Dan 🇨🇦🇲🇹

January '26 Update: R8 (not seasonally adjusted) added Unemployment is currently 44% higher than it was during the RE hoopla of 21/22. This means that the economy is far worse. Compare and contrast the sentiment for your own sake. Unemployment to increase from here.

@ManyBeenRinsed The illusion of scarcity

Bread & Circuses 🇨🇦

@AbeSimp12856621 Option 2: - Gulf states bombed to oblivion - Isreal project ends - Iran 'democratises', sells oil in USD and 'manages' the region on behalf of US to prevent Gulf oil development.

China gets $150 oil. Fortress North America will continue to form and develop its industrial, commodity and technological prowess. Canada will be the biggest winner and within Canada Alberta will be the most prosperous.

I am surprised that after nearly a decade of Trump people still fail to understand how he operates. Where are all those armchair TACO analyst? Wasn’t he supposed to TACO?

What U-3 And U-6 Actually Measure U-3 and U-6 are not competing numbers. They are measuring different layers of labor stress. U-3 is the narrow official unemployment rate. It counts only people with no job who have actively looked for work in the last 4 weeks. U-6 is broader and, in my view, much closer to the real condition of the labor market because it includes discouraged workers, other marginally attached workers, and people stuck working part time for economic reasons. That distinction matters. BLS is clear that the official rate excludes people who want a job but are not currently looking. So U-3 tells you what is happening inside the active labor force. U-6 tells you what is happening around the edges, and those edges are usually where labor market weakness shows up first. Why This Divergence Matters That is why the March divergence is so important. The official unemployment rate ticked down to 4.3%, but the labor force fell by 396K, household employment fell by 64K, and the number of people not in the labor force rose by 488K. So the cleaner U-3 headline did not come from a stronger labor market. It came from a smaller share of people being counted inside it. At the same time, U-6 rose to 8.0% because the hidden slack got worse. Marginally attached workers jumped by 325K to 1.944 million. Discouraged workers rose by 144K to 510K. People working part time for economic reasons rose by 101K to 4.497 million. And the number working reduced hours because of slack work or business conditions jumped by 269K. What The Report Is Really Saying Once you put the rest of the report next to that, the picture becomes much clearer. Participation fell to 61.9%. The employment-population ratio slipped to 59.2%. The average private workweek fell to 34.2 hours. Aggregate weekly hours declined 0.2%. That is not what a strengthening labor market usually looks like. It looks like a labor market that is thinning out and softening beneath the headline. Firms are not necessarily firing all at once, but they are cutting hours, relying more on underemployment, and pushing more people to the margins. BLS also notes that the monthly change in the unemployment rate carries a confidence interval of about +/- 0.3 percentage point, so a 0.1 point drop should not be romanticized or treated like some decisive improvement. U-3 went down because people fell out of the official count. U-6 went up because underlying labor demand weakened and underemployment worsened. That is not healing. That is late cycle labor stress hiding behind a cleaner headline.

@StraightFromDan It's on Bank of Canada website, what I said is 100% accurate. Velocity has nothing to do with inflation or interest rates, its a useless measure. Watch and learn.

Rate Hikes began nearly 4 years ago, why is the RE market still falling apart? MARCH SALES (GTA): '22 - 10867 ("UNPRECIDENTED RISE IN RATES") '23 - 7102 '24 - 6741 '25 - 5011 '26 - 4750 It's because rate hikes don't kill a RE market, a faltering economy does.

@JohnRavenda x.com/StraightFromDa…

@JohnRavenda x.com/StraightFromDa…

@Supervillian007 @ManyBeenRinsed @igetredpilled x.com/StraightFromDa…

@Supervillian007 @ManyBeenRinsed @igetredpilled x.com/WatcherGuru/st…

Builders across Ontario are increasing their prices for homes after the HST rebate. The greed is palpable. They don’t care about U - it’s all about lining their pockets. Disgusting.

@rudyten2001 Is 'they' in the room with you now?? 6% (annual) M2 @ normal Velocity = 2% inflation we have neither.

@StraightFromDan Canada's money supply was in deflation fora '23-'24 . There's a lag of 1-3 yrs until it filters to assets. It's turned up 10% all last yr we' ll get higher asset prices by yr end into next yr. At end of day rates will be lower than now & they'll continue to pump money supply.

@Spacecadet12321 only a totally clueless REtard would be using sale prices in a stagnant dead market to try and make a point.

@StraightFromDan Semi in Burlington for a mil... Enjoy

@JohnRavenda @ManyBeenRinsed A bigger take-away is that the masses were at one point so deluded that this approach to advertising seemed sane/normal/typical

@ManyBeenRinsed @StraightFromDan Would you trust this guy? With the biggest investment of your life??!

Canadian real estate agents pumping out spring market videos like …

@ManyBeenRinsed lmao, I pulled this one up from your timeline last week cause my best friend was asking about it while we were casually making fun of realtors over our semi weekly coffee

@Tiramisu7667 @MikeGillYYC Me with 0 debt and consciously avoiding a RE - debt slave trap - bubble while debt slaves that doubted me pay the toll.

@StraightFromDan @MikeGillYYC Me with 0 debt

Mathematically impossible to get ahead of debt in canada - Doesn’t matter if you are a person or the govt itself - ngmi

@BetrayedByPro 360 short Down 8% y/y

4950 at least for March

@Spacecadet12321 @Tiramisu7667 @RSchoales @ManyBeenRinsed who gives a shit, substantiate your bottom call or fuck off slave

@Tiramisu7667 @StraightFromDan @RSchoales @ManyBeenRinsed Lol make up your minds one says I'm in Brampton other one says I'm in Whitby? Which is it boy's? Schizophrenic couple ?

Fact Check: @ManyBeenRinsed has been calling for higher interest rates and saying mortgage rates will never go down for the last 2 years, his predictions and theories are contradictory and he’s a little bitch. The amount of tweets he’s deleted goes harder than all the other realtor bros deleting hundreds of tweets to pretend like they didn’t fuck up. It’s almost as bad as @ronmortgageguy who is the biggest hypocrite and fake promoter of information on the Canadian mortgage market. These “Furu’s” just want that $600 monthly ad revenue for their failed careers.