Vogt WeatherWatcher

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For our region, I don't see much threat for severe thunderstorms outside of maybe a weakening severe thunderstorm from central PA into eastern PA. Primary focus this evening will be on heavy downpours and occasional strong wind gusts.

Rain is transitioning to heavy snow as our front pushes through Pennsylvania. Snow reports out of Western Pennsylvania have been around 2-4”+. Comparing current observations to some of the mesoscale guidance, it appears that the transition to frozen precipitation is moving quicker than modeled. This is likely because of the abundant frontogenesis at 850-700mb, supporting more potent dynamic cooling as soon as the front passes through and temperatures plummet. We’ll likely see a brief period of moderate-heavy snow, perhaps as far east as Eastern PA, around or just after midnight. Any accumulation of snow that does fall will likely be on grassy surfaces up to 1”. #PAwx

Due to the threat of severe weather this afternoon, all after-school activities are canceled. Go home, and stay safe!

Severe Thunderstorm Warning including Lehighton PA, Palmerton PA and Jim Thorpe PA until 2:30 PM EDT

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey and Pennsylvania until 7 PM EDT

@FloridaTropics1 The thunderstorm to its southeast of Lake Mary had very strong 50-60 mph winds.

Tornado Warning for Seminole County!

WATCHING MONDAY... Confidence is increasing for some significant severe weather as a strong cold front with a negatively tilted trough moves through the region. Warm moist air will surge in from the south with abundant wind shear that will aid destabilization in the atmosphere, causing widespread, powerful thunderstorms to develop. The primary hazard looks to be damaging winds, with a QLCS/squall line looking probable, but hail and a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out and remain fully in play. #PAwx #NJwx #NYwx #MDwx #DEwx #VAwx #WVwx

@Eweather13 People also forget ENSO forecasts are not as accurate during the Spring months due to seasonal changes. El Niño coming? Sure, but not super, IMO.

💯 Modeling is suggesting we might see a strong niño. Yesterday I talked about what that could mean for summer, fall and winter…IF that happens. But modeling may not be right and can easily change. Warming in the equatorial Pacific is likely…but how much warming is still TBD. Weak niños have different and often more negligible impacts.

PHI issues Winter Weather Advisory valid at Mar 6, 12:00 AM EST for Monroe [PA] till Mar 6, 10:00 AM EST mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/vtec/f/2026-O-…

Wayne Highlands School District is now CLOSED on Wednesday, March 4, 2026.

Wayne Highlands School District is operating on a two hour delay on, Wednesday, March 4, 2026.

@mikestanislaw NASA FIRMS data suggests fires southwest of Malta in the middle of the ocean.

👀

A light wintry mix will overspread the area tomorrow morning just after sunrise across Eastern Pennsylvania and Northern New Jersey. This will likely impact the morning commute, causing travel and perhaps some school delays and closures in higher elevations. Temperatures will go above freezing for most by lunchtime, but some elevated areas will hold onto frozen precipitation throughout the day tomorrow. Snow accumulations of around a C-1” and ice accumulations of up to 0.10” are expected. Take some extra time traveling tomorrow morning! #PAwx #NJwx #NYwx

PMSD ALERT: All PMSD schools will operate on a Virtual Instruction (FID) day schedule on Tuesday, March 3rd, 2026.

All Delaware Valley Schools will be using a Flexible Instruction Day, Tuesday, March 3, 2026. Students, please log in to Schoology at your scheduled start time to begin your day.

For perhaps the last time this winter: FINAL Prediction for Tuesday, March 3, 2026. A thread-the-needle situation for tomorrow creates a strong debate between Regular Days and Virtual Days. vogtweatherwatcher.com/2026/03/02/fin…

The Final Prediction for tomorrow, and likely the Final Prediction for the 2025-26 Winter is under construction now, with some overhauls likely compared to yesterday.