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1. Hormuz blockade duration 2. Warsh hawkish read-through to front-end rates 3. ASM read-across to ASML, AMAT, LRCX, KLA 4. DT-TMUS combination as European M&A signal 5. ZEW collapse vs ECB dovish pricing Read full report here: vivemacro.com/daily Full cross asset analysis and positioning: Full analysis, cross asset implications, session breakdown and watch list here: vivemacro.com For informational purposes only.

Wednesday 22 April 2026 - Vivé Daily Macro Iran Islamabad talks collapsed before they started. Vance's trip postponed indefinitely. Trump extended ceasefire but kept the Hormuz blockade. The market is no longer pricing resolution. It is pricing extended stalemate. Tuesday's tape: SPX -0.63%, NDX -0.42%, DJI -0.59%, RUT -1.01% 10y 4.29% (+4bp), DXY 98.39 (+0.3%) WTI +3.2%, Brent +3.6% (blockade stays) Gold -2.1% (ceasefire extended) Every US sector red except Energy. This is repositioning, not resolution. The structural signal underneath: ASM International Q1 beat. Q2 guide €980m +5%. H2 > H1 explicitly confirmed. AI-led demand "accelerated further" this quarter. Following Monday's Amazon-Anthropic $100bn commitment. Two days, two confirmations. AI capex is not slowing. Three hits the tape missed: 1. German ZEW collapsed to -17.2 (exp -5). EU ZEW -20.4 (exp -3.6). Sharpest drop since early 2022. 2. Deutsche Telekom-T-Mobile in merger talks. World's largest wireless operator by mcap. 3. Warsh hearing: balance sheet smaller, no long-dated Treasuries. Five things to watch today:

OBE: Rolled Dec ’26 10s up into 15s + 17.5s. Extracted ~38% of width and ~170% ROC. Position had become delta-heavy so reset into higher strikes and convexity. Material PnL — Vivé paid for the foreseeable future.

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1. Warsh confirmation hearing, Fed independence framing 2. Kuwait force majeure on oil exports, first GCC-level declaration 3. Amazon-Anthropic read-across to Meta, Google, Microsoft capex 4. Lagarde language less dovish than ECB cuts priced 5. Uber-Lucid stake to 11.52%, Estée Lauder-Puig €5bn financing Read the full report here for free: vivemacro.com/daily Full analysis, cross asset implications and watch list: vivemacro.com For informational purposes only.

Tuesday 21 April 2026 - Vivé Daily Macro Iran ceasefire expires Wednesday. Vance, Witkoff and Kushner in Islamabad today. Tehran has not confirmed attendance. Trump overnight: deal "signed tonight", ceasefire "highly unlikely" to extend, "bombs will go off" if it expires. Three framings. One deadline. Monday's tape holds two incompatible positions: SPX -0.22%, NDX -0.31%, DJI flat, RUT +0.58% WTI +4.0%, Brent +4.5% overnight Gold -0.3%, 10y 4.25%, DXY 98.06 Bitcoin +2.6% Equities priced resolution. Oil is pricing the opposite. One is wrong by Thursday. Underneath the geopolitics: Amazon-Anthropic: $100bn over 10 years, up to 5GW of capacity. Largest hyperscaler-foundation-model commitment announced to date. Apple names Ternus CEO eff. 1 Sept. The AI capex story is not slowing. It is institutionalising. What to watch for during this session: (see next post)

1. Wednesday presidential deadline on Iran 2. Fed Waller and Daly, divergent reaction functions 3. ECB Demarco, Kazaks, Kocher against a fresh sovereign downgrade 4. Marvell-Google custom silicon confirmation 5. Eli Lilly-Kelonia, QXO-BLD seventeen billion, consolidation accelerating Full analysis, cross asset implications and watch list: vivemacro.com/daily vivemacro.com For informational purposes only. All decisions remain with the reader.

Monday 20 April 2026 - Vivé Daily Macro Friday closed pricing Iran de-escalation. The weekend reversed it. Hormuz reclosed, TOUSKA intercepted, Vance-Witkoff-Kushner in Islamabad today against a Wednesday deadline. Equities priced resolution. The ground is pricing escalation. The gap trades first. Friday's tape: S&P +1.2%, Nasdaq +1.5%, Dow +1.8%, Russell +2.1% WTI -7.9%, Brent -9.1% on ceasefire read Gold +1.0%, 10y 4.24%, DXY 98.10 Bitcoin -1.3% Crude is short into a confrontation that did not end. Energy opens long gamma. What the market is not pricing: Belgium downgraded Aa3 to A1. UK Rightmove -0.9%. Siemens signalling European capacity flight to the US. AI capex accelerating via Marvell-Google custom silicon talks and Meta's 20 May reallocation. The structural story is being drowned out, not displaced. This week to watch:

Cross asset correlation breakdown creates systematic risks through market maker hedging requirements and momentum strategy crowding vulnerable to rapid reversal scenarios. Read full report here: vivemacro.com/daily vivemacro.com All decisions remain with the subscriber.

Watch: Weekend Islamabad Round Two mediation (Pakistani Army Chief Munir facilitating). Fed speakers Daly 10:30 AM, Waller 1:00 PM policy guidance after Miran's rate cut revision. Housing data 08:30 ET facing structural confidence headwinds beyond interest rate sensitivity.

April 17, 2026 - Vivé Daily Macro Federal Reserve policy paralysis intersects with systematic volatility mispricing as markets price geopolitical resolution before it materializes. VIX at 18.11 reflects institutional vol selling despite oil implied volatility at 51%. Technology concentration at 27% of S&P 500 creates structural amplification risks.

@DelB0yTr0tter Vivé

@AntonGoldhofer Thank you for your positive feedback, Anton.

@Vivemacr0 Love it. Especially the central bank section.

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@Vivemacr0 Amazing Add-on to the already incredible product. This weeks report (BKSY) was already a good call.

Full report: vivemacro.com/daily Published free before the US open, Monday to Friday. The systematic weekly framework that turns this into trade opportunities: vivemacro.com All decisions remain with the subscriber.

Watch: April 22: Ceasefire expiry. Extension confirms the price. Breakdown reverses energy, gold, and defensives hard from thin hedge positioning. Islamabad talks next week: Hormuz reopening and Iran nuclear enrichment are the two unresolved issues. PPG pass through: watch chemicals, logistics, packaging for similar announcements in the next two to three weeks.

16 April 2026 - Vive Macro Daily Markets are pricing peace before it is signed. S&P 500 and Nasdaq at fresh all-time highs. Gold -1.1%. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. The ceasefire expires April 22. Both sides are denying the extension.