Wakem Capital Management

@APompliano What’s your argument in favor of a rate cut?

The Federal Reserve has left interest rates unchanged. They should have cut interest rates. Just another mistake in a long line of mistakes throughout Jerome Powell's tenure as Chairman.

@APompliano Is this post real? I can’t find it anywhere?

@CryptoCon_ have you considered the “4 year cycle” has less to do with the belief that this is how things always will be and more to do with US monetary policy… 2017 bear market became compounded by interest rate hikes… same story in 2022… today, odds of rate CUTS are likely coming in the near future

Bitcoin data is clear, 80k was not a "bear market bottom." The same traps that were set up in the last bear market for FOMO investors are being put out in this one with different labels.

@CryptoCon_ What evidence besides charts, on-chain metrics, TA supports your view of a pro-longed bear market? Or is it just that… charts and TA?

Exhibit A of why a 30% correction is not the bear market low. NUPL has a long way to go before reaching the .382 Fibonacci retrace cycle bottom. People will say whatever they can to contradict the "obvious" 4-year cycle. It always manages to hide in plain sight. Of course, nuances are to be expected. "But sentiment is so bad!" Actually, this is the most optimistic I've seen influencers and commenters at any low. At other lows, it's been "Recession coming!" or "Black swan coming!" Now it's "Bear market low is in", "Business cycle", "Lengthening cycle." But we can just rename all these to "It's different this time."

@CryptoCon_ At what price would you admit that your analysis is incorrect? New ATH in 2026?… just curious

Picture perfect phase 4 (cycle top) in October 2025 for Bitcoin on 3-week Sotchastic RSI. The metric is also returning to the stochastic floor, which only appears at the end of the cycle.

@CryptoCon_ What’s the definition of a KST cycle top?

Bitcoin KST cycle top is locked in with the 4th bearish crossover of the cycle. And if there were any doubts, the metric is doing its signature "plummet off the screen" that we see after every 4th cross. Other 4th cross dates: - February 2014 - February 2018 - December 2021 Good performance from this phase indicator!

Tether bought more gold last quarter than every central bank

@APompliano Why?

The Fed should cut rates 50 basis points in December.

On the y axis, we have 2025 months (Jan-Nov) and on the x-axis we have years related to when whale's coins were purchased and have since moved in a particular month across 2025. Recently, many posts on news media, twitter, etc proclaim that "old whales are dumping bitcoin" in the past 1.5mos, but the data does not support those stories. Almost 7 million BTC transacted onchain in 2025. Most BTC came from 2024 transactions. One big 84k BTC 2011 whale (highlighted yellow) sold in July ‘25. And some 2017-2023 sellers (also highlighted yellow). But that's it. Interestingly, contrary to popular belief, the whale selling has tappered down Aug-Nov versus earlier in the year (Jan-Apr)

Relative to the Short Term Holder cost basis, +1 standard deviation move in MVRV has typically signaled local tops while the opposite is true of local bottoms in -1sd moves... At $95K per coin, we've seen just the third instance of a -1sd move of MVRV relative to the STH cost basis in the past 3 years. Prev instances include BTC at $74K in Apr ‘25 and BTC at $49K in Aug '24...

What makes you so certain of a “solid rate cutting cycle”… Truflation currently shows real-time CPI at 2.67% today. CPI 7d: +8.9% CPI 14d: +18.4% CPI 30d: +19.5% CPI 60d: +36.4% CPI 90d: +63.6% If the Fed is dependent on its dual mandate and labor market picture begins to marginally improve, current CPI trend is dangerous for assuming that “solid rate cutting cycle” plays out

