feb-2018. - Now see what happens next. Not saying it happened because of the above two factors alone, but just look at the NAV movements over the next 2 years. - From the high of 52.6 in Jan-2018, the NAV gradually went down over the next 2 years to 41.7 by the end of Feb-2020. So that’s a fall of 20% over the period of 2 years. - You can imagine the patience of most investors at this point in time. After a 100% move from 2016 to 2018, they were now sitting on -20% from 2018 to 2020. - And then came March 2020 and the pain of the pandemic. - Over the next 3 weeks or so, markets witnessed a brutal crash. - The NAV was at 41.7 in end of Feb-2020. By 24-March-2020, it had fallen down to 26.8. A fall of 36% in 3 weeks of time. More importantly, and compared to the previous NAV-high made in Jan-2018 (of 52.6), the NAV was now down -49%. That was how brutal things were. So what I am trying to highlight here is that smallcap space not only fell 30-40% in March-2020 itself due to pandemic fear. But even before that, it had fallen about 20% between 2018-2020 due to various other reasons. And they had become highly undervalued and ripe for huge returns in future (of course with hindsight bias now). From there on, i.e. after 24-Mar-2020, everyone knows what happened. From the NAV lows of 26.8 in Mar-2020, the NAV made a new high of 200.25 in July-2024! That’s up a monster 650% in just over 4 years! For the record, at the time of this tweet, the NAV of the said fund is at 190, which is down -5% from its high of 200.25. So this is the story of how smallcap fund NAV behaved over the last 6+ years. Looking at returns post-pandemic lows from March-2020 onwards in isolation doesn’t tell everything. We also need to look back a little further about how things were before 2020. So while the small correction between 2018 and 2020 sowed the seeds for the future bull move, the crash of March-2020 only amplified things when it came to return figures. So while many are waiting for a 2020-like sharp fall in markets (to be honest, no one knows anything!), remember that right now we are sitting on huge returns in the recent past (last 2 years 2022-2024 returns for the fund are in excess of 90%). This is unlike 2020, where we had 2 years of -20% negative returns in the period 2018-2020. So while it is okay to wish for something, let's also have the right expectations about the future, if somehow the wish is granted in the near future 😃 That's it. Disclaimer - The funds/index shown above are for illustration only. It is not a recommendation to buy/sell/hold. Please get in touch with your investment advisor to get customized investment advice based on your risk profile and unique requirements. Don't Forget - Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.