Jake Walker

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Old Crop Price History:

Positioning vs Reality into USDA Corn, beans, and wheat all show a consistent theme into the March 31 reports: stocks building, demand mixed, and acreage uncertainty high. 🌽 Corn Report-day history: typically +10–15c moves → volatility event Demand strong (record exports), but stocks expected record high (~9.2B bu) Feed usage likely overstated → bearish risk if USDA adjusts 🌱 Soybeans Biggest wild card Crush strong, but exports weak → demand flat YoY Stocks seen highest in 6 years (~2.1B bu) History shows largest downside reactions (-45c type moves) → risk skew lower 🌾 Wheat Quiet but heavy Stocks building again (highest in years) with mediocre demand Less volatile historically, but bias = supply pressure 📊 Acreage Setup (Big Trade Driver) Expect corn ↓, beans ↑ (ratio ~2.40 favors beans) Corn acres ~95M, beans ~85M BUT… last year USDA missed corn acres by +3.5M → confidence low ⚠️ Key Trade Takeaways Market pricing big supply, not demand strength Beans = most downside risk Corn = tug-of-war (strong demand vs big stocks) Expect volatility spike (range expansion incoming) 👉 Bottom Line: This is a positioning report, not just fundamentals—watch acreage + stocks combo for direction. New Crop Price History:

🌽Morning Grain Rundown: Grains under pressure as crude breaks on cease-fire (Iran Rejected) headlines; Trump floating a 1-month pause with Iran but market trading as some soft de-escalation might be on the way... Corn • Weakness tied to energy, but bull story still building beneath the surface. • Russia bans ammonium nitrate exports (40% of global trade) → fertilizer shock intensifies. • Goldman + BofA: fertilizer crunch could cut global yields. • US acreage seen ~93.5M (below Ag Forum) → tighter supply risk. • Weather split: storms East / hot & dry West → early stress potential. • “Bend but don’t break” market with strong new crop support.Soybeans Beans mixed: meal strong / bean oil hit by crude selloff. • Fertilizer story extends to beans → global yield risks rising. • Brazil harvest ~2/3 done, exports likely to slow. • Record shipments last week, but lack of flash sales = demand concern. • New crop holding firm — bulls still have edge into Plantings report.Wheat Wheat weakest of the complex as war premium fades. • Funds could rebuild shorts given heavy global supplies. • Plains: warm/dry trend persists, rain uncertain → weather risk not gone. • Russia raising export tax + boosting production outlook.Bottom Line #WalkSquawk #Grains

🌽Morning Grain Rundown 3/23/26: Grains reversing early strength as crude whipsaws on Iran headlines saying talks didnt happen & Trump signaling a 5 day pause in strikes + potential deal, pulling some risk premium out of the market. Corn • Corn faded with crude but bullish story still intact. • Fertilizer shortages remain a major unresolved issue → supports new crop. • Managed Money now ~229k contracts long (13-month high). • Strong exports + ethanol margins + lower acreage expectations = solid demand backdrop. • Weather: Midwest turning warm/dry this week. Soybeans • Beans pressured early with crude drop, but funds still heavily long (~202k). • Brazil harvest 65% complete, China easing import rules. • Crush margins exploding (~$2.70/bu) → key demand support. • Weak U.S. exports remain a headwind, China demand still needed. • Watch: If crude breaks lower → bean oil could drag beans down short-term. Wheat • Wheat volatile but holding structure. • Extreme heat + dryness in Plains raising crop stress concerns. • Managed Money still net short (~13k) → potential fuel for upside. • Russia exports rising, but weather + geopolitics still dominate. Bottom Line ➡️ Markets trading headline-to-headline with Iran ➡️ Energy = driver of direction ➡️ But fertilizer, weather, and fund positioning keep the bull case alive #grains

