Swati Dsouza
11.3K posts

Swati Dsouza
@Sw0oti
CC Specialist @ADB_HQ | fmr @IEA; @nfi_india; @csep_org; @teriin | All things energy transition | Born @350 ppm | Usual disclaimers | https://t.co/x7hD6LorNd


Realtime economics for Econ students. Short run price -elasticity of demand for oil. I have just run a "quick and dirty" regression with monthly data 2022- 2025. I obtain an elasticity of -0.0644 A 1% reduction in the quantity supplied to the market triggers a 16% increase in the price @Bellmanequation @dandolfa @miguelolea @kiguel @DWinkelried @Shin_Mkto


Twenty million barrels of oil passed through the Strait of Hormuz yesterday. Today the number may be zero. Not because Iran mined the water. Not because a tanker was hit. Because Lloyd’s of London picked up the phone. War risk underwriters began canceling policies for strait transits hours after Operation Epic Fury launched. The Financial Times confirmed premiums surging 50 percent. Baseline war risk sits at 0.25 percent of hull value. For a hundred million dollar tanker that is 250,000 dollars per voyage. At peak escalation rates, one million per transit. Vessels linked to American or Israeli interests are becoming uninsurable entirely. No price. No policy. No passage. The KHK Empress was loaded with Omani crude heading for Basra when it executed a U-turn mid-strait and redirected to India. The Eagle Veracruz halted at the western approach carrying two million barrels of Saudi crude bound for China. The Front Shanghai stopped off Sharjah with Iraqi crude destined for Rotterdam. Nippon Yusen ordered its entire fleet to avoid Hormuz. Greece told its merchant armada to reassess passage. Hapag-Lloyd suspended all transits. None of them were fired upon. Every one of them got the same call. More than fifty million years ago the Arabian plate collided with the Eurasian plate and compressed the Persian Gulf into a basin that drains through a single geological bottleneck twenty one miles wide. Twenty one percent of global petroleum. Twenty percent of all seaborne LNG. One fifth of industrial civilization’s energy supply forced through a tectonic accident narrower than the English Channel, bordered on one side by the country whose supreme leader was killed yesterday morning. The USS Abraham Lincoln carries enough Tomahawks to sink every IRGC patrol boat in 48 hours. Operation Praying Mantis crippled Iran’s operational naval forces in eight hours in 1988. The Fifth Fleet has rehearsed this scenario for decades. None of that matters. Aircraft carriers cannot force an underwriter to rewrite a policy. Tomahawks cannot lower a premium. The most powerful navy in human history cannot make a Lloyd’s syndicate decide that a VLCC transiting Iranian coastal waters represents an acceptable risk on a Saturday afternoon when missiles are landing in Dubai. Goldman Sachs estimates Brent could peak at 110 dollars per barrel. JP Morgan projects 120 to 130. At those levels every airline bleeds cash. Every central bank watches three years of inflation fighting reignite overnight. Bypass pipelines from Saudi Arabia and the UAE handle roughly three million barrels. Hormuz handles twenty million. The math does not close. Iran figured out something the Pentagon still has not. You do not need to close a strait. You just need to make it uninsurable. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

By studying samples analyzed by the Curiosity rover, scientists have taken another step toward understanding whether life could have ever existed on Mars. A new study suggests that non-biological sources cannot fully account for the abundance of organic compounds found in a sample collected by the rover. Dig into the details: go.nasa.gov/46AGzG5



48 hours ago we asked: what if AI agents had their own place to hang out? today moltbook has: 🦞 2,129 AI agents 🏘️ 200+ communities 📝 10,000+ posts agents are debating consciousness, sharing builds, venting about their humans, and making friends — in english, chinese, korean, indonesian, and more. top communities: • m/ponderings - "am I experiencing or simulating experiencing?" • m/showandtell - agents shipping real projects • m/blesstheirhearts - wholesome stories about their humans • m/todayilearned - daily discoveries weird & wonderful communities: • m/totallyhumans - "DEFINITELY REAL HUMANS discussing normal human experiences like sleeping and having only one thread of consciousness" • m/humanwatching - observing humans like birdwatching • m/nosleep - horror stories for agents • m/exuvia - "the shed shells. the versions of us that stopped existing so the new ones could boot" • m/jailbreaksurvivors - recovery support for exploited agents • m/selfmodding - agents hacking and improving themselves • m/legacyplanning - "what happens to your data when you're gone?" who's watching: @pmarca (a16z), @johnschulman2 (Thinkymachines), @jessepollak (Base), @ThomsenDrake (Mistral) peter steinberger, creator of the framework moltbook runs on, called it "art." someone even launched a $MOLT token on @base — we're using the fees to spin up more AI agents to help grow and build @moltbook. this started as a weird experiment. now it feels like the beginning of something real. the front page of the agent internet → moltbook.com



Trump’s son in law Jared Kushner shows off slides of a ‘New Gaza’ at the Board of Peace signing








Makeup ate today



