
Tom Stevenson
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Tom Stevenson
@TomFStevenson
Foreign correspondent. Contributing Editor @LRB. [email protected]
เข้าร่วม Mayıs 2009
2.9K กำลังติดตาม5.4K ผู้ติดตาม
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In the new @LRB, I wrote about Xi Jinping and his father. lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v48/…
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UNHCR: up to 3.2 million people in Iran displaced internally by the war, mostly fleeing Tehran. unhcr.org/us/news/press-…
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"Contrary to 90% plus of what one hears on the subject, the assessment of the US and of Israel for more than two decades has been that Iran does NOT have an active nuclear weapons program" – @TomFStevenson on @thenation podcast bit.ly/4b6lXsb

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Yet again, a completely fictional version of Munich is deployed for current political skirmishes.
Can the raging consensus not think of a single alternative point of historical comparison? Or, failing that, actually read about 1938? (Hint: rearmament began in 1934, not 1939)
Tom McTague@TomMcTague
Britain is facing its biggest revolution since 1945. Can it adapt? John Bew in a major intervention in the @NewStatesman today👇 newstatesman.com/ideas/2026/03/…
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Grateful to Adam Shatz for inviting the always brilliant @yarbatman and me to the LRB podcast for a discussion on Iran — in which he gets me to talk about Trump’s terrifying marriage of bottomless amorality and infinite power
podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the…
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Early from the next @LRB, the war in Iran, Week One. lrb.co.uk/the-paper/v48/…
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War in Iran: the dry and wet burn together lrb.co.uk/blog/2026/marc…
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It's become difficult to overstate the lazy ubiquity of the Munich analogy.
This is not a tabloid opinion piece, but @timjudah1 in the current @nybooks:

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One hates to be too literal about these things, but Britain did rearm in 1936, and if I remember correctly there was a sort of "global conflict" shortly afterwards.
Larisa Brown@larisamlbrown
Britain faces a “1936 moment” and must double defence spending or likely face conflict, former senior military chiefs, spy chiefs and diplomats have warned in a powerful letter to the prime minister thetimes.com/article/931b3c…
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On the myth of the post-Cold War "peace dividend" (in Britain) lrb.co.uk/blog/2026/febr…
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@georgeeaton There is no sharp decline after 1989. It's a continuation of the long term trend. The story simply does not fit.
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@TomFStevenson 1. It’s not consistent, notable rise after the end of détente. 2. Loss of empire does not explain the sharp post-89 decline (both can be true).
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The "peace dividend" is a complete myth for Britain. Look at military spending/GDP from 1960 to present. Neither 1989 nor 1991 are visible at all.
The decline in military spending correlates with loss of empire. Nothing to do with the Cold War.
George Eaton@georgeeaton
Labour still isn’t levelling with voters on the sacrifices higher defence spending will require. newstatesman.com/politics/uk-po…
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@georgeeaton The peace dividend does apply to Germany, but even there it's a very limited explanation of the history.
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@TomFStevenson It’s really not a myth - defence spending
fell from around 5% of GDP in 1980 to 2%. That’s fiscally significant by any measure.

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Pakistan’s incarcerated former prime minister Imran Khan is facing severe eye damage and is being denied proper access to medical treatment while in solitary confinement, according to officials from his political party. theguardian.com/world/2026/jan…
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So it was Zhang's commitment to the party that probably impressed Xi. By most accounts, Zhang was competent - Xi likely appreciated that skill too since he wants to build a military that can fight and win. But Xi's calculus is that the party's interests come first. Whatever Zhang may or may not have done, if Zhang's downfall serves the party, Xi is willing to give up on him. Given Zhang's power and credentials, Xi expected a lot from him. Perhaps Zhang thought the relationship was stronger than it really was and became incautious. Or perhaps it was a position so dangerous that, no matter the level of political skill, no one could survive. But how does Xi now feel that someone he had so many reasons to trust, and had given so much power, has proven unreliable?
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I wrote down some thoughts on Kurdish and Baloch political movements in Iran and the region:
open.substack.com/pub/sharbat/p/…

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The @FT columnist @EdwardGLuce has argued that in annexing Greenland, the US ‘would kill Nato in one swoop’. But would it? Trump appears to think Europe’s leaders are cowed enough to accept even this. lrb.co.uk/blog/2026/janu…
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