🌽Morning Grain Rundown 3/19/26: Corn • Corn extending gains as energy + fertilizer disruptions reshape the market. • Brazil imports 85% of fertilizer → shortage risks rising fast. • China releasing reserves, India scrambling for supply → fertilizer = new gold. • Iran strikes on energy infrastructure hitting nat gas → fertilizer production. • BofA: Ag markets haven’t priced full impact yet → sees material upside risk. • Funds + Wall Street flows could accelerate if Dec corn breaks ~498.5. Soybeans • Beans holding firm despite bearish fundamentals (big Brazil crop, weak China demand). • Why? → Energy is the new driver. • Wartime = fuel, fertilizer, freight > traditional fundamentals. • Meal breaking out (3.5-month highs), shifting leadership from bean oil. • Upside risk remains while Hormuz disruption persists. Wheat • Wheat following through higher on energy + fertilizer shock. • Plains turning hot/dry (90s, no rain) → weather premium building. • BofA sees significant upside risk not yet priced. • Global supply still heavy, but macro overrides fundamentals for now

Morning Grain Rundown 3/18/26: Grains mixed to start but macro just turned slightly more supportive after fresh Middle East headlines. 🚨 Iran flags Gulf energy infrastructure as targets 🚨 Reports of South Pars gas field strike 👉 Not a full risk-on move… but enough to keep energy elevated 🌽 Corn Flat to slightly higher still the most stable market Demand + firm basis underpin, funds likely to defend length on dips 🌱 Beans Down ~2c fundamentals still heavy (China delay, carryout risk) Bean oil + crude = key support to watch 🌾Wheat Up modestly seeing a bit of geo + weather premium Still fund short so rallies can extend if headlines persist but other areas remain cheap for US to import #WalkSquawk #Grains

🌽Morning Grain Rundown 3/17/26: Grains stabilizing after yesterday’s shakeout, but flows + macro still driving the bus. Market just flushed weak longs and now testing whether funds defend length or press risk-off. Corn • Hit by spillover from beans + weak energy • Funds sold ~35K, OI -23K • Still heavily long → fuel for volatility • Demand story intact → dips seen as buying opportunities • Value zone ~$0.05–$0.10 lower Soybeans • Biggest break in 3 years → long liquidation event • China demand now in question after summit delay chatter • OI -22K → funds unwinding fast • NOPA crush strong (+12% YoY) = underlying support Wheat • Holding up best of the complex • Weather risk building (freeze + heat stress Plains) • US crop conditions slipping • Black Sea prices firm, exports slow Macro Overlay • Crude = key driver • Iran war + China uncertainty = headline risk • Funds deciding: reload longs or continue liquidation? #WalkSquawk #Grains

@BFW They literally call Detroit Hockey Town!

I need examples of a US city with at least three pro sports teams where the NHL team is top two in fandom in the city. Boys here said Detroit, DC and Tampa. I think I’ll give them DC and Tampa, but contest Detroit. Some guys said Minnesota, I think Twins are bigger than Wild.

@crewsin1234 Funds are way too long and are running for the exit..

@WalkSquawk That's not why the market is down.

🚨 Bessent doing damage control this morning. Treasury Sec. Scott Bessent says it's “false” that Trump would delay the Xi summit unless China helps reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Key points: • US-China talks in Paris were “very good” • Any summit delay would be logistics • Markets should “absolutely not react” Important after soybeans dropped on the China headline risk overnight...

@COTTracker Farmers definitely welcomed it and stepped into that "Fund" bid

@WalkSquawk Exactly right, and the world supply picture gives this legs. US corn S/U sits 3pp above the 5yr average, so funds aren't buying domestic tightness. They're buying global tightness: world S/U at 23.7% vs. a 26.6% average - below trend and widening.

Something interesting showing up in the latest COT report… Funds aggressively added to corn. Managed Money: +140,297 contracts on the week ending 3/10/26. That pushed funds to roughly 193k net long corn. What’s notable is the trade estimate only had funds around 47k net long going home Tuesday. Meaning the move into corn was much larger than expected. Zooming out, this lines up with a bigger macro setup developing: • Oil pushing toward $100 • Fertilizer prices rising • Bloomberg Commodity Index breaking higher • Funds rotating back into commodities When energy spikes, it tends to spill into agriculture. Energy → fertilizer → crop input costs → grain markets. We saw this chain reaction during the 2006–2008 commodity run. Corn may be starting to attract macro commodity flows again. Oil might be the headline… but grains could be next. #WalkSquawk

