Vincent

If Weather >= average, mood = "I love NYC!" Else mood = "WTF do I not live in southern California?!?!" Print mood.

@stockgutter @KoyfinCharts @unusual_whales @finviz_com @X Goof stuff ty, will give it a go

- easy access to option chains - better screening imo for US listed stocks - better all-in-one stock overview pages for each ticker - preset lists for each day - portfolio/watchlist heat maps - very intuitive UX - fantastic one-click overviews for futures/forex/crypto - URL access (so you can use a keyboard launcher from the operating system, eg mine is set up so no matter what app I am in I can pull up the stock overview page by typing alt-space to bring up the launcher then fv msft, or for any other ticker)

Do you plan on spending more, less or the same on investment research and trading products in '26 than '25? Research sites, charting services, subscriptions, substcks, etc...? For me it is almost certainly more (and I definitely spent more in '25 than '24)

@stockgutter @KoyfinCharts @unusual_whales @finviz_com @X What do you get from finviz that you don’t get from koyfin?

@VAntonFreeman among others, @KoyfinCharts , @unusual_whales (I am a lifetime member so no incremental spend), @finviz_com , @X , several subs that are either on sbstck or ghost or beehiiv, TradeLog to prep trades for tax guy

@stoked_on_waves @lurker8679 U gents have a view on what the NewCo NFE $400mm EBITDA biz worth multiple (x) wise?

@lurker8679 That makes more sense. Gotta pay execs too

I can't quite tell if the $NFE RSA is bullish? 35% of equity in some new company that's also a stub and loses brazil assets? but it could be very squeezy at the least

@BongCapital How much actual concern is there in arb community about Middle East equity checks for deals? Ie., idea that WBD / PSKY deal may falter if / when mid east money backs out.

Got a long wait at the airport, AMA about cooking / merger arb / pod shops. (Probably won’t answer in detail about single names or comp but you can try asking)

@pekwat SaaS bois being lumped with crypto bois

@SowingAlphaSeed How did you do shorts -100%?

Feedback more than welcome!

Portfolio update. I made this account 1.5 years ago to explore active investing. I've found that I don't have the time or inclination to spend much time on individual stocks, but I do enjoy portfolio management. I'm moving to a slightly more regimented multi-manager approach.

Tears of unfathomable sadness

@orrdavid The next 4 months!

A contrarian call today: Within a year, the USA will have its first recession since the GFC. The cause will be a combination of the large new tariff tax, restarting student loan repayment and the debt market rolling over as covid vintage debt comes due and cannot be paid.

@orrdavid Got it 👍🏻. What do you ballpark your actual beta is

@VAntonFreeman During a melt up, fundamentally sound portfolios - rather than narrative driven ones - the portfolio's beta is going to drop. To know what your actual beta likely is, you adjust it up some. Like a shooter a range, adjusting their aim based on the wind.

@orrdavid #2 regret impacts 4, 6, 8, 9 and 10.

These are the biggest regrets that people have on their deathbed. A long time ago I inverted each, going out of my way to avoid these life pitfalls. Number 2 is a big exception today since I technically work all the time. But if I love what I do, is that the same thing?

@TheNarrenschiff @HatfieldCapital They had an opening during the content wars to sell the biz. Disappointing mgmt (McCarton). Value trap microcap shitco. Once you get in, painful to get out.

@HatfieldCapital They make most of their money off of production services (doing the work for Disney, Netflix, Max, et al). They do live action stuff like Highway Thru Hell they own in Canada and it does well. First foray into animated IP was a big hit (Last Kids), but they haven't followed up.

A covid move off a tweet. What a world. Look forward to what’s next.

@orrdavid 👏🏻

I guess I got that one wrong! Now it seems there just isn't a plan at all. I wonder if this was just the first wave of many random tariffs...

@ClarkinM sounds like they're not selling anytime soon

“Through our exploration of strategic alternatives, we’re gaining valuable insights that are sharpening our focus on key value drivers for sustainable stockholder value." $LMNR - Is this a sale process or just a consulting engagement? Strange situation.

@RagingVentures Expectation of rate cuts making dividend names more enticing?

Why is $VZ so strong today? Forced covering from de-grossing? Short interest isn't that high though.

@ClarkinM @marginofdanger Yeah, I agree that incentives > capital allocation here. Just hard to trust the various parties given… various parties.

@VAntonFreeman @marginofdanger Eh with a CVR like structure, you want to ensure fairness more than capital allocation acumen

$WBA seems interesting at $11.27: -$11.45 paid out in cash in mid Q4 2025 plus a non-transferrable CVR -CVR of up to $3/share on VillageMD ($WBA owns $3.4bn of debt in VillageMD plus an equity stake) -70% of proceeds on VillageMD goes to CVR holders -WBA has invested billions into VillageMD health clinics -VillageMD does $5-6bn of top-line and burning cash, but company believes can do $300mm of EBITDA. IRR based on CVR value (assuming two year payout post close): $1/share = 13% $2/share = 20% $3/share = 26%

@ClarkinM @marginofdanger Bad because he presided over so much capital destruction?

@VAntonFreeman @marginofdanger Good, he owns 10%