This will go down in history as the Great Shakeout of 2025, and I'd like to offer some perspective, some positivity and hope for people in the crypto market here. Lots of people are clearly hurting now, we've been delivered multiple punches recently and lots of people are showing signs of losing faith, some partially and some altogether. Losing money is painful and it is without doubt an emotional game. Do bare in mind that everything is only ever a paper win or loss until you have actually sold. The greatest victims in this market are those who think they can outsmart or guess where the market is going by leveraging and longing or shorting the market. Trading with leverage in the crypto market is financial suicide - just stop it, it is the fastest way for people to destroy their chances within what is the greatest wealth accumulation opportunity of all time. I have always remembered Raoul Pal's ( @RaoulGMI ) position on it, leveraging has always been a key part of his @RealVision's "Don't Fuck This Up" thesis, and today those words couldn't be more abundantly clear. Lots of people are crying about market manipulation, yet they are out there placing leverage, long or short positions. Is this not a bit like playing poker and letting everyone know what your cards are before they lay their hands? All we are doing here is allowing the exchanges, the market makers, the institutions and the whales to enter the market with far greater financial power to counter positions and liquidate them, which is what is repeatedly happening. I've no idea how people do not recognise this. For everyone who are shouting the market is over, or are sitting there fearing as much, just take a step back and look at the bigger picture. We are on the verge of a solid rate cutting cycle. Trillions of dollars of debt across the world needs to be refinanced. QT is about to end which will be followed buy QE, massive liquidity is going to be flooding in. The entire global monetary system is in the process of being migrated on-chain. No bear market has ever been born out of fear, it comes from peak euphoria, which we clearly haven't even touched. We have key regulatory acts that are on the cusp of being announced. Financial institutions are buying crypto. Actual countries are buying cryptos. ETF's are being approved. We are in the glorious position of being able to take part in what is the greatest financial revolution of all time - let that sink in. The reality is the crypto space has never, ever looked this bullish before and what we are seeing now will go down as the greatest shakeout. Don't become a victim of it. I have always said that the key to maximising the gains in this market is to buy solid utility projects with real fundamentals that will attract real adoption. Buy with conviction, hold and do nothing. Shut out the noise, and simply do nothing. It is also the key to riding the multiple drawdowns that are characteristic within every bull cycle, and now is no different. Crypto isn't for the faint-hearted, you have to program yourself differently when navigating this market. Those who overestimate their own intelligence, who are constantly buying in and selling out, changing lanes, thinking they can predict the market, taking long and short positions and chasing dick-driven greed through insane leveraging will invariably become the fallen soldiers of the market, and will ruin their chances in the greatest wealth accumulation opportunity of all time. And those who buy, hold, shut out the noise, and do nothing, will most likely achieve the success they set out to achieve. I can't emphasise this enough but for anyone who is looking to educate themselves and to gain an advantage in navigating the crypto space, and who want to develop an understanding of the things that truly drives asset prices, take a look at joining Real Vision @RealVision, it is by far the best thing I ever did. The team are incredible and it has a fantastic community for you to connect with. The information and insights they part with is pound-for-pound the most valuable alpha and intelligence that you could possibly absorb. The intelligence and understanding you will gain will help you to sail through these shit storms with a far greater calmness, to take a step back from the chaos and shut out the noise. As always, stay calm and don't fuck this up. Holders will outperform traders.

@APompliano @fundstrat @APompliano what are you thoughts on Truflation showing major uptrend in CPI? Currently measures real-time inflation at 2.67%…. CPI 7d: +8.9% CPI 14d: +18.4% CPI 30d: +19.5% CPI 60d: +36.4% CPI 90d: +63.6%

Tom Lee (@fundstrat) is VERY bullish on stocks, bitcoin and crypto.

@APompliano Truflation measures real-time CPI at 2.44% (+7.5% WoW and +10.5% past 14d)… this is the highest reading since January of this year.

The Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points. The bull market can continue.

Open Interest on Hyperliquid post October 10 liquidation event has dropped ~40% Interestingly, daily trading volume last week increased by ~17% However, in the seven-day post-liquidation cascade, daily liquidations on Hyperliquid increased by an average of 70% per day, indicating the majority of traders failed to “make it all back” as emotions run high

@APompliano @Ashcryptoreal @APompliano what do you make of BTC falling ~18% on Oct 10?… surely, such volatility isn’t characteristic of a reserve asset. Curious about your opinion on what’s needed for BTC’s “digital gold” thesis to be more legitimate/widely accepted?

Yesterday I told you it was time for the great rotation from gold into bitcoin. Today the rotation started. (h/t @Ashcryptoreal)

Check out @TheKusamarian latest podcast featuring CEO John Vincent and his commentary on Wakem Capital’s inception, crypto markets, and more

$BTC is currently in the longest ever stretch [182 days] without a +25% upside move within a rolling two-week period Last time we went this long without one was the Jan 2023 lows Law of large numbers or weak sentiment?

A study conducted by Electric Capital shows Ethereum as the #1 ecosystem for new developers in 2025 so far

ACH still clears around $20 trillion in quarterly payments, but stablecoins are beginning to catch up. From barely registering in 2021, stablecoins now process over $7 trillion a quarter, steadily eating into ACH’s share of digital dollar settlement.