Soybeans fell 2%+ overnight after Trump said he could delay the Xi summit if China doesn’t help reopen the Strait of Hormuz. That matters because China is the #1 buyer of U.S. beans, and traders were hoping the meeting would spark new export demand. Funds were also long the most beans in 16 weeks, so when the headline hit the tape it triggered long liquidation. Beans broke back below $12/bu. Politics driving price action again. #WalkSquawk

🌽Morning Grain Rundown 3/13/26 Grains softer to start the day after closing near the lows yesterday as crude slips and the U.S. dollar hits a 3½-month high, though funds continue building long positions. Corn • Corn under light pressure with farmer selling this week, but funds added ~29k OI yesterday as longs build. • CONAB expected to peg Brazil corn at ~139.8 MMT. • Argentina harvest ~10% complete. • U.S. drought improved to 46% vs 55% last year, but hot/dry Plains weather developing late next week. • LSEG estimates U.S. corn production could fall ~7.2% YoY if lower acreage materializes. • Market looking ahead to Prospective Plantings, where acreage could drop sharply due to rotation, high fertilizer costs, and better soybean economics. Soybeans • Profit-taking this morning after a strong week as crude pulls back and the dollar rallies. • Brazil exports to China temporarily halted due to new phytosanitary protocols. • CONAB expected to estimate Brazil crop ~179.3 MMT. • U.S.–China talks this weekend ahead of April Beijing summit could support beans on hopes for purchases. • Argentina crop conditions improving, while U.S. drought eased to 47%. Wheat • Wheat steady after failing at retracement resistance yesterday. • Russian export prices at 6½-month highs, while dryness expands across Black Sea and U.S. Plains. • Southern Plains could see 90°F temps next week, raising crop stress concerns.

@snazzygoth69 was he even out there? Didn't notice.

how is elmer söderblom doing tonight guys is he doing good

@McCartyDangles has he ever hit anyone after this.. seriously asking?

I don't care if you ever score again Just hit people man

The Rasmussen I want to see every game

🌽 Morning Grain Rundown Grains finding support again this morning as energy rebounds and geopolitics remain in focus. Neutral WASDE aside, the market remains focused on energy, geopolitics, and tightening vegoil supplies, with funds still willing buyers on breaks. Corn • Corn recovered yesterday to finish near session highs after early weakness. • Overnight support coming from crude oil rally after reports Iran may be mining the Strait of Hormuz. • March WASDE a non-event with no U.S. balance sheet changes. • Ukraine crop +1.7 MMT pushed world stocks slightly above expectations. • Mexico proposing to prioritize domestic corn over imports something to watch as Mexico is the largest buyer of U.S. corn. • Ethanol production expected 1.108 mb/d vs 1.095 last week. Soybeans • Bean oil ripping higher again, lifting the entire soy complex. • WASDE largely neutral; U.S. carryout unchanged, crush raised +5 mb on strong margins. • Fire reported at Cargill crush plant in Wichita, temporarily offline. • Biofuel demand rising globally: – Brazil pushing B17 biodiesel blend – Indonesia accelerating B50 testing • Beans continue to show strong resilience since early Feb, with dips quickly bought. Wheat • Wheat bouncing as energy strength returns and global tenders emerge. • Taiwan, Algeria, and South Korea issuing import tenders overnight. • Plains forecast turning drier for the next two weeks. • Brazil wheat output cut 14.5% YoY, while India heading for record production. #WalkSquawk #Grains

@WingedWheelPod The hockey god's don't like the Wings in March. Two crazy deflection goals from Florida. Why Todd didn't challenge too many men on ice for panthers game winning goal?

No words. Let's hear yours ⤵️ #LGRW

Walk-Squawk Morning Wire! Please check it out every morning..link below. China bought 37 soybean cargoes last week; all from Brazil. None from the U.S. Cash markets: • Midwest bean basis still weak • River bids softer • Brazil harvest pressure dominating exports Weather turning critical: • Argentina rains coming • Southern Brazil drying → safrinha corn risk Plus: • Oil volatility driving macro • Biofuel policy update • WASDE recap Full breakdown in today’s Morning Wire ↓ open.substack.com/pub/walksquawk… #WalkSquawk #Grains

Back to your regular scheduled programing #WASDE