matt

Not a great update for the fertilizer/corn ratios this week: Urea - highest ever this time of year (2nd worst EVER) UAN - highest ever this time of year (3rd worst EVER) DAP - 3rd highest ever this time of year Potash - SOLIDLY PRICED, continues to show amble supplies

That Springer mine & mill acquisition for ~$20 million by Blue Moon $BMM $MOON.V is going to be a candidate for acquisition of the cycle Between this and everything else in the portfolio, the market cap here is just hilarious when you look at what the tungsten alone would be valued at if it was a pure play (see Guardian $GMTL market cap as a explorer/developer or Almonty $ALM as producer, both listed in the USA like Blue Moon)

If you want to be bearish on silver, you point out that the 1-month London silver lease rate has fallen over the past 20 days. If you want to be bullish, you point out that the historical average lease rate was around 0.0%, and that the lease rate is still far above normal. If you want to be bearish, you point to the downtrend in shares outstanding of ETFs backed by physical silver. If you are bullish, you point out how unusual it is that contango is getting smaller after a silver crash instead of larger. If you want to be bearish, you say rate expectations are rising faster than inflation expectations, which means real yields for the next two years are going up. If you are bullish, the most important point may be that the 1-year silver swap minus rates is still a few percentage points negative, when it should be positive.

Over the past 25 years, Germany has pursued an energy transition by phasing out nuclear power and expanding solar and wind—at a cost of around €500 billion in subsidies. The result: installed capacity has more than doubled, yet electricity generation has declined. The reason is structural. Reliable, dispatchable power was replaced by weather-dependent sources. The consequences are severe: rising energy costs, falling competitiveness, and growing pressure on energy-intensive industries. The key question remains: How do you run an industrial economy on a system that produces less when it matters most?

This is different! After hours yesterday, Trump tries to sooth slumping markets with another of his pronouncements. Initial reaction is as expected. Risk on. Stocks, bonds & gold rally and oil slips. But... the impact is short-lived and (almost) everything reverses - stocks down hard, bond yields rise & oil prices increase. The one exception is gold - up $100 per oz. currently. As a result, I decided to do a little gold miner stock buying this A.M.

Second order effects. Fertilizer plants are closing in India because they lack LNG. India is the world second largest sugar producer.

S&P 500 - $SPX / $SPY Now we had that bounce to $660-$665, what's next? Distribution suggests we revisit $652 and break it for good this time, time will tell. Again, it's just a fun exercise.